The Great Pause Is Now At 18 Years, 3 Months

Despite all the yammering from Warmists about 2014 being the “warmest year ever!!!!!!!!”, a dubious allegation, based on estimates, and, really, even if their estimates are correct, can you tell the difference between 58.46 and 58.46? Anyhow, the satellites disagree. Anyhow, here’s Christopher Monckton of Benchley, with his monthly highlight (Warmists will surely attack him personally, because they have no way to counter the actual data, and, hey, personal attacks are what Lefties do)

Since October 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS [1] temperature plot pushes up the period without any global warming from 18 years 2 months to 18 years 3 months.

(WT note: if you hit the link you can click the photo and see it full size)

Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 3 months since October 1996.

The hiatus period of 18 years 3 months, or 219 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.

Of course, Warmists will call this “cherry picking”, since they completely misunderstand, possibly on purpose, that the time period is simply working back from current time. If you said that you’ve been at a company for the last 18 years and 3 months, that would not be cherry picking. Cherry picking is using a specific time frame, such as how many Warmists use 1960-1990 to establish a baseline, even though 20 of those years were seeing a reduction in temperatures, leading to news organizations and climate scientists to wonder if the Earth was heading into an ice age.

The Great Pause is a growing embarrassment to those who had told us with “substantial confidence” that the science was settled and the debate over. Nature had other ideas. Though approaching 70 mutually incompatible and more or less implausible excuses for the Pause are appearing in nervous reviewed journals and among proselytizing scientists, the possibility that the Pause is occurring because the computer models are simply wrong about the sensitivity of temperature to manmade greenhouse gases can no longer be dismissed, and is demonstrated in a major peer-reviewed paper published this month in the Orient’s leading science journal.

It’s only an embarrassment to the honest climatologists. The rest of the cult has all sorts of excuses, talking points, and distractions.

The basic point here, and I would highly recommend reading the entire article, including the “key points” near the end, is not that there hasn’t been any warming since 1850, because there certainly was. Nor that there were spikes, such as during the time period of 1979-1996 (1997-1998 are ignored, being part of a massive El Nino). The debate is not over warming, but causation. Warmists say it is mostly/solely the fault of Mankind. Skeptics say it is mostly/solely caused by nature. The primary culprit for Warmists is CO2, what they refer to as “carbon pollution”, despite being a trace gas necessary for life on Earth, and what you are expelling from your nose and mouth every couple of seconds or so. Yet, despite rising CO2 levels, we have an 18 year and 3 month pause.

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach.

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