Warming “Pause” Excuse #9: It’s All A Coincidence
We can add it to the list, via Climate Depot
Climate Depot Analysis: ‘There have been at least nine separate explanations for the standstill in global warming’ — 1) Low Solar Activity; 2) Oceans Ate Warming; 3) Chinese Coal Use; 4) Montreal Protocol; 5) Readjusted past temps to claim ‘pause’ never existed 6) Volcanoes 7) Decline in Water Vapor 8) Pacific Trade Winds 9) ‘Coincidence’
Remember, Warmists call this “science”
(Bishop Hill) Gavin Schmidt and his colleagues are looking at the hiatus in surface temperature rises and considers why the CMIP5 ensemble all got it so wrong. In their new paper they explain that the reason for this is not — as wild-eyed readers at BH might think — that the models are wonky. In fact it’s all down to an incredible, incredible coincidence
Here we argue that a combination of factors, by coincidence, conspired to dampen warming trends in the real world after about 1992. CMIP5 model simulations were based on historical estimates of external influences on the climate only to 2000 or 2005, and used scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs) thereafter4. Any recent improvements in these estimates or updates to the present day were not taken into account in these simulations. Specifically, the influence of volcanic eruptions, aerosols in the atmosphere and solar activity all took unexpected turns over the 2000s. The climate model simulations, effectively, were run with the assumption that conditions were broadly going to continue along established trajectories.
Apparently, if you go back and rework all the forcings, taking into account new data estimates (add half a bottle of post-hoc figures) and ‘reanalyses’ of old data (add a tablespoon of computer simulation) you can bridge the gap and explain away the pause.
As Bishop Hill notes, much of this goes to Why The Models Failed, and how Schmidt and other Disciples Of Gore go back and rework the data. It’s all a coincidence that the pause happened.
But, wait, could there be a 10th?
(BBC) New research suggests a strong link between the powerful smell of pine trees and climate change.
Scientists say they’ve found a mechanism by which these scented vapours turn into aerosols above boreal forests.
These particles promote cooling by reflecting sunlight back into space and helping clouds to form.
The research, published in the journal Nature, fills in a major gap in our understanding, researchers say.
It’s not just pine smell, but aerosols themselves, especially coming from Mankind. And, of course, the warming was mostly/solely caused by Mankind in Warmist world. It’s just nature fighting back or something. Strange that pine trees smell when it’s cold, too.
One does have to wonder: if the science is settled, why do they keep releasing papers?
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This may shock many of my conservative fans, but I cannot remain quiet about my support for the singularly brilliant