Quasi-Liveblogging The Election Results

Quasi-Liveblogging The Election Results

6:05: My final predictions. 70-80 seats in the House and 7-9 seats in the Senate. That 70-80 range puts me above pretty much all of the big name prognosticators out there including Rothenberg, Cook, Silver, Barone etc. So, I may very well looking like a goat when the night is over, but I do think we’re in that range and I don’t think I can justify tamping down on the numbers anymore simply out of caution.

6:15: Here are a few numbers to keep in mind as the night gets started: The number of seats we need to take back the Senate? 10 seats. That seems to be out of reach. To pull it off, we’d need to win everyone we’re supposed to win, the toss-ups, and then a race we’re supposed to lose like O’Donnell (R) vs. Coons (D), McMahon (R) vs. Blumenthal (D), or Fiorina (R) vs. Boxer (D).

The number of seats we need to take back the House? 39.

The best night for either party in the last 50 years? It’s 56 seats. We pulled that off in 1994.

6:23: The early indications are the at turnout is going our way. From The Campaign Spot:

Indicator Number One: I am told that one Democratic strategist, helping a television network with Election Night analysis, just declared that the Democrats were experiencing something on par with mass murder. The GOP counterpart looked at the same numbers and concluded the Democrats are, so far, not getting the urban turnout they need; suburban and rural areas are seeing big turnouts.

Indicator Number Two: One Republican who is seeing early indicators in Florida says, “If this holds, we win everything.”

6:26: From Drudge Report:

EXIT POLLS:

Arkansas: Boozman (R) over Lincoln (D)
Ohio: Portman (R) over Fisher (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) over Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) over Feingold (D)

None of those results would be surprises.

PS: Bet Tommy Thompson is kicking himself for wimping out in the Wisconsin race. People thought he might be the only guy who could beat Feingold early on. Happily, that turned out not to be the case.

7:04: If, as expected, Whitman, McMahon, and Fiorina all lose, I hope it will at least kill the idea that self-financing candidates are a good idea. They don’t always lose, but their win/loss record is surprisingly terrible given that they inevitably have so much more money than their opponents.

7:07: Rand Paul & Dan Coats win! Paul’s win is especially gratifying because I supported him over Mitch McConnell’s boy, Trey Greyson in the primary.

7:08: We have our first tragedy of the night. The people’s candidate, Alvin Green (D), has gone down to Tea Party monster Jim DeMint.

7:10: According to Fox, Democrats pulled an enormous number of people from other states to help Harry Reid. They claim he’s done extremely well in early voting.

7:14: Via Drudge Report:

EXIT POLLS:

IL 49-43 Kirk [R]

That’s important because it’s one of two “iffy” races we need to win to get to 9 senate pick-ups. The other is the Rossi (R) vs. Murray (D) race in Washington. Exit polls also project a win for Rubio. No shocker, but very, very sweet.

7:30: Fox projects Rob Portman as a winner. Not a surprise, but it’s great that we’re going to be replacing “Crybaby” George Voinovich with Portman.

7:39: If you want to see a fantastic hour-by-hour guide of what to watch for, Nate Silver over at the New York Times has put together an Amazing list.

7:47: Most disappointing thing about the Florida Senate race? That Charlie Crist may lose by 20 points and finish in 2nd place instead of third place. On the other hand, welcome to the Senate, Marco!

7:50: The numbers are looking good tonight, but there are very few key races in the House that have been called. Over the next couple of hours, things should start to shape up a little better.

8:00: Fox is already projecting Blumenthal over McMahon and Coons over O’Donnell. That means our last chance to take the Senate rests with Fiorina beating Boxer in California. Also, not a surprise, but Ayotte wins in New Hampshire and Blunt wins Missouri.

8:14: “Know what health care meant to me? A $2100 bump in my premiums.” — Bill O’Reilly on Fox.

8:20: Good news for Democrats from Nancy Pelosi, heh, heh, heh… “The early returns and overwhelming number of Democrats who are coming out — we’re on pace to maintain a majority in the House of Representatives.”

8:29: They’ve called it for Tim Scott. The first black Republican since JC Watts is heading to Congress. Hopefully, he won’t be the last.

8:33: The one House member that Obama really campaigned for, Tom Perriello, has lost by 8 points. Tom Perriello is gone. Robert Hurt wins.

8:38: Fox has already called West Virginia for Manchin. Seeing Raese, McMahon, and O’Donnell go down so fast and hard makes me think I may have been over-optimistic about the House gains.

8:40: Daniel Webster has DESTROYED Alan Grayson. Grayson’s out.

8:44: Todd Young (R) destroys Barron Hill (D). Love it.

8:57: Rarrrrrrrrrrrr!

8:58: We aren’t winning these Senate seats, but we are ahead in some of these leaning Democrat seats that we need to take to get a really high 60-80 range total. So, we’re not on a pace to have a 100 seat night, but 70-80 is still on the table.

9:13: Fox is projecting that the GOP will take the House with a 60 seat gain.

9:18: It doesn’t get much sweeter in a House race than watching Eddie Haskell go down in flames:

Grayon loses

9:24: At the moment, Renee Ellmers, Ilario Pantano, & Jeff Miller are all behind in North Carolina. That’s a little discouraging. If we want that big 70-80 night, those are exactly the sort of races we need to win.

9:27: Fox has called it for Barney Frank over Sean Bielat. Sadly, he crushed him. On the other hand, Frank Guinta creamed Carol Shea-Porter.

9:34: Sadly, it LOOKS LIKE Jackie Walorski is going to come up just short against Joe Donnelly. He’s up by about 2,000 votes with 99% of the vote counted.

9:42: Heath Shuler has now defeated Jeff Miller. Ilario Pantano? It’s not looking good. Renee Ellmers is, however, ahead by about 500 votes with 66% of the vote counted. I REALLY want that one.

9:45: Bill Flores beats Chet Edwards.

9:46: Pat Toomey AND Ron Kirk are behind by a few points with almost 50% of the vote counted. It would be a surprise if Toomey lost and if Kirk goes down, our last chance to take the Senate goes down with him.

9:58: Nikki Haley is ahead by roughly 2%, but she’s struggling more than most people thought she would in the SC governor’s race.

10:01: John McCain has already been declared a winner. Oh boy. Tom Corbett has also won the governor’s race in Pennsylvania. On the other hand, Toomey is down 6% with 61% of the vote counted, which is making me VERY nervous.

10:10: Mike Kelly has beaten pretend pro-lifer Kathy Dahlkemper. Lou Barletta, who’s an anti-illegal immigration hero, has knocked off Paul Kanjorski. PS: I’m getting really nervous about the Toomey vs. Sestak race.

10:12: Rick Perry is going to be governor of Texas again. Huzzah.

10:15: Heh.

Republicans are an endangered species

10:18: Hickenloper beats Tancredo with loser Dan Maes siphoning off votes.

10:19: “It’s great to be on MSNBC on a night like this.” — Eric Cantor

10:22: Austin Scott wins over Jim Marshall 53% – 47%

10:31: Nikki Haley wins in SC! W00t!

10:40: Russ Feingold is toast and oh yeah, check this line out:

I imagine that thrill is maybe not quite so tingly on your leg anymore. — Michele Bachmann to Chris Matthews

10:47: Renee Ellmers is now up by 3,000 votes for 97% of the vote in! Boo-ya!

10:49: It’s this late and they still only have 45% of the Allen West vs. Ron Klein vote in?

10:56: Dan Benisheck takes Bart Stupak’s seat back.

11:01: California’s results are in and Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina have already lost. We now can’t take the Senate back.

11:06: Ellmers is up by 2,000 votes with 99% of the vote counted.

11:09: Good news! Pat Toomey and Mark Kirk have now edged ahead. John Kasich is also ahead as governor of Ohio.

11:12: Frank Pallone has knocked off Anna Little. Michelle Bachmann has won as well.

11:22: Vicky Hartzler has taken out Ike Skelton. Huzzah!

11:25: Ryan Frazier, one of the three black Republicans in the House with the best chance to get elected, looks like he’s in deep trouble against Ed Perlmutter.

11:29: Mark Critz is ahead of Tim Burns by 4% with 98% of the vote in. It doesn’t look

11:38: Pat Toomey and Mark Kirk are looking good, but now Angle is down by 8 points with roughly half the vote counted.

11:53: Allen West wins in FL-22, 54.9 percent to 45.1 percent. This calls for a celebratory video:

12:17: It is not looking good for Sharron Angle. Hopefully, she can close the gap but Reid is still way up late in the game.

12:24: Pat Toomey wins! Ken Buck, Dino Rossi, and Sharron Angle are still out.

12:33: Harry Reid has defeated Sharron Angle. Ouch.

12:45: A few races that may have slipped through tonight: Sean Duffy looks like he’s headed towards a win. He’s up 52% vs. 44% with 86% of the vote in. Bill Owens (D) is ahead of Matt Doheny (R) in (NY-23). Thanks, Doug Hoffman! Raul Grijalva (D) is at 48% vs. Ruth McClung (R) with 39% of the vote in. Murray is up 51% to 49% over Rossi with 54% of the vote counted. Ken Buck has pulled ahead of Michael Benett 49% to 46% with 73% of the vote in. Steny Hoyer crushed Charles Lollar 64% to 35%. Star Parker is down 60% to 37%, but with only 5% reporting.

1:28: Here’s the last quasi-liveblogging post for the night: Joe Miller is running behind Murkowski early. Murkowski doesn’t have an insurmountable lead, but it’s not looking great for him at the moment.

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