The New Consensus: The Global Warming Hiatus Was Real

The New Consensus: The Global Warming Hiatus Was Real

This will leave a mark on all the Warmists who proclaim that the Hiatus, otherwise known as the Great Pause, was not real

(Daily Caller) A scientific consensus has emerged among top mainstream climate scientists that “skeptics” or “lukewarmers” were not long ago derided for suggesting — there was a nearly two-decade long “hiatus” in global warming that climate models failed to accurately predict or replicate.

A new paper, led by climate scientist Benjamin Santer, adds to the ever-expanding volume of “hiatus” literature embracing popular arguments advanced by skeptics, and even uses satellite temperature datasets to show reduced atmospheric warming.

More importantly, the paper discusses the failure of climate models to predict or replicate the “slowdown” in early 21st century global temperatures, which was another oft-derided skeptic observation.

“In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble,” reads the abstract of Santer’s paper, which was published Monday.

“Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed,” reads the abstract, adding that “model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.”

Many Warmists did actually say there was a Pause, then would provide all sorts of excuses as to why it occurred and why this totally doesn’t mean that we’re not all doomed in the future. Usually, their excuses would involve things like it being caused by nature, which brings to mind a significant question: “if the Pause was caused by natural variation, why can’t most of the warming be due to natural variation?”

What is notable here is that they are admitting that the models are, in a simple word, crap. 95% of them were wrong. Warmists are fond of throwing out a talking point about if 97% of your doctors telling you you’re sick, why would you ignore them? Well, if 95% of your doctors were wrong, would you listen to them?

As Powerline notes “The lead author, Ben Santer, is one of the leading climatistas, so this article can’t be written off as “denier” distortions. (One of the co-authors is Michael Mann.)”

Let’s note yet again that the debate is not about warming: there was warming, it started in the mid-1900’s. The debate is on causation. If the models, based primarily on the release of carbon dioxide from the works of Man, what the Warmists un-scientifically refer to as carbon pollution, are mostly wrong, that would mean that their whole Cult of Climastrology is based on a lie.

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach.

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