Very Skeptical About Scott Brown’s Chances

Written By : John Hawkins

All across the right side of the blogosphere people are hopping on the Scott Brown bandwagon. Who’s Scott Brown? He’s the Republican candidate running in a special election to replace Ted Kennedy later this month.

Brown seems like a solid candidate who’s running a good campaign and he’s probably the best candidate we could get in Massachusetts — and conservatives are excited about him judging by the encouragement for his candidacy I’m seeing across the blogosphere. And why not? If we could take Kennedy’s seat, it would send out shockwaves across the political landscape and it would deny the Democrats a 60th vote. One problem: Massachusetts is a very blue, very liberal state. The party registration there is 37.2% Democratic and 12.6% Republican.

Now, if there was any polling whatsoever that showed Brown was in the game, I’d say go all-out, but it’s hard for me to tell people Brown is in the race based on anecdotal evidence and unscientific polls.

Moreover, let me tell you a little something I’ve learned over the last few years. This late in the game, this race HAS BEEN polled internally either by the GOP or the Brown campaign and the fact that they’re not trumpeting those numbers tells me he’s WAY BEHIND. If Brown were even within 10 points, we’d know all about it at this point.

So, why toss cold water on this effort? Simple, because there are going to be a lot of competitive races in 2010 and hopefully conservative bloggers will be rattling the cup hard for some of those candidates. If we treat this like a huge race and Brown gets buried, it reduces confidence and when the time comes, people won’t be as willing to contribute when it really matters.

Now, if someone can produce a poll showing that Brown has a chance, I’m all for jumping in with both feet, but at the moment, I’m not convinced he can win.

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jack

John, do you vote in Massachusetts? No? So you’re not voting in this election….okay.

Is there a better Republican or Conservative running? It doesn’t look like it.

So what is the problem with telling people to support him? Tell the Massachusetts Republicans and conservastives to get out there and talk him up.

See, you’ve got a bit of a podium here, you could help.

In the last election cycle I watched several radio commetators being ‘coy’ about who they endorsed, who they REALLY thought was the best man for the GOP nomination. Sometimes it was there–but they never said it outright. They never said ‘I’m voting for ___, because he’s the best man for the job.

And we got McCain. The MSMs candidate.

You may not think he’s got much of a chance, but isn’t the hope of Scott Brown infinately preferable to the horror that any Dem will bring?

Open your mouth, use your podium.
TheBaud

Open your mouth, use your podium.
Posted by jack 2010-01-04 12:56:48

You are wasting your breath, jack.

Remember during the last election, when non-Republican Dede Scozafazza (sp?) got run out of the race by a true Conservative newcomer and then threw her support to her Democrat opponent AFTER taking about 1 million dollars from the RNC? Do you remember the advice from John Hawkins to the Conservative newcomer that saved us from Dede? He told him “Thanks, now go away!”

Guess neither he nor Brown are John Hawkin’s Conservatives.
http://www.rightklik.net RightKlik

Love the work you guys do here, but very disappointed with this post.

Yes, the odds are long. 99% of the people on both sides of this contest understand that. But we have to fight hard even when the odds are long. Particularly in races that are this important. ObamaCare hangs in the balance. The Dems’ filibuster-proof majority hangs in the balance.

This thing is not out of reach.

You say you’re not convinced he can win. Are you convinced he can’t win. Let’s jump in! What do we have to lose here?

Do you suppose conservatives would really run out of money, enthusiasm and confidence if they invest too heavily in a potential loss in Massachusetts? Are we such wimps?

I see your slogan at the top of the page: “Kneecapping Barack Obama at every opportunity.” Well here’s an opportunity. Let’s put up a good fight.

Exit Quote:

“Still, if you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than live as slaves.”

-WC
Davetbh

And just like Scott Brown has done his own polling I’m sure Coakley has done a share of her own. If her polls had her up by 10+% I’m sure she would have it all over the media and it isn’t. The lack of polling data actually makes the chances more promising for Scott Brown in my opinion.

And if either of you are Western Mass we could use more volunteers at Scott Brown’s headquarters which are 555 South Canal St in Holyoke. There will also be a rally for him on the 8th at WGBY Studios in Springfield.

Scott Brown has a damn good chance of winning this election. He’d have an even better chance if the RNC would get off their high horse and actually support some candidates in Mass. Mass isn’t as blue of a state as many would think. Up until Deval Patrick we had over a decade of Republican Governors.
wcgreen

To think this post is on the same site as the “America Rising” video. How can we take our country back if we sit out Senate elections? If nothing else, we can give the Dems a good scare–make them think twice about the next election.

Remember, the fools never considered joining in; the lazy never did a thing, and the weak gave up along the way. (paraphrased)
rmiller

Remember, the fools never considered joining in; the lazy never did a thing, and the weak gave up along the way. (paraphrased)
Posted by wcgreen
2010-01-04 18:24:19

remember also..you are making a case for social darwinism…the strong shall win…not that the meek shall inherit the earth.

How do you reaconcile the two POVs?
wcgreen

Substtute “intelligent” and “determined” for “strong” and there is nothing to reconcile. There is also no guarantee of success–just “the good fight.”
Markus

John, you do this on occasion… you just throw one of what I call only call a “Brain-Fart” post out there that just makes absolutely NO sense.

The first was your post on NY-23… in which you told Conservatives to just “Forget about it”.

Now there is a _conservative_ candidate in Massachusetts, and once again, you’re just telling Massachusetts conservatives… “forget about it”.

I though that the idea was to _fight_ for conservative principles, regardless of the battlefield? Or is it, oh, we want to fight for conservative principles, but only where we know we can compete.

Heck, that means the moment polling goes back in favor of Crist, you might as well just stick to the script and tell conservatives ‘to forget about Florida’ too.

_IF_ the RNC put money behind candidates like Brown, then MAYBE just maybe conservatives would put money behind the RNC again? You know, that “A rising tide lifts all boats” sort of belief?

Or have we just forgone that conservative message as well?
Davetbh

Rasmussen has Scott Brown only down 9, 50-41 by likely voters.

http://michaelgraham.com/archives/50-41/

I still think this race is very winnable for Scott Brown.
jack

remember also..you are making a case for social darwinism…the strong shall win…not that the meek shall inherit the earth.

The strong SHALL win–that the meek will inherit anything but the graveyard is nonsense.

And it’s not ‘social’ Darwinism, it’s observed fact. The meek and unassuming do not prosper.

Looks like the voters think Massachusetts can be pulled rightwards, John. Why not join them?

Debbie Spend-it-now is selling America’s future to the Chinese

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