Very Skeptical About Scott Brown’s Chances

All across the right side of the blogosphere people are hopping on the Scott Brown bandwagon. Who’s Scott Brown? He’s the Republican candidate running in a special election to replace Ted Kennedy later this month.

Brown seems like a solid candidate who’s running a good campaign and he’s probably the best candidate we could get in Massachusetts — and conservatives are excited about him judging by the encouragement for his candidacy I’m seeing across the blogosphere. And why not? If we could take Kennedy’s seat, it would send out shockwaves across the political landscape and it would deny the Democrats a 60th vote. One problem: Massachusetts is a very blue, very liberal state. The party registration there is 37.2% Democratic and 12.6% Republican.

Now, if there was any polling whatsoever that showed Brown was in the game, I’d say go all-out, but it’s hard for me to tell people Brown is in the race based on anecdotal evidence and unscientific polls.

Moreover, let me tell you a little something I’ve learned over the last few years. This late in the game, this race HAS BEEN polled internally either by the GOP or the Brown campaign and the fact that they’re not trumpeting those numbers tells me he’s WAY BEHIND. If Brown were even within 10 points, we’d know all about it at this point.

So, why toss cold water on this effort? Simple, because there are going to be a lot of competitive races in 2010 and hopefully conservative bloggers will be rattling the cup hard for some of those candidates. If we treat this like a huge race and Brown gets buried, it reduces confidence and when the time comes, people won’t be as willing to contribute when it really matters.

Now, if someone can produce a poll showing that Brown has a chance, I’m all for jumping in with both feet, but at the moment, I’m not convinced he can win.

Leave a Comment

Share this!

Enjoy reading? Share it with your friends!

Send this to a friend