The Real Poll Numbers

The media are trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.

On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the 13 states studied, he improved, or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.

Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 269 he needs to win.

To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida, where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio, where he’s down by only one.

If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50 percent or less — Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.

The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50 percent of the vote.

So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.

Also see...

Related Articles

0

The Case Against John Kerry

FacebookTwitterEmail If you’re talking about John Kerry’s record, then regrettably, you must begin by discussing his time spent in Vietnam

11

The Seven Most Disturbing Moments So Far in Barack Obama’s Presidency

FacebookTwitterEmail Picking out the most disturbing moments of Barack Obama’s presidency is kind of like trying to choose the wettest

1

Facing Reality on Carbon Dioxide

FacebookTwitterEmail Though you wouldn’t necessarily know it based on news coverage, the United States in the reign of President Barack

Share This

Share this post with your friends!