The Real Poll Numbers


The media are trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.

On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the 13 states studied, he improved, or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.

Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 269 he needs to win.

To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida, where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio, where he’s down by only one.

If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50 percent or less — Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.

The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50 percent of the vote.

So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.

Related Articles

8

Complex Societies Need Simple Laws

“If you have 10,000 regulations,” Winston Churchill said, “you destroy all respect for law.” He was right. But Churchill never

0

Wimping Out on Repeal

Top Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Washington, is walking back comments attributed to her that Obamacare can’t be repealed. But

1

Speaking Truth to Power at Modesto Junior College

On Sept. 17, Army veteran Robert Van Tuinen decided to celebrate U.S. Constitution Day by handing out copies of the

comments

Share This

Share this post with your friends!