Bummer: UK Met Office Admits That We Are Seeing Things That Could Have Happened Thanks To Natural Variability

“But, but, but, it could have included some components of Hotcoldwetdry too!!!! Please, believe us, we have bills to pay” (via Junk Science)

(Financial Times) Cities along the US east coast face a looming “sea level rise crisis” from a growing number of disasters as severe as hurricane Sandy, according to research on links between extreme weather and climate change.

Except, sea level height increases are pretty much average for what one would expect during a mild warm period. The 20th century average was about 8 inches. The average over the last 7,000 years, since the end of the massive sea rise post-glacial age is…6-8 inches. One would expect much more during a warm period, because sea rise would be much less if not negative during the cool periods.

Human-made global warming was a factor in at least six intense weather events last year, the study shows, from the superstorm that hit New York in October to the record melting of the Arctic and US heatwaves.

Is “climate change”, ie, man induced hotcoldwetdry, involved in 4 of the last 5 winters being harsh around most of the world? How about Europe and other parts of the world having virtually no spring in 2013? How about Antarctic sea ice setting a record for growth? How about this cool year, where over 60% of the US being at or below average? How about the Arctic doing very well this year, thank you very much? How about the Arctic not being ice free in 2013 as Warmists predicted?

Climate change also had a role in Spain’s drought and torrential New Zealand rains, though natural weather variation was a leading culprit in each case, and no strong connection was found in other prominent 2012 weather events such as the US drought.

“We don’t have evidence that we are seeing things that could not have happened without natural weather variability doing its stuff,” said Peter Stott of the UK Met Office, one of the report’s editors. “But potentially climate change can in some cases add something on top.”

Of course Stott had to add in part of their religion. But what he’s mostly referring to would be localized effects from the Urban Heat Island Effect. And let’s not forget that since 2005 landfalling hurricane activity has dropped precipitously. No Category 3+ strikes since October 2005. Only one hurricane, Issac, since October 2008 (and it could be argued that Issac wasn’t a hurricane). Sandy was not a hurricane at time of landfall, per windspeed. What made it so bad was the combination of a really cold cold front.

Anyhow, admitting one has a problem is the first step in solving it. Admitting nature is the primary driver is a step towards actual science.

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach.

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