The Early Exit Poll Trap: How Democrats Will Try To Suppress Republican Turnout Today

by John Hawkins
TPNN Contributor

On Election Day, Republicans usually turn out in greater numbers than Democrats. So, while the Democrats will naturally do everything they can to improve their own turn-out, they’re also likely to try to suppress Republican turnout.

How do they do that?

Simple: By convincing Republicans that they’ve already lost and therefore, it’s a waste of time to vote.

Can this work? Well, in 2000 Florida was incorrectly called for Gore 10 minutes before the polls closed. That undoubtedly inspired thousands of Republicans to shrug their shoulders, say “What’s the use?” and go home before the polls closed. As a result, we had a cliffhanger in that state that wouldn’t have happened if Republican voters knew that their vote was going to make a difference in the election.

Incidentally, you may wonder how anyone could have possibly gotten that call so wrong. The answer is the early exit poll data. It heavily favored Gore – which is not unusual.

You see, for whatever reason, the early exit poll data ALWAYS heavily favors Democrats. We don’t know for sure why that is, but it may be because the sampling is overdone in urban centers, the pollsters oversample certain groups (like young people or women), or perhaps even because Republicans are less likely to talk to people asking them questions after they vote.

But, what we do know is that the bias is very real.

In 2004, for example, the early exit polls: appeared to show that John Kerry was going to win the election in a walk. You all remember President “I served in Vietnam and those Swift Boat Veterans are liars” and his oversexed VP who cheated on his cancer-stricken wife, don’t you? Oh wait, that didn’t happen, did it? That’s because John Kerry didn’t win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and even SOUTH CAROLINA like the early exit polls predicted.

Now, here’s another little twist to consider: Not only do the early exit polls lean Democrat, they’re not publicly released. That means that people can just MAKE UP NUMBERS and there’s no immediate way for the public to check whether the data is accurate. Again, there were allegations that this happened in 2004.

“Okay. I’ve now got a third source. Here’s what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether they represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what’s going on today.

…The exit numbers I posted were posted in order for me to debunk them. The Wonkette numbers are false. Or they are at least not exit poll numbers from today. It is possible, from what two sources tell me, that they are tallies of the early voting – conducted by the Democrats. That’s plausible.”

Given the dirty Chicago-style campaign that Obama has run, it would be no surprise if something very similar happens this year.

So, be aware of what’s going on, don’t freak out if the early exit poll numbers lean toward Obama and most importantly, spread the word. Don’t let these Democrats convince Republicans that their votes don’t matter with exit poll data that isn’t going to match up to the final results.

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