Redistricting in California, Illinois and Others May Lose House GOP Majority


Cross-posted at UNCOVERAGE.net

At long last, the “Citizens” Redistricting commission in California has come up with its proposed new voting maps.:  It’s not good news for Republicans in the very blue state and the same tactics are being used nationwide.:  Re-districting is the “stealth” way Democrats will try to win back the House of Representatives majority.: 

The maps proposed for: California on the basis of:  2010 census information: are subject to more adjustments, however, as I reported a few months ago, this “citizens” redistricting : commission has been completely hijacked by leftwing and Latino interests.

What is happening in California with redistricting is perhaps more radical and pronounced, but redrawing of district lines is happening everywhere in the country. Illinois’ outcome : is also worrisome for Republicans, yet there seems to be no discussion nationally about what the 2012 result may be.

My prediction for 2012 is:

Vote fraud perpetuated by a plutocracy of Democrat/big Labor/big Latino/big LGBT interest groups will be unprecedented in our nation’s history. Redistricting will “write” many : Republicans out of their Congressional and statehouse districts. Redistricting may cause the GOP to lose the majority in the House of Representatives in 2012. Mass amnesties of illegal aliens prior to the election will add Democrat voters, up to 20 million votes. Barack Obama may sweep the House and Senate majorities, and the country will be swept into socialism.

My recommendation has been for two years: Decertify public employee unions nationwide or suffer the consequences. The way it is now, American taxpayers are funding Democrat candidates through public employee salaries, from which dues derive, which go to union organizations which fund only Democrats. GOP and conservative voters pay their discretionary income to fund their own political candidates. Their taxes fund the opposition. If that cycle isn’t broken, America is lost.

My other recommendation::  Someone from the GOP needs to go to court to enjoin the re-districting in all states until after 2012.

Doubt me?

Here a number of links to source so that you can review the proposed California district maps, and a variety of analyses:

“Proposed New Legislative Districts Could Put Malibu Under Republican Leadership”–Malibu Patch.

“San Joaquin Valley political battle lines take shape” — Fresno Bee.

The Problem With Blanco, An Editorial” by FairtheLines.org — a conservative watchdog website has been following the redistricting process. This is an editorial about the chairwoman, Maria Blanco, who is a former executive of MALDEF, the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Foundation, and her hostility towards conservatives on the commission.

MALDEF’s website shows how deep this Latino group is embedded in the redistricting:

“The MALDEF California Assembly Plan creates an additional 4 districts where Latinos can effectively elect candidates of choice, increasing the count from the current 13 to 17 total Latino effective districts. New Latino Protected Districts were created in the Central Valley, South Los Angeles, Los Angeles County’s South Bay, and in the Inland Empire.

The MALDEF California Senate Plan creates an additional 3 districts where Latinos can effectively elect candidates of choice, increasing the count from the current 6 to 9 total Latino effective districts. New Latino Protected Districts were created in Los Angeles County’s South Bay, South Los Angeles, and in Central California.

The MALDEF California Congressional Plan creates an additional 4 districts where Latinos can effectively elect candidates of choice, increasing the count from the current 7 to 11 total Latino effective districts. New Latino Protected Districts were created in the Central Valley, Los Angeles County’s San Fernando Valley, the Inland Empire, and in San Diego.”

“Does the CA GOP Have a Death Wish? Yes…”

“The odds-makers at the Sacramento Bee (Brown’s Countdown, Day 127. May 16, 2011) say California’s citizen-run redistricting process will help California Democrats gain a magic 2/3 majority in both legislative Houses. If the mapping turns out as predicted by the Bee, all the Democrats will need to do in 2012 is defend Democrat-leaning seats and win 1-2 toss-ups per House. These majorities will be the ticket to passing coveted tax increases and a flood of other legislation dear to throbbing Democrats hearts.

Another Sacramento Bee article (Congress Watches California Remapping From Afar. May 16, 2011) states that the Democrats have established the National Democratic Redistricting Trust to raise $12.5 million for a nationwide redistricting litigation effort. What are Republican’s doing about it? “Nothing,” says Rep. John Campbell, R-Irvine.”

According to an elections specialist interviewed by the Los Angeles Times’ Richard Simon, the lines proposed by the commission could cost Republicans four of the 19 seats they now hold in the state’s 53-member congressional delegation.

“It’s an earthquake with a tsunami,” said Doug Johnson, a redistricting scholar with the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College.

Draft Congressional Plan: [MAPS] or [DATA: CRC First Draft Political Data]

Draft Assembly Plan: [MAPS] or [DATA: CRC First Draft Assembly Political Data]

Draft Senate Plan: [MAPS] or [DATA: CRC First Draft Senate Political Data ]

The liberal-loving Washington Post is THRILLED with the proposed California map:

“In the end, Democrats came out as the clear winners, and if the plan is enacted as proposed, Democrats would have a good chance to expand on their current 33-to-19 advantage in the state’s delegation by several seats.

Democratic redistricting expert Paul Mitchell projects that the proposed map includes 32 Democratic seats and five Democratic-leaning seats, with 13 Republican seats and three seats that lean Republican. If each side won the seats that were solidly or leaning in their favor, Democrats would see a net gain of three seats in the delegation in 2012.

Similarly, Republican consultant Matt Rexroad estimates the Democrats’ advantage at 3-5 seats, though other Republicans place the estimate slightly lower and insist they will also get new opportunities from the map.

If Democrats could net between three and five seats, it would make California one of their best states in the coming round of redistricting, along with Illinois.”

Politico (also left-tilting) has this analysis:

Nothing is set in stone. California’s new draft map is just that — a draft. Before the final version comes out in August, the redistricting commission is expected to make some changes. But in many cases, the new districts will look similar — if not identical — to what’s been presented

Democrats

Rep. Jerry McNerney

McNerney, who’s long been at the top of Republican target lists, won reelection by fewer than 3,000 votes in November in a GOP-leaning, Stockton-area seat. But now he finds himself with two potential new homes — both of which offer him far safer footing. McNerney can move to a newly crafted and vacant San Joaquin County-based district that solidly favors Democrats. Or, should 79-year-old Rep. Pete Stark retire, he can run in an even more favorable Northern California district. Either way, McNerney moves way down the endangered species list.

Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard

Roybal-Allard, the first Mexican-American woman elected to Congress, is in a tough spot. She’s unlikely to run against Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra in an East Los Angeles-area district where Becerra would be expected to perform strongly, or in a nearby Compton-based seat that would favor an African American. She could benefit if 74-year old Democratic Rep. Grace Napolitano retires or Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters vacates her seat — both of which would open up a Latino majority district for her to run in.

Rep. Lois Capps

Democratic Rep. Lois Capps has long skated to relatively easy reelection bids. But now she’ll find herself in a less Democratic-friendly, Southern California-based district and already has a formidable foe in former GOP Lt Gov. Abel Maldonado.

Rep. Laura Richardson

Richardson, who’s been drawn into the same district as fellow Democratic Rep. Linda Sanchez, could look to run in a newly created Compton-based seat. But no matter where Richardson runs, she’s likely to come under attack from a potential Democratic foe over ethical run-ins surrounding her personal finances.

Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman

Sherman and Berman are longtime nemeses. Following the last round of redistricting, Sherman accused Berman and his brother, Democratic consultant Michael Berman, of orchestrating a redistricting plan that left him weak to a primary challenge from a Latino candidate and famously accused his fellow congressman of “stabb[ing] me in the back.” Now the two are pitted together in a San Fernando Valley-based seat — and it looks like a matchup could be on. Just hours after the map was released, Berman, a former House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, released a statement vowing that “there is no question that I would want to continue representing” the area. The race would be a barnburner since Sherman has more than $3 million stockpiled.

Republicans:

Rep. Jeff Denham

Denham is positioned to run in a Stanislaus County district that’s far less GOP friendly than the seat he currently holds. Denham can also take one for the team and run against either Democratic Rep. Dennis Cardoza or Democratic Rep. Jim Costa. But that would pit him against a sitting incumbent in a Democratic-leaning district — which doesn’t sound too appealing.

Rep. Jerry Lewis

Lewis, a 17-term veteran, has been at the top of retirement watch lists — doing little fundraising and not committing to run for reelection. But the new lines could add some fuel to his tank, with the commission drawing up a new Republican-friendly Inland Empire seat that would seem to fit Lewis perfectly.

Rep. Elton Gallegly

There’s no denying that Gallegly is in a tough spot. Under the draft map, Gallegly is drawn into a Los Angeles-area with powerful House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon. Some Republican officials are privately suggesting that Gallegly could alternatively run in a Democratic-oriented Central Valley district, but neither option seems great for the 77-year-old congressman.

Rep. David Dreier

Things look bleak for Dreier, the 16-term House Rules Committee chair who’s been placed in a Democratic-leaning, Latino-majority seat that makes him ripe for a challenge. Dreier could alternatively run for a nearby Ontario-based district, but that would put him in firmly Democratic territory. One option some Republicans suggest: Dreier could work out a deal with Lewis and run for the Inland Empire seat. But Dreier has raised little money, and the new lines are bound to increase speculation that he’s looking to throw in the towel.

Rep. Gary Miller

Miller faces few good options. He’s been drawn into the same heavily Asian American and Democratic-oriented seat as Democratic Rep. Judy Chu — a no-go for him. Miller could try to run against fellow GOP Rep. John Campbell for an Orange County-based district, but that seems like a stretch because Campbell would have plenty of his own money to spend.

Rep. Dan Lungren

Lungren, who’s already on Democratic target lists, just became that much more vulnerable. The nine-term congressman has been drawn into a slightly GOP-leaning, Sacramento-area seat that offers him less protection against Democratic physician Ami Bera, who’s running against Lungren again after waging a strong challenge last year. This race goes to the top of the watch list.

California Citizen's redistricting commission


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