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Election Analysis Of Last Night’s Results
Written By : John Hawkins

Virginia Governor: Bob McDonnell (R) vs. Creigh Deeds (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican takeover. (90/10) that McDonnell wins.
Result: McDonnell (59%) vs. Deeds (41%)

Virginia is a key state for the Dems where they had been making a lot of progress. Jim Webb defeated George Allen for a Senate seat. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, is the current governor. Obama was the first Democrat to win the state since 1964 — and he won by a comfortable margin of 6 points.

So, when McDonnell absolutely crushed Deeds 59-41, it sent a powerful message about the political change that has taken place.

New Jersey Governor: Democrat Jon Corzine Vs. Republican Chris Christie Vs. Independent Chris Daggett.
Prediction: Slight Edge to Chris Christie: 60% chance of a victory and a Republican takeover.
Result: Christie (49%) vs. Corzine (45%) vs. Daggett (6%)

The implications of Chris Christie’s win are a bit less clear than the Virginia race. New Jersey is a Democratic state and Christie did manage to win despite being heavily outspent and having Daggett peel off some of his voters, but Jon Corzine was also a very damaged candidate.

In concert with Virginia, New Jersey should scare Dems, but on it’s own, it doesn’t send quite as much of a message as the Virginia race.

NY-23: Constitution party candidate Doug Hoffman vs. Democrat Bill Owen
Prediction: (75/25%) chance that Hoffman wins. That means it’s leaning towards a Constitution Party takeover of the district.
Result: Owens (49%) vs. Hoffman (46%) vs. Scozzafava (6%)

This loss was even bigger surprise than Christie’s win. Hoffman was ahead, outside of the margin of error, in the two polls that were taken after Scozzafava dropped out. He was ahead in the exit polls, which usually slant towards the Democrat. So, how did he lose? I noted yesterday that the Democrats seemed to have a better ground game and I’ve been told that the union made a big difference for Hoffman with their get out the vote effort.

As to the implications of the race, it’s a disappointing loss since so many conservatives backed Hoffman. However, were I the NRCC and RNC, I wouldn’t crow about anything because people are going to blame them for the loss — with some justification. They spent a huge sum of money promoting a horrible candidate who endorsed a Democrat and managed to attract more votes than Owens margin of victory despite the fact that she had withdrawn from the race.

You can be sure that this will be the race the press seizes on because it’s really the only significant bright spot for the Democrats, but it’s not as bright as they think. Hoffman has no charisma and the “Republican” in the race endorsed the Democrat, yet he only lost by 3 points. Combined, Hoffman and Scozzafava pulled in more votes than the Democrat as well. What that means is that in 2010, when there is another election, there will be a stronger Republican candidate in the race and that person will be highly likely to knock off Owens.

So, given how it played out, were conservatives right to challenge Scozzafava? Absolutely. Setting aside the fact that it was far from clear that she’d have won, the worst possible outcome would have been for her to win the seat because in a district like that, even a mediocre Democrat with an R beside of her name like Scozzafava might have been able to stay up there for 20 years.

Other races of note:

* Michael Bloomberg had a surprisingly close race:

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Bloomberg led Thompson 51 percent to 46 percent.

Bloomberg’s apparent victory comes after he changed the city’s constitution to lift a two-term limit.

Bloomberg, an independent candidate, had led Thompson, the city comptroller, by double digits in most pre-election surveys. Bloomberg has outspent his rival in TV ads by $33 million to $2.66 million.

Could this be an indication that there’s anti-incumbent mood out there? Perhaps, but it’s difficult to say when you have a liberal independent going up against a Democrat.

* Gay marriage lost in Maine:

Maine voters repealed the state’s same-sex law, according to the Bangor Daily News.

With 87 percent of precincts reporting, nearly 53 percent of voters chose to reject the law, with more than 47 percent voting to retain it, according to the Daily News.

When Gov. John Baldacci signed the legislation on May 6, he did so knowing there was a possibility that voters could overturn it. In September, opposition groups delivered the necessary signatures to get a vote.

When even the voters in MAINE are rejecting gay marriage, it says something.

Summary: The spin from the Democrats and their backers in the mainstream media will undoubtedly be that these races have nothing to do with the Democratic agenda. They’ll also play up the NY-23 race and Republican acrimony as much as possible. Furthermpre, in all fairness, it’s not always easy to make judgments about how the next year’s elections will turn out from the special elections the year before.

All that being said, it’s clear that a significant shift has occurred. The conservative base has gone from depressed to energized and the environment has changed from strongly pro-Democrat to strongly pro-Republican.

If you’re a Democrat in a competitive district or state, these results send you a message: it’s going to be much tougher for you at election time in 2010 than it was in 2008. The spinmeisters will tell you exactly the opposite, but if you’re Democrat, it’s very difficult not to notice that the “we can’t seem to lose” days of 2006 and 2008 have come to an end.

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  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Spot on Hawkins. Now is the time to do what Nixon said a year ago. If you are a Conservative and want to change the GOP, you simply have to get involved in your local GOP and force change from the bottom up. Others are doing the national scene, it is us to us to get the ball rolling from the base up.

    However, if the RNC and other financial supporters of Scozzafava think the base will forget their attempts to put a liberal in office, well, that would be a serious mistake. And Scozzafava is a thief. Plain and simple.

    Palin. One facebook entry. Nuke from orbit. The power of a private citizen shown.

  • aharris

    I've heard that Owens was more conservative than Scuzzy despite being a Democrat. The message in NY-23 is that Republicans cannot hope to win if they alienate their base. If they put up candidates that are liberal, we won't vote for them anymore and they might even get a strong challenge from someone completely outside the party structure. If you're a leader at the party level, the message should be that you better return to your principles. Hopefully, they get that before they muck up 2010, and hopefully, they continue to think that they can win with "moderates" alone … Scuzzy the "moderate" was anything but.

  • aharris

    D'oh – that last should read "hopefully, they don't continue to think that they can win with the moderate vote alone."

  • Tom_pinko_Delay

    What happened in NY 23 is why I want Sarah Palin to run for President. It will be a surefire win for Obama.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    NY-23 was a disappointment, but look at what really happened: a total unknown who had never run for office — an accountant with a wooden personality — entered the race at the last moment on a third-party ticket and nearly beat the combined Democrat and Republican machines backed by Obama, ACORN and the usual suspects. It's like sending a Little League baseball team up against a team comprised of both Phillies and Yankees and having them almost win the game.

  • TheBaud

    What happened in NY 23 is why I want Sarah Palin to run for President. It will be a surefire win for Obama.

    Posted by Tom_pinko_Delay 2009-11-04 09:56:57

    What happened in NY 23 is exactly why we want Sarah Palin to stay active in the Conservative and possible move into a run for a major office. She showed what a complete loser and thief Scozzafava is and the sheer idiocy of the national GOP leadership.

    And your fear of the words of a private citizen is noted, Tom_pinko_Delay.

  • D-Vega

    I would agree with Mr. Hawkins. As I said yesterday, that race was much more about the Rep party itself and not between right and left. The Dems had nothing to lose and one seat to gain. While the Reps, if they had their shat together, could have won because it is a conservative district, by regional terms and not by Cavalier's.

    The Nat'l GOP really screwed the pooch here, as they obviously didn't bother to review the local situation in that area of NY. This is a good message to send because that is what the base is supposed to do. Sarah Palin didn't do it, either. It was the people of the district. If the Reps would have followed the mold of John McHugh, they would have won easily. While Hoffman got a lot of publicity, he wasn't from the area.

    The Corzine failure was the biggest surprise to me, but I think even though I knew a lot of people disliked him, it was actually much worse than that. The huge increase in property taxes was overwhelming in a the state with the largest unemployment in the northeast.

    Virginia gov was a shoe-in, but the Reps swept. Good for them.

    A lot of people didn't like Bloomberg either. Their voice sent a huge message and they actually could have pulled the biggest upset in New York history if they just got a little less than 52,000 more votes in one of the most populated cities in the world.

    The other surprise to me that got no national attention but is big locally is the Westchester County Executive, where a Republican knocked off Democrat Andy Spano who has been around forever.

  • D-Vega

    Scuzzy wasn't a loser or a thief either. She just shouldn't be a Republican.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    The Dems had nothing to lose and one seat to gain.

    You keep missing the point — both of them, in fact. Point one: Scozzy was even more Liberal than the Democrat in the race. A "win" for the Republican party would still have been a solid vote for the Democrats every time. Point two: when Scozzy pulled out, she endorsed the Democrat, proving that the Republicans and Democrats are really just labels these politicians wear, like team names. They're on the same side, working against us.

  • TheBaud

    Scuzzy wasn't a loser or a thief either. She just shouldn't be a Republican.

    Posted by D-Vega 2009-11-04 10:05:29

    She's a loser for sure, with the votes she got. But most importantly a their, for taking money from the National Republicans and then endorsing her Democrat opponent. She should have dropped out and kept her mouth shut, but she had to look like a fool.

  • Tom_pinko_Delay

    And your fear of the words of a private citizen is noted, Tom_pinko_Delay.

    Posted by TheBaud

    2009-11-04 10:00:48

    Fear of the words of a private citizen? What's that supposed to mean? That I fear what a Palin Presidency would be like? Then yes, I suppose you are correct to note that I fear how Palin would set our country back if she were in charge. Luckily, that race showed exactly how diminished in power the right wing has become in this country, so I don't have too much to fear, do I?

  • wylie_e_coyote

    One BIG item I think that has been overlooked in NY 23 is the fact that the D canidate was a retired Air Force officer. The largest employer up there is FT Drum (not just uniformed military but civil employees ie think SEIU) and there are lots of retired military in the area.

    To be sure, Owens used his military background to huge advantage. A big big plus in this district!

  • whats_up

    What this election shows is those candidates that ran to the middle won, those that ran to the right lost. Also most people cared more about the economy than they did about Obama. The far right should take notice, to win you have to get independents to join you, you dont do that by running farther right.

  • D-Vega

    You keep missing the point — both of them, in fact. Point one: Scozzy was even more Liberal than the Democrat in the race.

    I didn't miss that at all. I actually said that yesterday.

    A "win" for the Republican party would still have been a solid vote for the Democrats every time.

    Not if the nat'l GOP would have nominated somone like John McHugh, which I also pointed out yesterday.

    Point two: when Scozzy pulled out, she endorsed the Democrat, proving that the Republicans and Democrats are really just labels these politicians wear, like team names. They're on the same side, working against us.

    I wouldn't go that far. Why should she endorse Hoffman after the way she was attacked by outsiders?

    She was a poor choice to begin with, but that's not her fault.

  • wylie_e_coyote

    Here is a great article on how your personal liberty and freedom have a great deal to do with the quality of the Health Care you receive:

    http://andrews.blogtownhall.com/2009/11/03/public

    Yes, liberty does really matter in the real world and not just in the abstract…

    And if a conservative or Republican politican can articulate this in terms people can understand then shame on him – its not that hard to explain or grasp…

    I think thats exactly what Christie and McDonnell did – translate these core principles into practical policies and successfully explained to voters how individual liberty, personal freedom, and limit government would benefit them in their personal lives and their states as a whole….

    On the flip side, the voters there defintely said "NO" to the statist theory of ceding power and $$$ cash to the state in exchange for prosperity and security – clearly this theory of government and politics has failed for the upteenth time!

  • D-Vega

    She's a loser for sure, with the votes she got.

    She is actually a winner, as she had the last laugh. By waiting until four days before the election, she could drop out but still stay on the ballot. Her votes cost the conservative the election.

    She should have dropped out and kept her mouth shut,

    Translation: Dissent will not be tolerated!

  • TheBaud

    Luckily, that race showed exactly how diminished in power the right wing has become in this country, so I don't have too much to fear, do I?

    Posted by Tom_pinko_Delay 2009-11-04 10:22:17

    You could not possibly be any more stupid, Tom_pinko_Delay. Let us review what happened. Scozzafava was the odds-on favorite to win the position, with MUCH money and backing from the national Republicans. Sarah Palin threw her support to Hoffman, effectively ending Scozzafava's run. She dropped out and threw her support to her Democrat opponent, effectively stealing all the Republican's money and spitting in their face.

    Did Sarah Palin do this alone? No, but her words had a major effect on the race.

    But I encourage you to continue to fear Sarah Palin and hope for her run for National office. Your backpeddeling and sputtering rage will be high comedy.

  • TheBaud

    She was a poor choice to begin with, but that's not her fault.

    Posted by D-Vega 2009-11-04 10:29:37

    Not her fault that she is a loser, a thief, and a gutless coward? Further proof that you will excuse any behaviour by a Liberal.

  • D-Vega

    What this election shows is those candidates that ran to the middle won, those that ran to the right lost.

    To be fair, those who ran to the left got a gutt-check too. Especially when it comes to property taxes.

  • aharris

    Hoffman came within 3 percentage points of winning after a 30-day campaign. That says a lot.

  • TheBaud

    Translation: Dissent will not be tolerated!

    Posted by D-Vega 2009-11-04 10:33:26

    That was not dissent, that was stupidity and classlessness (something you are well familiar with). She had the full support of the National Republican party. A few Conservative voices threw a challenge up against her. The National Republicans STILL stood by her. So she did what was perfectly within her character to do. She folded her campaign, kept the money given to her, spit in the eye of her friends, and supported that which she opposed just days before.

    She has no spine, no character, and no morals. And that was all exposed by a Facebook entry from a private citizen.

  • boatman47

    Off-year elections have – as David Gergen puts it – "limited predictive value." Clearly, local issues had a lot to do with the results in Virginia and New Jersey, and in the larger cities with mayoral and city council races. The NY-23 result … was an anomaly – an election in which a locally-known Democrat beat a "carpet bagger" Conservative, maybe because the Republican Party allowed its candidate to be slaughtered on a sacrifical alter of ideology, and in revenge she endorsed the Democrat (who will probably hold the seat for no more than one year).

    The other reason the results have litte predictive value is that some core parts of the Obama / Democrat voting base do not turn out in off year elections. Turn out among Blacks and voters under 30 was very low. When those voters come back for the mid-term elections and in 2012, it will not be for Republicans or conservatives of any kind. This election showed that the Republican Party base – largely white, middle-class and older – still has some horsepower, bit its a shrinking group.

    So … a little ( but not a lot) disappointing for Democrats. Some ( but not a lot) of good news for the Republican Party. And for Conservatives ……. a major set-back. That is NOT because of NY-23. The bad news for Conservatives is that both McDonnell in Virginia and Christie in New Jersey ran as moderate Republicans – both explicitly disavowed conservative causes, issues and backing. Both are what you would call RINOs and people with more brains call moderate Republican. In the fight for control of the Republican Party, conservatives just took a beating.

    If and when the Republican Party comes back, it will be with candidates like McDonnell and Christie and NOT Palin. Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Michelle Malkin are not the prophets leading you to the Promised Land. You will be better off following David Brooks, Kathleen Parker and George Will.

  • D-Vega

    Not her fault that she is a loser, a thief, and a gutless coward?

    She is none of the above. It's a free country. If her supporters wanted to support Hoffman, they should have done so in the first place. She couldn't bring herself to support a far-righter and that is her friggin choice. It took courage to put her support behind the local candidate, who is actually not that liberal.

    You can smear her all you want. We know its just because you fear a private citizen.

    All you have now is sour grapes. Enjoy your whine & cheese.

  • Tom_pinko_Delay

    You can smear her all you want….

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 10:42:01

    Oh, he will. It's a fairly textbook reaction from a person who can see the writing on the wall: His time in the sun is OV-AH.

  • D-Vega

    It's because she is a woman, Tom. Obviously. /sarc

  • whats_up

    To be fair, those who ran to the left got a gutt-check too. Especially when it comes to property taxes.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 10:37:04

    That is true Vega, without the middle you are going to be hard pressed to win an election. Far left liberals and far right conservatives should remember that. McDonnell and Christie both turned down Palin for help, that seems to have been a good decision on their part.

  • TheBaud

    Posted by Tom_pinko_Delay 2009-11-04 10:45:34

    Posted by D-Vega 2009-11-04 10:49:15

    You are both VERY funny, and decidedly wrong!

    Scuffy got her ass handed to herand was too much of a loser and a theif to accept it graciously. In other words, she was a typical classless Liberal. When it became clear she could not win, she lashed out and did everything in her power to hurt Republicans. Now, I have no problem with that as they behaved just as morally bankrupt in this situation as she did. But it is amazing how you defend her bahaviour in this. The only lesson we can takje from it is that you are as classless as she and would have done the same. Pissy little girls, all of you.

    There is no need for my words to smear her, her actions have done that for her.

    And Tom_pinko_Delay, keep declaring that the right is "OV-AH" and that Sarah Palin is a losing candidate. Do you like your crow well or medium?

  • Tom_pinko_Delay

    Do you like your crow well or medium?

    Posted by TheBaud

    2009-11-04 10:55:11

    Medium rare. But I don't think it will be making it to my plate in 2012. Fred Thompson is real winner, too.

  • D-Vega

    Baud really thinks its the liberals eating crow today. Wow.

  • whats_up

    that Sarah Palin is a losing candidate

    Posted by TheBaud

    2009-11-04 10:55:11

    How did those candidates do that she endorsed? Those that ran to the middle won, smart move by McDonnell and Christie.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    If and when the Republican Party comes back, it will be with candidates like McDonnell and Christie and NOT Palin. Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Michelle Malkin are not the prophets leading you to the Promised Land. You will be better off following David Brooks, Kathleen Parker and George Will.

    Posted by boatman47

    Advice from a liberal. Thanks for playing. Maybe we should nominate John McCain to be POTUS. He'd win for sure. Oh wait…..

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Baud really thinks its the liberals eating crow today. Wow.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 11:02:39

    You are right. Liberals won out. They won. We conservatives should all kill ourselves in shame. Also, yesterday ehre I learned Ronald Reagan was really a liberal. Thus explaining the Democratic Party is the real Party of Reagan.

    Thanks Vega for keeping us gounded. Without your leadership here, we conservatives would all die from shame.

  • TheBaud

    Baud really thinks its the liberals eating crow today. Wow.

    Posted by D-Vega 2009-11-04 11:02:39

    Typical Liberals. Out of all the races, you win ONE, and it was one that you told us no one cared about.

    Yeah, I think that counts as a win for the Right!

  • whats_up

    Also, yesterday ehre I learned Ronald Reagan was really a liberal. Thus explaining the Democratic Party is the real Party of Reagan.

    Posted by Dick_Nixon

    2009-11-04 11:08:47

    I dont know that I would call Reagan a liberal, but he certainly wasnt the conservative that you all wish he was, but that tends to happen over time.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    You can smear her all you want. We know its just because you fear a private citizen.

    Thus explaining the lefts hatred of Sarah Palin. Thanks for pointing that out Vega, Nixon appreciates it.

  • TheBaud

    Advice from a liberal. Thanks for playing. Maybe we should nominate John McCain to be POTUS. He'd win for sure. Oh wait…..

    Posted by Dick_Nixon 2009-11-04 11:05:14

    It still amazes me that the Radical Left in this country still trys to tell the Right what they need to do to win elections. And they expect to be taken seriously?

    As Ann Coulter said in one of her columns, she remembered when the Left was sooooo afraid that the Right would run Christie Tood Whitman for national office. And another time when they fervently hoped we would run the 'sure loser', Ronald Reagan!

  • D-Vega

    Out of all the races, you win ONE, and it was one that you told us no one cared about.

    Seems to me that no conservative won yesterday. You do know that Republicans doesn't equal conservative, right? The only conservative that was running lost.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    but that tends to happen over time.

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 11:10:51

    Sort of like your lie that David Duke voted for Bush in 2004 as exposed by D-Vega and your usage of a new user name other than crthns, which you posted under here before.

  • TheBaud

    The only conservative that was running lost.

    Posted by D-Vega 2009-11-04 11:12:32

    So now you are the arbitor of who is and is not a Conservative? A New York Liberal party hack deciding who is or is not Right enough?

    WOW! I would be laughing if you were not so incredibly pathetic, D-Vega!

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    Damn, but the Libs are awfully desperate to spin the crushing losses they suffered yesterday. If only we could attach fan blades to them we'd have real energy independence!

  • whats_up

    Posted by Dick_Nixon

    2009-11-04 11:13:37

    You taking over Stanley's job as sherrif of RWN, how's he doing by the way…

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    If you're a Democrat in a competitive district or state, these results send you a message: it's going to be much tougher for you at election time in 2010 than it was in 2008.

    I think Hawkins is right on this point about Democrats in competitive districts. But I also think Hawkins is downplaying the other message that NY 23 sends to base conservatives in terms of their approach to competitive districts. And that message is that red meat conservative populism that makes no room for moderate Republicans will also have a much tougher time in the 2010 elections.

    Let's not forget that NY 23 was never before a "competitive" district, having been dominated by the GOP since the 1800s. It seems to me that the kind of conservative push undergirding Hoffman's campaign (and let's also be clear that this push was massive and its national reach unprecedented for an off-year special election) didn't play well enough to win in a reliably red district and actually made a race that shouldn't have been competitive to begin with a Democratic pick-up.

  • D-Vega

    I only crushing losses I know of recently are the Giants & Jets this past Sunday, Cav.

  • RWNReader2

    NY-23 was the Democrat's to lose – they had all the money, all the endorsement, all of the national party, running against a boring no-name from a 3rd party that's never won ANYTHING. Had Hoffman won, this would have been a crushing, fatal blow for Obama/Reid/Pelosi and the extremist liberal movement they are pushing. Thus, it was a missed opportunity for the conservative movement, but the Dems had everything to PROTECT, and virtually nothing to gain.

    VA – just the opposite – it was the Republican's to lose. They didn't, in fact it was much worse for the Dems than expected.

    PA – not even I expected it. This is a crushing defeat for Obama. Remember, Obama threw VA under the bus because he didn't "embrace Obama" enough. Corzine threw his lot full in with Obama, doing everything short of giving Obama a hummer on stage. With the PA results, NY-23 is the only thing that stood between absolute complete death for the liberal movement last night.

    A very good night (not perfect) but VERY GOOD night for the cause of good and right in America.

  • Realpolitik

    Posted by Dick_Nixon

    2009-11-04 11:13:37

    Ur a funny l'il, er, man, dixon.

  • Realpolitik

    You taking over Stanley's job as sherrif of RWN, how's he doing by the way…

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 11:22:36

    Ah, Stanley – where is he now?

  • RWNReader2

    Remember, NY-23 was a plurality. The f-ing president and the Republican party establishment (effectively) stood behind the Democrat, and the best he could do was a plurality in one of the most liberal states in the Nation. Lost opportunity that would have been won without Scuzzy.

  • Realpolitik

    It all makes it appear that perhaps the electors of the US of A are not the sheep they are so often described to be.

  • RWNReader2

    And that message is that red meat conservative populism that makes no room for moderate Republicans will also have a much tougher time in the 2010 elections

    It's amazing how liberals, shielded by a liberal media establishment just don't get it. Hoffman ran on CORE conservative principals! Unless you are a partisan extreme leftist liberal, there is NOTHING controversial or exclusive (of moderates) about the positions Hoffman ran on! He IS mainstream if your a conservative Republican, which MOST republicans are.

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    RWNReader2 – NY-23 may have been a plurality, but the Democrats haven't won this district by any margin, much less a plurality, since the 1800s. Don't you think that's noteworthy? And parsing NY-23's outcome with reference to the "liberal" state of New York as some kind of positive thing for conservatives would be like me spinning Cao's squeaker success in LA-02 against a horrible, corrupt, and criminal Democratic candidate as a "poor" showing for conservatives and a positive thing for liberals simply because Louisiana is one of the most conservative states in the nation. It's the district that matters, not the state as a whole. And for Cao to win LA-02 was quite significant in the message it sent to Democrats about its choice of candidate in Jefferson. Needless to say, I think the Democratic hopefuls for LA-02 are going to have to come across as squeaky clean to hope to win the primary nomination. I think that the Owens win in NY-23 is also quite significant in the message it sent to conservatives about its choice of candidate in Hoffman. Ignore that message at your peril.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    You taking over Stanley's job as sherrif of RWN, how's he doing by the way…

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 11:22:36

    Why don't you try to make Nixon leave? Nixon sees your other sockpuppet friend realpolitik is here. WHy do you guys have to use multiple user names? Just curious.

    As far as Stan, he's around.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Posted by Realpolitik

    2009-11-04 11:26:09

    Ah, everyones favorite white supremacist nazi lover is here. Still salute that picture of Hitler every morning?

  • RWNReader2

    Wow Huck, don't know what to say. Your answer is right there in your comparison. You say that Cao's win should send a message to the Dems about the poor choice of a candidate. NY-23 DID send the same message to the Republican party! That's the f-ing point! Had Jefferson dropped out and the Dems won in NOLA in a plurality over Cao, would that message be any different? No – it's the same thing. Remember, the Republican ENDORSED the Democrat – they are the same thing for the purposes of the NY-23 race… and it took a plurality for them to win.

  • RWNReader2

    I think that the Owens win in NY-23 is also quite significant in the message it sent to conservatives about its choice of candidate in Hoffman. Ignore that message at your peril.

    Your sophmoric, simplistic interpretation is that conservatives should learn that mainstream conservatism can't win. Thanks sparky! We'll handle it from here!

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    having been dominated by the GOP since the 1800s.

    Well, now it no longer has a RINO that thieves money from the GOP. It has a openly Democratic occupant, one who opposes the ChappaquiddickCare as proposed by The Obamateur.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    "Let’s start with the special election in New York. Many of us hoped that Douglas Hoffman could pull off a remarkable outsider bid yesterday to beat Bill Owens, and he came within a couple of points of making it. That puts a Democrat in the seat for the first time since 1993 (not 117 years as has been previously reported). It’s never a best-case for the GOP when a Democrat wins, but by keeping Dede Scozzafava out of the seat, the GOP has the chance to win this seat back in a year with a better candidate — perhaps Hoffman, perhaps another Republican who shares core principles of limited government and fiscal conservatism. Dislodging an incumbent Republican would have been considerably more difficult, and a unified GOP should win this district — especially given the signals sent everywhere else to Democrats."

    Ripped off from Conservatives4Palin, as written by Ed Morrisey at Hotair.Com.

  • Realpolitik

    Ah, everyones favorite white supremacist nazi lover is here.

    Posted by Dick_Nixon

    2009-11-04 11:49:26

    Yes, you remain – to the amusement of us all.

  • D-Vega

    More spinng in here then a "Rumpelstiltskin: The Movie" audition.

  • Realpolitik

    It's amazing how liberals, shielded by a liberal media establishment just don't get it.

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 11:40:07

    LOL – don't I wish. Perhaps if one lives in the deepest of caves, with nary a transmitter of any kind.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Yes, you remain – to the amusement of us all.

    Posted by Realpolitik

    2009-11-04 12:13:04

    You admitted a love and admiration of Adolf Hitler, not Nixon. Are you at the truck stop or internet cafe today?

  • RWNReader2

    If you're looking for the simplistic interpretation of NY-23, here it is: Had the Republican party picked a conservative instead of a liberal, they would have held onto the seat.

  • Realpolitik

    You admitted a love and admiration of Adolf Hitler, not Nixon. Are you at the truck stop or internet cafe today?

    Posted by Dick_Nixon

    2009-11-04 12:18:23

    Ya know, dixon – repeating this lie will never make it true.

    Ah, those truck stops. Real America, dont'cha know?

  • whats_up

    Hoffman ran on CORE conservative principals

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 11:40:07

    And he lost in one of the most conservative districts in NY, with unprecedented national exposure as well as money, he lost a seat that Republicans have held for over 100 years, a seat that they should have won, but playing to the base conservatives turned off indepedent voters, the ones that McDonnell and Christie did not turn off, but some conservatives will never learn.

  • whats_up

    If you're looking for the simplistic interpretation of NY-23, here it is: Had the Republican party picked a conservative instead of a liberal, they would have held onto the seat.

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 12:18:30

    Except a conservative ran and lost.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Except a conservative ran and lost.

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 12:25:38

    So did the RINO. Struck down by one measly Facebook post by a private citizen.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    NY-23 may have been a plurality, but the Democrats haven't won this district by any margin, much less a plurality, since the 1800s.

    You, like Vega, are desperately trying to pretend that there was a difference between the Liberal Republican and the Democrat running in NY-23. Whichever one won would have been a reliable Leftist vote. The fact that a no-name from nowhere was able to jump in at the last minute on a third-party ticket and almost take that seat away from the combined mass of the Republicrat party is stunning in its implications for next year's elections.

  • RWNReader2

    Yes whats_up, we know that you think conservatism can't win. thank you for your insight. You and Huck get gold stars for your brilliant analysis.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    he lost a seat that Republicans have held for over 100 years

    Why do you keep saying that? Hoffman was not running on the Republican ticket. The Republicans and Democrats combined against him, and he still almost pulled it out. We all know how that scares the living crap out of you Leftists, and we know you keep refusing to face up to it. But you will, next year.

  • whats_up

    Posted by CavalierX

    2009-11-04 12:38:29

    Not if conservatives run to the right, we wont. You dont seem to get it do you. The conservative candidates that won, ran to the middle AWAY from the right to attract independents, that is how to win, not marginalizing independents, not a purity test for candidates. However I hope you dont learn this lesson, turn Palin, Pawlenty and Thompson loose, please alienate all those independents.

  • Bill_Dalasio

    The bottom line I see from NY-23 is that Republicans can't win without conservatives and conservatives can't win without Republicans. To that extent, it's a wash.

  • RWNReader2

    Here's one for you liberals to ponder. If next year Hoffman wins the Republican nomination, gets the backing of the party and beats Owens, won't that prove you (Huck, Vega, dumbass) wrong in your interpretation? If McHugh was the "conservative" Vega claims, then that NECESSARILY means that a Hoffman victory is possible, right?? If that's the case, doesn't it prove that you are wrong today?

    Yes it does.

    Liberals are stupid.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    turn Palin, Pawlenty and Thompson loose, please alienate all those independents.

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 12:48:10

    The same ones that put McCain in the White House? Those independents?

  • whats_up

    The bottom line I see from NY-23 is that Republicans can't win without conservatives and conservatives can't win without Republicans. To that extent, it's a wash.

    Posted by Bill_Dalasio

    2009-11-04 12:53:59

    Bill it will be interesting to see if the two groups can reconcile, with conservatives purity tests that might be hard to do, but we will see.

  • whats_up

    The same ones that put McCain in the White House? Those independents?

    Posted by Dick_Nixon

    2009-11-04 12:55:09

    The ones that ran away from Palin, yep those are the ones that you need.

  • RWNReader2

    Cav, you see that in the liberal world, running a mainstream conservative campaign is fringe. Therefore by definition conservatism cannot win. The only road to victory, from their perspective, is to be as liberal as possible. It's the intellectual equivalent of arguing with a brick. Don't bother.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    And there have been Democrats who have represented this area in the past few decades. Redistricting and such has moved the districts around, but, from looking at history, several Democrats have held the area as. Peyser, Stratton, McNulty, Gilbert, Buckley , and Bingham are all id'd as Democrats.

  • D-Vega

    The bottom line I see from NY-23 is that Republicans can't win without conservatives and conservatives can't win without Republicans. To that extent, it's a wash.

    And neither party, or bases, can win without who they would deem to be too moderate for their idealogies.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    The ones that ran away from Palin, yep those are the ones that you need.

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 12:58:06

    This is a lie btw. Palin got McCain more votes than he would have received with another more liberal running mate.

    Why do you lie so much? BTW, don't let that Maine vote discourage you. Maybe one day you and the ol' partner can get married.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    "Let’s start with the special election in New York. Many of us hoped that Douglas Hoffman could pull off a remarkable outsider bid yesterday to beat Bill Owens, and he came within a couple of points of making it. That puts a Democrat in the seat for the first time since 1993 (not 117 years as has been previously reported). It’s never a best-case for the GOP when a Democrat wins, but by keeping Dede Scozzafava out of the seat, the GOP has the chance to win this seat back in a year with a better candidate — perhaps Hoffman, perhaps another Republican who shares core principles of limited government and fiscal conservatism. Dislodging an incumbent Republican would have been considerably more difficult, and a unified GOP should win this district — especially given the signals sent everywhere else to Democrats."

    Again from Ed Morrisey. Pretty well sums it up.

  • D-Vega

    One other tibit of info is that NY-23 will be redistricted next year with the 2010 census, cutting up the conservative portions into the liberal portions. No Republican or conservative may ever win the district again.

  • whats_up

    Cav, you see that in the liberal world, running a mainstream conservative campaign is fringe. Therefore by definition conservatism cannot win. The only road to victory, from their perspective, is to be as liberal as possible. It's the intellectual equivalent of arguing with a brick. Don't bother.

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 12:58:29

    Hey I thought NY23 was going to be the end of liberalism and Obamacare, what happened there Reader?

  • whats_up

    This is a lie btw. Palin got McCain more votes than he would have received with another more liberal running mate.

    Posted by Dick_Nixon

    2009-11-04 13:03:39

    Really a lie huh, prove it. Oh thats right you cant. Tell you what, please, please, please demand that Palin run in 2012 and we will see what happens, please run her, for the good of the country.

  • Realpolitik

    please demand that Palin run in 2012 and we will see what happens, please run her, for the good of the country.

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 13:16:08

    Sounds good to me, dixon. And to think that today I even agreed with John. Full moon's over, isn't it?

  • Realpolitik

    Oops – made a mistake. Whats up with that? I should have known dixon could say nothing sensible.

  • RWNReader2

    Hey I thought NY23 was going to be the end of liberalism and Obamacare, what happened there Reader?

    So what you're saying is that the liberal meme from yesterday, that NY-23 didn't matter, win or lose, was complete bullshit, and now you would like to gloat over defeating the cause of conservatism in this failed opportunity to pick up a big win?

    You do know that you are a moron, right?

  • Bill_Dalasio

    The biggest loser last night was Barack Obama. In effect, the country just played him a fine rendition of BB King's "The Thrill is Gone". Pres. Obama personally barnstormed both Virginia and New Jersey, only to see his candidates go down in flames. At this point Blue Dogs and DLCers have to realize that crossing Pres. Obama carries less of a threat to it than crossing their constituencies. Despite all the rhetoric about being a sign of Republican disarray, this election is more likely to sow the seeds of Democratic infighting.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Posted by Realpolitik

    2009-11-04 13:21:01

  • D-Vega

    I would be more concerned with the seeds of Republican infighting. The Dems are in great shape. They actually picked up another congressional seat yesterday.

    As for the governors, they are both moderate, or liberal, Republicans that have to govern from the center regardless.

    Obama didn't lose yesterday. It was a mixed bag. The entity in the worst shape after this is the national Republican party.

  • D-Vega

    Goodbye filibuster proof majority.

    I think there should be a lesson learned here about election erections.

    The Dem majority just increased yesterday, so let's not get ahead of ourselves in terms of year-away predictions.

  • RWNReader2

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 13:35:23

    Yes, I said that it's the Democrat's to lose, and a victory would be a big opportunity for the cause of conservatism that would have been crushing to the cause of liberalism given the odds and improbability of it all given the situation. And the liberal line from yesterday was that I was wrong on both counts, because it didn't matter. Now you acknowledge that it was a lie, and I was right on both.

    You are double special super moron.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    Obama didn't lose yesterday.

    If you want to look at it in a certain light, the candidate backed by Sarah Palin came closer to winning his race than either of the two candidates backed by President Hussein.

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    Cav, you see that in the liberal world, running a mainstream conservative campaign is fringe.

    No, what makes a "mainstream conservative campaign" as you define it "fringe" is that it's not a mainstream American campaign. Otherwise, mainstream conservative campaigns like Hoffman's would easily win a conservative district like NY-23. The fact is that if "mainstream conservatives" – which presumably means the Beck/Palin/Limbaugh conservatives – cannot win NY-23, I think its safe to say that they don't command the allegiance of a majority of the overall American electorate, which is much less conservative than even NY-23.

  • D-Vega

    Yes, Cav. He did as well as McCain did…

  • RWNReader2

    I know you liberals get a woody just thinking about Obama, but what's an "election erection"?

  • CoolCzech

    Obama didn't lose yesterday. It was a mixed bag. The entity in the worst shape after this is the national Republican party.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 13:36:53

    REALLY? Allegedly purple Virginia and Deep, Deep, Blue New Jersey were solid Republican victories. In fact, the Leftists took a brutal beating in Virginia.

    One obscure district in upstate NY – thanks in small part to local Republican party hacks taking electoral advice from MSNBC – is lost, and not by much. In fact, it's incredibly ominous for the Democratic Socialist Worker's Party prospects for 2010 that a Third Party Candidate almost won! Just THINK ABOUT THAT, Sweepea!

    Must suck to be you.

  • Bill_Dalasio

    Vega,

    The problem is that a party on out of power can infight. It's the competition of ideas and programs that allows it to renew itself. The party in charge, on the other hand, has responsibility for governing. And that gets much harder when you can't enforce party discipline. And we've now established that a "religious nutter" and a "fatso who throws his weight around" are preferrable to the Democratic alternative, even with divine intervention by The One.

  • RWNReader2

    Posted by huckupchuck1

    2009-11-04 13:45:16

    If you can't disguish the difference between a district where a liberal gets the Republican nomination from mainstream conservatism, then you only prove my point. Thanks.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    Yes, Cav. He did as well as McCain did…

    Touched a nerve there, didn't I? Seems as though "the One" couldn't get a Democrat to win in either of two Democrat states, even when backing the incumbent, despite his numerous times campaigning in person. Oh, that's not good. That doesn't bode well for him at all.

  • CoolCzech

    Yes, Cav. He did as well as McCain did…

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 13:45:49

    Wait a minute, D-Vega…

    I thought you and other Leftists keep telling us that more McCain-like candidates are just what the doctor ordered for the Republican Party?

    I don't know, maybe I'm just funny that way but somehow I find a 65/35 Republican Blowout in allegedly "purple" and "realigned" Virginia far, far more important than some obscure district that became a temporary blip on the radar screen because of local GOP party hacks taking your kind of snake oil advice…

  • D-Vega

    I know you liberals get a woody just thinking about Obama, but what's an "election erection"?

    Examples:

    The PA results prove that with George Bush out of the picture, Obama's popularity is completely non-transferable if you're running in a State/District that even came CLOSE to voting for McCain in '08. That's over 100 Dems in the House, and 20 in the Senate. Goodbye filibuster proof majority.

    Today is the beginning of the end for your ideology vega, deal with it.

    If an Obama Democrat, endorsed by an Obama Republican, flush with Obama money, assisted BY OBAMA, loses to a no-name avowed conservative who's public persona is that he's "boring and doesn't have much personality." this is an EPIC FAIL for liberalism and Obama!!!!

    Today is the day Obamacare dies in upstate New York! Can I get a HELLLL YEAHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    And today, the blue dogs are going to shit their pants watching NY-23!!!!!!

  • CoolCzech

    D-Vega,

    If you don't think last night scared the BeJesus out of sane Democrats… you are truly the King of De Nile.

    Sorry about the healthcare thing… I know how much Cuba-style healthcare with ever greater costs, rationed care, mediocre innovation, filthy VA-style hospitals, doctor shortages, and incredibly long waiting lines meant to you.

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    Here's one for you liberals to ponder. If next year Hoffman wins the Republican nomination, gets the backing of the party and beats Owens, won't that prove you (Huck, Vega, dumbass) wrong in your interpretation?

    Not at all. The point is that Hoffman, as the conservative candidate, should have won this district. In fact, he was favored to win this election. Even Hawkins notes as much. What is instructive is that he didn't. What is even more instructive is that he didn't win this conservative district even with the massive amount of attention and funding pumped into his campaign by conservatives from all across the country, even with the loud and unabashed Beck/Limbaugh/Palin endorsement of his candidacy. Going back to my LA-02 example, if a well-regarded "mainstream liberal" Democratic candidate fails to defeat Cao in this heavily liberal Democratic district, that would be a serious wake-up call to the Democrats. Likewise, the fact that Hoffman lost this time around doesn't bode well for "mainstream conservatives" next time around. And if Hoffman gets the GOP nomination for 2010 and still doesn't win NY-23 decisively by the margins his Republican predecessors won, that would still seem to indicate that your brand of conservatism just doesn't play that well beyond a certain minority percentage of the overall American electorate.

  • CoolCzech

    Yeah that, and $20 (plus shipping & handling), can get you TWO ShamWows.

    You'll say 'wow' everytime.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 13:57:42

    Yes, D-Vega, and Reid seconded your snark by promptly delaying Health Socialism until at LEAST next year.

    I think that rates THREE ShamWows.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    I think its safe to say that they don't command the allegiance of a majority of the overall American electorate, which is much less conservative than even NY-23.

    Posted by huckupchuck1

    2009-11-04 13:45:16

    Keep on thinking. You are right, nothing happened last night good for the right. Nothing at all.

    Thanks again for keeping us grounded. It was such a good night for Obamateur. He can pass healthcare with that super majority in the House and Senate, doesn't need one Republican vote.

    When are they voting again for that thing? 2010? Must not be too important to the One.

  • CoolCzech

    You Lefties are in such INCREDIBLE denial.

    The truth of the matter is, you had your asses handed to you in historic defeats in two MAJOR states, BIG TIME. Your dreams of realignment are DEAD. Your party brand is damaged. You need to move to the center, because your leftwingnuts are in danger of turning you into a regional party on the decline. Obama campaigned BIG TIME in Virginia and had his scrawny ass kicked last night.

    Do me a favor, and PLEASE ensure you keep trying to force Soviet Healthcare down the throats of the American people, and please try to tell the overtaxed people of New Jersey and America that you'll take away a few thousand dollars a year from their children's food, clothing, and college funds because you think the world is going to melt if you don't do it, OK?

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    If you don't think last night scared the BeJesus out of sane Democrats… you are truly the King of De Nile.

    Why would any sane Democrat be scared by fact that a Republican won the NJ and VA governorships. Speaking only for myself, that's not all that surprising. NJ is, after all, the state that has produced Christie Todd Whitman. New Jersey is not a state where GOP victories at the level of governor are unthinkable or terrifying. And I've always considered VA to be primarily a GOP leaning state. Heck, even its Democratic Governors over recent history have leaned more conservative. The fact that a Republican won the VA governorship is something I would expect, not something that would scare me.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Why would any sane Democrat be scared by fact that a Republican won the NJ and VA governorships.

    Got Nixon. That vote turnaround from 08 to 09 was insignificant. In fact, most of those people who voted in Republicans were die hard liberal Democrats, and felt their votes were showing solidarity with Obama.

    /facepalm

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    Keep on thinking. You are right, nothing happened last night good for the right. Nothing at all.

    Where did I say that? Right, I didn't say that. In fact, if you look at my first posting on this thread, you'll note that I agreed with Hawkins that this election night overall was a wake-up call to Democrats in competitive districts that it won't be easy to win. But I also said that I think the mixed message to conservatives represented by the Hoffman defeat in NY-23 is being ignored or disingenuously spun as something positive for conservatives. Last night wasn't a good night for Democrats. It wasn't a good night for Obama. But it also wasn't an unmitigated endorsement of what RWNReader2 likes to call "mainstream conservatism." If a "mainstream conservative" like Hoffman can't beat a moderate Democrat in a realiably conservative Republican district, that says something about the viability of "mainstream conservatism."

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    If a "mainstream conservative" like Hoffman can't beat a moderate Democrat in a realiably conservative Republican district,

    Why didn't the mainstream Republican win the district?

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    To all the liberal idiots that cannot figure out NY-23. Hoffman was as charasmatic as a 2×4, he was unknown 30-days ago, did not live in the district, was up against BOTH politcal parties and lost by 3%. If any ONE of the above condidtions was changed (say he lived in the district) he would have won plain and simple. Your constant shallow analysis of political events makes you look like morons. If you think those same circumstances will be repeated with 2010 candidates than you truly are stupid.

  • D-Vega

    Your dreams of realignment are DEAD.

    Newsflash to Czech: That already happened. Liberals still control the majority of governors, the House, the Senate, the POTUS, the SCOTUS, and the majority of State legislatures.

    Your party brand is damaged. You need to move to the center,

    Oh, I get it now. You are talking to the Republicans, not us liberals.

  • D-Vega

    Why didn't the mainstream Republican win the district?

    Because she dropped out.

  • D-Vega

    If any ONE of the above condidtions was changed (say he lived in the district) he would have won plain and simple. Your constant shallow analysis of political events makes you look like morons. If you think those same circumstances will be repeated with 2010 candidates than you truly are stupid.

    The irony is amazing.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    The irony is amazing.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 14:34:20

    Irony? What irony?

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    Why didn't the mainstream Republican win the district?

    Well, if you ask RWNReader2, the true "mainstream Republican" was Hoffman. And he didn't win the district because district voters rejected his brand of "mainstream conservatism" in favor of a moderate Democrat. Or are you one of the rare conservatives on RWN that thinks Scozzafava IS "mainstream Republican"?

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    Irony? What irony?

    Posted by Living_Right_in_CA

    Well, I see the irony in two ways. First, if he did live in the district he would likely have been more like Scozzafava. Second, the whole strategy of conservatives is to recreate the Hoffman scenario all across the country and NOT leave it up to local party officials.

  • RWNReader2

    Talk about irony

    Because she dropped out.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 14:33:19

    Yup, she was just walking down the street, minding her own business, cruising to victory as a 'moderate' Republican in a 'conservative' Republican district and suddenly, WHAM! she somehow dropped out.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Posted by huckupchuck1

    2009-11-04 14:42:25

    Then your understanding of the "strategy of conservatives" s worse than we thought.

    Oh yes people are products of where they live. "First, if he did live in the district he would likely have been more like Scozzafava"

    LMAO about the dumbest thing I read on this whole thread

  • RWNReader2

    Posted by huckupchuck1

    2009-11-04 14:39:54

    You continue to demonstrate how your simpleton liberalism prevents you from distinguising between NY-23 and mainstream conservatism, proving my point once again.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    The point is that Hoffman, as the conservative candidate, should have won this district.

    No, there's no way he should have gotten more than 10% of the vote. He was an unknown nobody diligently working at his day job just a few weeks ago, and he was able to force the hand-picked Republican to withdraw and then almost beat both of them working together against him. You can lie to yourself all you want, but you can't wish away the facts.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    What is even more instructive is that he didn't win this conservative district even with the massive amount of attention and funding pumped into his campaign by conservatives from all across the country, even with the loud and unabashed Beck/Limbaugh/Palin endorsement of his candidacy.

    In that case, it's far more instructive that Corzine didn't win re-election in the deep blue state of NJ even with the massive amount of attention and funding pumped into his campaign by Liberals from all across the country, even with the loud and unabashed Obama endorsement of his candidacy.

  • CoolCzech

    Why are you Lefties even spending so much time posting about some obscure congressional district race you told us for weeks "doesn't matter?"

    I'll tell you why:

    You had your fat ugly asses WHIPPED Big Time in two HUGELY IMPORTANT STATES. That's why.

    And you're now desperately hoping you can cover that salient fact up with this nonsensical obsession over someplace called NY23. Not a bad gambit, I guess… hell, I'd probably try the same thing if I was in your pathetic shoes.

    But face facts: your precious Soviet Healthcare Dreams… are DEAD. Cap & Trade… DEAD. I know how much you were looking forward to American kids going hungry at night to pay for your carbon credits, and I realize you were getting a bit less flacid ererctions than you usually do over the idea of 60 people crowded into an overworked doctor's waiting room and all. But that's no reason to evade the reality staring your crypto-Commie, UnAmerican, Statist, Totalitarian-leaning Power Mad Party in the face.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX
    Why didn't the mainstream Republican win the district?

    Because she dropped out.

    Why?

  • CoolCzech

    "…it's far more instructive that Corzine didn't win re-election in the deep blue state of NJ even with the massive amount of attention and funding pumped into his campaign by Liberals from all across the country, even with the loud and unabashed Obama endorsement of his candidacy."

    Posted by CavalierX

    2009-11-04 14:50:38

    But… but… but…

    Nancy Pelosi said they WON!

    BWAHAHAHAHAHaHaHahahahaha!!!!!

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    But… but… but…

    Nancy Pelosi said they WON!

    BWAHAHAHAHAHaHaHahahahaha!!!!!

    And I fervently hope they keep right on winning that way.

  • CoolCzech

    Liberals still control… the SCOTUS, and the majority of State legislatures.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 14:31:29

    There goes that overreach again D-Vega.

    BTW when are you all Controlling Liberals going to pass Healthcare? Cap and Trade?

    Heh, heh…

  • RWNReader2

    Do you liberals not see what your brand of ideology is doing for the public's perception of government? Do you not see how easy it is becoming to win with a bland non-controversial anti-big government pitch? We're only 9 months in, and a bland conservative running from a third party with 30-days notice almost won in the bluest of blue states! His mere presence forced a liberal Republican to WITHDRAW! The political mood of the country is becoming MORE conservative, not LESS so! Another 12 months of listening to Obama/Reid/Pelosi trying to cram socialized medicine down our throats and all any republican will have to do is whisper "downsize government" and he'll cruise to victory! The people who work in the field see this, and that's why you're hearing so much about it today. It's only you – the koolaid drinking moonbat liberal – who doesn't see it coming. Reid has already acknowledged that the health care bill is dead until next year. That means we get to hammer your politicians on it during an election year! Short of fucking up by nominating the Scuzzy type of big-government Republican you are recommending, it's going to be a slaughter.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    . Liberals still control the majority of governors, the House, the Senate, the POTUS, the SCOTUS,

    Can you link the election results for the Supreme Court going liberal?

  • D-Vega

    Why? Posted by CavalierX

    She was pushed out by the fringes of her party, including national personalities and entertainers looking to capitalize on the controversy and thereby furthering their careers.

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    She was pushed out by the fringes of her party

    Pushed? She jumped. She knew she couldn't win the Conservative vote when a real Conservative was running. As for that "fringe" of which you speak, I remind you that 40% of the country now considers itself Conservative, as opposed to only 20% who identify with you panty-waist appeasing Big Government anti-freedom Liberals.

  • whats_up

    the Scuzzy type of big-government Republican you are recommending, it's going to be a slaughter.

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 15:13:03

    Oh look, more predictions from the man who said that Hoffman was going to win, sure sparky, sure.

  • RWNReader2

    Last year the Republicans held the White House. Bush lost the middle over the Iraq war, and since conservative ideology was tied in with the Iraq war, it was perceived as divisive. This permitted a radical leftist to position himself as a non-divisive, even though he was an extreemist, without ever divorcing himself from his radicalism (thought he was forced to throw a couple of compatriots under the bus).

    ALL OF THAT IS GONE.

    Now that America sees Obama's radical leftist agenda, it is YOU who is being perceived as divisive. Yet you koolaid moonbats continue to believe that WE are the source of divisiveness. Newsflash: YOU own all four branches of government. In another year, your messiah will have this country so fractured that hard-core conservatives will be perceived as positively benign. MORE conservatism will we become in, not less.

  • whats_up

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 15:26:30

    Sure you will, sure, just run Palin to insure your "sucess"

  • RWNReader2

    whats_up: do you honestly think that making comments based on an outcome consistent with all predictive polling data constitutes a "prediction?" Or something one should be embarassed by? Or do you just like to consistently remind us how much of a moron you are?

  • RWNReader2

    I assumed Corzine would win PA, because that's what the polls said – guess I should be embarassed, right?

  • D-Vega

    Reader, its Jersey. I don't think Pennsylvanians would appreciate that.

  • whats_up

    whats_up: do you honestly think that making comments based on an outcome consistent with all predictive polling data constitutes a "prediction?" Or something one should be embarassed by? Or do you just like to consistently remind us how much of a moron you are?

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 15:38:54

    Thats the whole point Reader, the polls had them in a statistically dead heat, within the margin of error, some polls had Owens leading, so you werent consistent wtih all predictive polling data, do your homework and then you wont look like an ass later.

  • RWNReader2

    Only two polls after Scuzzy dropped out. Both had Hoffman outside the margin of error. Exit poll performed during the day yesterday had the same. You are the ass.

  • RWNReader2

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 15:44:40

    yup, don't know where the PA came from.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Only two polls after Scuzzy dropped out. Both had Hoffman outside the margin of error. Exit poll performed during the day yesterday had the same. You are the ass.

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 15:56:54

    Score: RWNReader2 467,889 whats_up(his ass) 0

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    She was pushed out by the fringes of her party, including national personalities and entertainers looking to capitalize on the controversy and thereby furthering their careers.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 15:21:48

    Sure Vega. Rush needs more listeners to be a success. That 20 million or so just doesn't pay his bills. Palin is furthering her career, shame she isn't running for POTUS. She removed Scuzzy with one Facebook posting, imagine what good she could do with a bigger podium. Probably wouldn't run up a 1.5 trillion dollar deficit in 6 months Nixon bets.

  • RWNReader2

    Sorry, it was THREE polls with sampling data from the weekend. I guess I was ignoring the one that had Hoffman at +17%. Other two had him at +5%.

    http://www.pollster.com/polls/ny/09-ny-23-ge.php

  • whats_up

    Only two polls after Scuzzy dropped out. Both had Hoffman outside the margin of error. Exit poll performed during the day yesterday had the same. You are the ass.

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 15:56:54

    As my conservative brethren here remind us on a daily basis, and a lesson you should take to heart, the only poll that matters is the one taken on election day. Thanks for playing though.

  • whats_up

    Only two polls after Scuzzy dropped out. Both had Hoffman outside the margin of error. Exit poll performed during the day yesterday had the same. You are the ass.

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 15:56:54

    Actually only one of them did, one polls margin of error was 4 points the other 5, a statistical dead heat, again do your homework.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    As my conservative brethren here remind us on a daily basis, and a lesson you should take to heart, the only poll that matters is the one taken on election day. Thanks for playing though.

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 16:15:39

    5,345 pieces of straw, check

    two buttons for eyes and a big button for nose, check

    clothing and strawman is complete, check

    Argue using straw man, check

    Make yourself out to be a Complete Idiot, priceless

    whats_up you are such a moron. ROFLMAO

  • RWNReader2

    do you just like to consistently remind us how much of a moron you are?

    thanks for answering this one.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Thanks for playing though.

    Posted by whats_up

    2009-11-04 16:15:39

    Nothing original from you Nixon sees. Wide world of strawman from you as usual. Did you ever find that proof David Duke voted for Bush in 2004 as you claimed under your old user name crthns? Just curious.

  • D-Vega

    Sure Vega. Rush needs more listeners to be a success.

    He needs to be seen as the driving force in conservative politics, yes. He flopped on this one. So did Beck, Thompson and Palin. The Four Horsemen.

    That 20 million or so just doesn't pay his bills.

    He needs those 20 million to keep listening like it will make a difference.

    Palin is furthering her career, shame she isn't running for POTUS.

    Surrrrrre, she ain't.

    She removed Scuzzy with one Facebook posting, imagine what good she could do with a bigger podium.

    Yeah, she could put a lot more seats into Democrat hands. I hope she keeps it up, you betcha.

    Probably wouldn't run up a 1.5 trillion dollar deficit in 6 months Nixon bets.

    Let's see her actually win something that matters first.

  • RWNReader2

    I love it when liberals demonstrate that their ignorance extends beyond political history and into other subjects, like for example, math…
    http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/publications

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    I love it when liberals demonstrate that their ignorance extends beyond political history and into other subjects, like for example, math…

    Posted by RWNReader2

    2009-11-04 16:35:43

    467,890 to 0 !!!

    This supports my earlier assertion that liberals only look at the surface of things. They do not ask questions to try to determine "impacts", "consequences", or "patterns". They just assume the same set of factors will repeat and people will act/react the exact same way. This IMHO contributes to the lack of liberals in the military, they do not analyze and then adapt a new strategy.

    Another example? Sure look at D-Vega's last rebuttal post to Nixon. Are they any facts? Nope? Any analysis? Nope. Just a fool's opinion..

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Let's see her actually win something that matters first.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 16:35:08

    Yeah, she never won a election. Or has any executive experience.

    She sure popped that RINO with one Facebook posting though. Meanwhile, Barry Obamateur couldn't prop up John Corzine in a liberal state that went massively for him.

  • D-Vega

    I responded TO opinion WITH opinion, Living.

    All I have seen on this thread is spin and disjuncted predictions and what ifs.

    The only facts are –

    both Rep governors ran as "moderates", something that is supposed to be a pariah to you true blue conservatives.

    AND, the only true conservative in the race yesterday lost.

    AND all the campaigning done on behalf of Hoffman by Fox News and the Four Horsemen amounted to chickensquat.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    He needs to be seen as the driving force in conservative politics, yes. He flopped on this one. So did Beck, Thompson and Palin. The Four Horsemen.

    D-Vega

    They helped take VA and NJ though. Nixon heard Corzine was crying like a little girl last night after Barry's Cult of Personality let him down. Maybe with his history of running a corrupt Administration he can latch on in DC with Barry and friends. Maybe he can be a mortgage broker, Nixon hears Chris Dodd needs a sweet refi deal.

  • D-Vega

    She sure popped that RINO with one Facebook posting though.

    You sure seem to be giving her a lot of credit for failure. But I guess that's the pattern.

    And I said an election that MATTERED. She had a governorship and quit. She lost a national election and she has yet to deliver for conservatives in any way.

    But please, proceed…

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 16:51:39

    You prove my point. A nice surface analaysis that gets you to what you want to believe. There is a lot more to why Hoffman lost in NY-23 and how incredible it was that it was that close. So Pro-Life, small government people are moderates? Boy are you liberals really in trouble now! Virginia was a bigger win than NJ, because of the margin, 18pts, are you kidding me. Independents 2:1 for the Republican? Both Governors are to the right of John McCain…

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    But please, proceed…

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 16:54:15

    Are you taking Straw Man classes from whats_up?

  • D-Vega

    They helped take VA and NJ though.

    No, they didn't. Virginia has voted opposite the last Presidential election for more than 30 yrs.

    New Jersey was hating Corzine over the property tax issue.

    The truth is The Four Horsemen would never have supported the Rep candidates for Jersey & Virginia because they ran as MODERATES.

    And as Rush said, moderates have no principles by definition.

    Where's Palin's tweet regarding Christie?

    Its amazing to see the right claim victory when last week they were calling for the heads of any moderates on-sight.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    AND all the campaigning done on behalf of Hoffman by Fox News and the Four Horsemen amounted to chickensquat.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 16:51:39

    Yep from single digit in the polls <30 days ago to within 3pts of beating BOTH the Dems and Reps. Complete failure. You are such a shallow ass…

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    She lost a national election

    Incorrect. John McCain was the nominee for POTUS. Palin got him votes he would not have received and a shit load of money from conservatives right after she was announced as the RUNNING MATE, not the nominee.

    She almost got the conservative candidate elected. Nixon believes he went from 16% support to losing by what, 4 percent and change in less than a month with Scuzzy pulling the margin of victory to herself and endorsing her opponent after Palin put her thumb down on her candidacy. As Owens, by Ko$ the Kingmakers own admission is more conservative than Scuzzy, well, you make that argument.

    Cast out your fear, you guys won it all last night. Why, Nixon read today Obamacare will pass unanimously thru both houses, even without their supermajorities on the left coming into play.

  • D-Vega

    Yep from single digit in the polls <30 days ago to within 3pts of beating BOTH the Dems and Reps. Complete failure. You are such a shallow ass… </blockquote>

    Its called losing.

    Might as well been 10 pts.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Might as well been 10 pts.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 17:04:06

    It doesn't matter Vega. Pelosi said you guys won, it's all over CNN that last night was a victory for the left. Why are you being a sore winner? Since you guys win all the elections that matter, why are you upset about winning?

  • RWNReader2

    The only facts are –

    So it's not factual to point out that Hoffman was running as a third party candidate? It's not factual to point out that the Republican endorsed the Democrat? It's not factual to point out that Hoffman was a political newbie with little time to campaign? It's not factual to point out that the election results were a plurality? It's not factual to point out that NY-23 is more liberal than most Republican districts, yet a conservative nearly won it?

    Yet your supposed list of three "facts" includes two statements that are nothing but conjecture on your part. The hypocricy of liberalism knows no bounds. Shove your blatant spin up your ass.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Its called losing.

    Might as well been 10 pts.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 17:04:06

    Then that is all you will ever understand from that election, one person won and one person lost. So the next election you will expect the same circumstances to appear, the same campaigns to be run, and the same results to be had.

    My 11 year old son has better analytical skills than you.

  • RWNReader2

    MY GOODNESS!! it is breathtaking to sit here and watch liberal after liberal have the gall to come here and try to assert that last night's results were somehow an indication that the country is clamoring for more liberalism and less conservatism.

    By all means libs, continue drinking the koolaid!

  • D-Vega

    Incorrect. John McCain was the nominee for POTUS.

    Yes, the McCain/Palin ticket. She was his "running mate". That means she lost, too. I mean, that's like common knowledge. Lost.

    Palin got him votes he would not have received and a shit load of money from conservatives right after she was announced as the RUNNING MATE, not the nominee.

    There is no proof that she got him one more vote than he would've gotten. But it did possible cost them suburban families in PA and OH, thereby losing the election. She has not proven to be an asset to anyone except a focus of adoration from the conservative base.

    She almost got the conservative candidate elected.

    That's like being almost a virgin.

    Nixon believes he went from 16% support to losing by what, 4 percent and change in less than a month with Scuzzy pulling the margin of victory to herself and endorsing her opponent after Palin put her thumb down on her candidacy.

    And gift wrapped the seat for the Dems. Good job.

    As Owens, by Ko$ the Kingmakers own admission is more conservative than Scuzzy, well, you make that argument.

    That is possible, but a moderate Dem is better than a liberal Republican.

    Cast out your fear, you guys won it all last night. Why, Nixon read today Obamacare will pass unanimously thru both houses, even without their supermajorities on the left coming into play.

    I wouldn't go that far.

  • D-Vega

    So it's not factual to point out that Hoffman was running as a third party candidate? It's not factual to point out that the Republican endorsed the Democrat? It's not factual to point out that Hoffman was a political newbie with little time to campaign? It's not factual to point out that the election results were a plurality? It's not factual to point out that NY-23 is more liberal than most Republican districts, yet a conservative nearly won it?

    That was all pointed out yesterday and before. The only thing that is factual today is that the conservative lost.

    My 11 year old son has better analytical skills than you.

    He must be a pretty sharp kid. I'm sure he understands that a win is a win and a loss is a loss.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Using D-Vega's logic Biden is THE reason why Obama won in 08. I mean the Obama/Biden ticket.

    D-Vega = Moron

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    We're only 9 months in, and a bland conservative running from a third party with 30-days notice almost won in the bluest of blue states!

    Once again, RWNReader2, your argument here is completely bunk. This "bland" conservative ran on "mainstream conservative" values. (I guess "blandness" is one of these values?) He ran as a third party candidate, but had the explicit endorsement of the Palin/Beck/Limbaugh conservative wing of the GOP. And he lost in a district any conservative — no matter how "bland" — should have won by very comfortable margins. The fact that he "almost won" in the "bluest of blue states" is meaningless because NY-23 has always been an island of red in a blue state (much like LA-02 is an island of blue in a red state). If even bland conservatives can't hold on to what should be a safe seat, that's not saying much about the appeal of the brand of conservatism being represented. Again, I'll draw from a reference that you, even in the throes of your delusional myopia, should be able to relate to: saying Hoffman "almost won" NY-23 is like claiming that a bona-fide liberal in LA-02, which any liberal Democrat should win, who actually loses (or "almost wins," if you prefer), is somehow a remarkable ringing endorsement of the strength of the liberal movement is patently absurd. A bona-fide liberal Democrat espousing strong liberal values and positions who would actually lose (or "almost win") LA-02 to a moderate Republican is NOT something liberals would be happy about. And it doesn't matter at all that Louisiana is one of the reddest of red states because LA-02 is an island of blue in this red state. In fact, such an outcome would be alarming to liberal Democrats. And I'll tell you this, if Cao defeats such a liberal Democrat in the 2010 election, I'll be truly stunned. And I say this as someone who likes Cao and crossed party lines to vote for him in the last election. Likewise, Hoffman's loss in a district he should have won, and in which Republicans have predominated in recent years, should be equally alarming to conservative Republicans. You can make the absurd claim that Hoffman's loss (or his "almost win") is somehow really a victory for "mainstream conservatism" in the "bluest of blue states," but I think you're simply deluding yourself.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    He must be a pretty sharp kid. I'm sure he understands that a win is a win and a loss is a loss.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 17:18:32

    Yep and beyond he can than figure out multiple contributing factors and what he may do or others in the future may do (learn) about a similar situation in the future. Which is exactly what you have demonstrated you cannot do…

  • D-Vega

    I didn't say anything about "THE" reason. I said there is no proof of Palin being a benefit, since her campaign FAILED.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    "There is no proof that she got him one more vote than he would've gotten. "

    D-Vega

    Nixon voted for McCain based on his running mate being a conservative. Many others have stated here and on other websites. Nixon also sent money that he would otherwise have not, based on Palin's selection.

    " But it did possible cost them suburban families in PA and OH, thereby losing the election."

    D-Vega

    On what issue do suburban families in PA and OH disagree so angrily with Palin that they changed their vote from McCain to Obama?

  • D-Vega

    Multiple variables in the future are meaningless as you don't know what the circumstances will be.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Posted by huckupchuck1

    2009-11-04 17:20:13

    Yeah leave out the part about only having this support of the big conservatves for <30 days, he did not live in the district, he had to beat the combined Rep and Dem machines.. Just leave out contributing factors so your understanding of the win can be simply "conservatism was rejected" which an idiot can figure out is clearly the wrong conclusion to come to. So in 2010 you think the Dem will hold this seat?

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    Likewise, Hoffman's loss in a district he should have won, and in which Republicans have predominated in recent years, should be equally alarming to conservative Republicans.

    Hoffman was not running as a Republican. The Republican candidate lost, pulling 6% of the vote.

  • D-Vega

    On what issue do suburban families in PA and OH disagree so angrily with Palin that they changed their vote from McCain to Obama?

    They were former big-city liberals. If you look at the results, that is where McCain met his waterloo.

    But I will grant you that Palin got McCain some true blue conservative voters. I was just messin' with you earlier.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Multiple variables in the future are meaningless as you don't know what the circumstances will be.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 17:23:59

    To you because you only know two things, who won and who lost. Clap clap clap….

  • D-Vega

    So in 2010 you think the Dem will hold this seat?

    Yes. It will be gerrymandered either way.

  • D-Vega

    To you because you only know two things, who won and who lost. Clap clap clap….

    Yup. Because that's why we have elections. To put everything passed the bullshit.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    They were former big-city liberals.

    So Palin cost McCain liberal votes in a race against a liberal.

    OK. You and Pelosi related to each other or something?

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    The political mood of the country is becoming MORE conservative, not LESS so!

    Again, a misleading and false claim. The political mood of this country is tilting the middle more towards the right. Yes, I will grant that. But the rightward shift of the middle does not mean that more people are embracing the Palin/Beck/Limbaugh/Hoffman expression of conservatism. It just means that more moderates who are leaning rightward are preferring more moderate Republican/Independent candidates – -precisely the kind of candidates that you would want to excise from the conservative movement (and which actually happened in NY-23), but they don't want the kind of conservative candidates like Hoffman, whose loss in NY-23 I think is a reflection of that.

  • RWNReader2

    p.s. The PA results prove that with George Bush out of the picture, Obama’s popularity is completely non-transferable if you’re running in a State/District that even came CLOSE to voting for McCain in ’08. That’s over 100 Dems in the House, and 20 in the Senate. Goodbye filibuster proof majority. This is why it was a good night for the cause of conservatism, with our without NY-23.

  • whats_up

    Posted by RWNReader2
    2009-11-04 13:25:17

    I was just commenting on your glorious prediction skills, perhaps you should rethink just how much you know about national politics, doesnt look like you are well educated on that subject, here’s a hint, Turn.off.the.radio.

  • RWNReader2

    Here's a few facts for you Vega:

    90 days ago, as summer came to a close and Obama/Reid/Pelosi were just beginning their full court press to cram socialized medicine down our throats, the polls suggested that the candidate conservatives would vote for would…

    Receive approximately 50% of the vote in VA. He won 60%.

    Receive approximately 45% of the vote in NJ. He won 50%

    Recieve approximately 15% of the vote in NY23. He won 46%

    But yeah, we should interpret these "facts" to mean that we're losing and the country is asking for less conservatism and more liberalism. Keep drinking!

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    In that case, it's far more instructive that Corzine didn't win re-election in the deep blue state of NJ even with the massive amount of attention and funding pumped into his campaign by Liberals from all across the country, even with the loud and unabashed Obama endorsement of his candidacy.

    Posted by CavalierX

    2009-11-04 14:50:38

    I agree, CavalierX. I've never said otherwise. While I certainly don't think it's all that unprecedented for a Republican to win the New Jersey governorship, especially one running as more of a moderate Republican, the fact that voters didn't seem to buy Corzine's game, nor Obama's endorsement of and campaigning for Corzine (and the same for VA), does spell trouble for the Democrats. Yes, it is most definitely far more instructive for Democrats. And I hope the Democrats are paying attention and not trying to pretend that there's something remarkably positive in these losses like some conservatives are trying to say about NY-23.

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    And I fervently hope they keep right on winning that way.

    Posted by CavalierX

    Ditto on how conservatives "won" in NY-23.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Yup. Because that's why we have elections. To put everything passed the bullshit.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 17:28:46

    Yep and you only can think of 2009, I can already apply lessons learned for a better approach in 2010. But if I just went by your "surface" assessment I would look for liberal rep candidates, which is the wrong conclusion to end up with. I would continue to support conservative candidates, but earlier in the process, I would avoid pushing too hard in special elections, I would ensure the candidate was from and lived in the district. Supporting a liberal Republican gets me a lib-moderate Democrat, that is not what I want to support. NY-23 proves that with better timing and planning conservative candidates can and will win.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Yup. Because that's why we have elections. To put everything passed the bullshit.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 17:28:46

    Yep and you only can think of 2009, I can already apply lessons learned for a better approach in 2010. But if I just went by your lackluster assessment I would look for liberal rep candidates, which is the wrong conclusion to end up with. I would continue to support conservative candidates, but earlier in the process, I would avoid pushing too hard in special elections, I would ensure the candidate was from and lived in the district. Supporting a liberal Republican gets me a lib-moderate Democrat, that is not what I want to support. NY-23 proves that with better timing and planning conservative candidates can and will win.

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Sorry for dupes, wife was "txt'ng me…

  • RWNReader2

    It just means that more moderates who are leaning rightward are preferring more moderate Republican/Independent candidates – -precisely the kind of candidates that you would want to excise from the conservative movement (and which actually happened in NY-23),

    You know Huck, you keep saying the same thing over and over again, doing nothing more than proving my point. We're nearly 200 posts in, and you're still LITERALLY trying to make the case that the Republican party needs more pro-tax, big government liberals so indistinguishable from liberal Democrats that they literally endorse them. Sometimes you just deserve to be called out for being an idiot.

  • CoolCzech

    “Obama didn’t lose yesterday.”

    - D-Vega

    Of COURSE not, D-Vega.

    Why… Pelosi is actually proclaiming the Demcorats WON.

    Which no doubt explains why Reid has decided to postpone the embarrasment that is a vote on Obamacare until next year or next decade or (may as well be) next century. Because you guys WON.

    Do me a favor, guys, and please “win” some MORE?

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    We're nearly 200 posts in, and you're still LITERALLY trying to make the case that the Republican party needs more pro-tax, big government liberals so indistinguishable from liberal Democrats that they literally endorse them.>/blockquote>

    RWNReader2 – I'm not saying that at all. What I am saying is that instead of having a representative who would likely vote with conservatives most of the time, NY-23 now has a Democrat who would vote with the liberals most of the time. If conservatives actually want, you know, to govern, it would be helpful to get elected. Like I said, ignore the message of NY-23 for "mainstream conservatism" to your movement's peril.

  • RWNReader2

    and btw Huck, since you've brought it up twice, our district isn't really an appropriate example to begin with – ours is about race and little else. If Cao could become black and run against a white liberal, he'd win in a landslide, and you know it.

  • D-Vega

    In fact, it’s incredibly ominous for the Democratic Socialist Worker’s Party prospects for 2010 that a Third Party Candidate almost won!

    Yeah that, and $20 (plus shipping & handling), can get you TWO ShamWows.

    You’ll say ‘wow’ everytime.

  • RWNReader2

    Posted by D-Vega
    2009-11-04 13:55:36

    Leave it to a pansy liberal to confuse robust enthusiasm with homoerotic sexual arousal. ;)

  • Living_Right_in_CA

    Posted by huckupchuck1

    2009-11-04 17:55:31

    Wrong wrong wrong. Scuzza would have voted with the Dems on crap and tax, Obamacare, and numerous other issues. Jackass !!!

  • RWNReader2

    If conservatives actually want, you know, to govern, it would be helpful to get elected

    And if we took your advise (for what type of candidate we elect), we'd NEVER govern, becuase we'd be voting for liberal republicans.

  • happirick

    A week ago, NY23 had 3 possible outcomes – 1. Great for conservatives if Hoffman won, 2. Bad if Owen won, 3. Horrible if Scozzafava won (as pointed out, she would have held the seat for years). So we got #2. At least Owen will only have 1 year before hopefully a strong conservative challenge can remove him.

  • D-Vega

    NY-23 proves that with better timing and planning conservative candidates can and will win.

    Newflash: I told you yesterday that it was yours to lose, since it was a conservative district. And you lost it.

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    RWNReader2 – Race is, indeed, a factor in LA-02. But I don't buy that if Cao were a moderate Republican black candidate running against a white liberal, that he would win in a landslide. In fact, if your theory is true, what's preventing a moderate Black republican from running? You'd think the state GOP would be promoting and cultivating black Republican challengers to any Democratic candidate, whether a black or a white liberal, for LA-02. But my basic analogy still holds. If a liberal Democrat, whether white or black, were to lose against a moderate Republican, whether white or black or Vietnamese, in a district where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a large margin, then a loss by the Democrat would be a shocking outcome. I think you overstate the role of race and understate the role of ideology and party identification in our district.

    And like many others, I'm perfectly happy to have conservative Democrats in Congress as a matter of forging a governing majority. I also very much hope that the GOP becomes captive to your brand of conservatism because it would relegate the GOP to permanent minority status. I welcome moderate Republicans and Independents into the Democratic Party. You know, as much as you complain about those "liberal Republicans" like Snowe and Collins, they seem to be holding the line against the Democrats' health care reform legislation, while Democrats like Dorgan, Nelson, Baucus and Landrieu, who are probably more conservative than either Snowe or Collins, seem to be willing to go along with the Democratic health care reform initiatives. Isn't it interesting what party identification and party discipline can do in this regard? Shed Snowe and Collins if you like, but be ready to live with the consequences. The lesson of NY-23 is clear. Ignore it at your own peril.

  • RWNReader2

    you keep saying the same thing over and over and over again: conservatism can't win, so try being a democrat lite. thanks genius. you add nothing to the discussion.

    Of course you're happy having a coalition of democrats. that's all the democratic party is: a morally vacuous confederation of special interests. We actually believe in, and stand for something. I'll take my principled beliefs over your whore party any day.

  • RWNReader2

    p.s. the LA GOP doesn't bother cultivating black conservatives because that would require a black politician that doesn't bend a knee at the alter of race hustling poverty pimps like the disgusting preacher at the corner of St. Charles and Napoleon. NOLA is (unfortunately) a machine politics town. Only "black" black politicians allowed.

  • tblrk2006

    Newflash: I told you yesterday that it was yours to lose, since it was a conservative district. And you lost it.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 21:01:38

    You mean a republican district.

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    Fine, RWNReader2. Sit high atop your morally superior high horse while we "morally vacuous" folks govern the world you live in. And yet we liberals are the ones who are supposedly the "better-than-thou" elitists! Go figure.

    By the way, when it comes to passing judgment on the morality meter, even though I know nothing about you, I'd put up my life against your life any day of the week because I know my life and would stack it up against any other. And when it comes to the morality of partisan ideologues, I'd put up Barack Obama's life against David Vitter's life or Sarah Palin's life or Rush Limbaugh's life any day of the week, too.

    I have to say, RWNReader2, that I simply can't understand why you continue to live in New Orleans given how miserable living here must make you. I don't think I've ever heard you say one good thing about the quality of public life in New Orleans.

  • http://TheNixonTape.Blogspot.Com Dick_Nixon

    since it was a conservative district. And you lost it.

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-04 21:01:38

    Ya'll said it was a Republican district, even though a few years back Democrats were elected from it. Which is it, a long term Republican district or a long term Conservative District? You seemed puzzled by the difference.

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    the LA GOP doesn't bother cultivating black conservatives

    And that pretty much sums it up and says it all.

  • http://networdblog.blogspot.com/ Christopher_Taylor

    Huck: I know you really really want to believe that but Hoffman came from no where as a third party candidate and nearly won it. With a little training and a better campaign he'd have easily won, I believe.

  • http://huckupchuck.blogspot.com huckupchuck1

    C_T – But he came from nowhere not of his own doing, but because of the very vocal endorsement and push from prominent members of the GOP. Furthermore, he had access to resources and exposure given the nature of the special election that will likely never repeat itself. He had everything going for him: money, endorsements, message, etc. Furthermore, he was in the end the only viable conservative in the race in a district that has more than 40,000 more registered Republican voters than Democrats. In a district of less than 300,000 registered voters, that's quite a significant advantage. He should have easily won anyway. Now perhaps you are correct. But it is also certainly possible that the reason why he didn't win is that his brand of conservatism just doesn't resonate with the majority of voters in his district — even voters who might identity as conservatives themselves. I think many folks here are simply refusing to entertain the possibility that Hoffman lost not because he's a wooden candidate, that he's untrained, or that he ran a poor campaign, but that what he represents ideologically is not a good fit for NY-23. And if it's not a good fit for NY-23, that should raise serious questions about its fit in other more competitive districts or states throughout the country where the ideological makeup of the electorate is much more evenly split.

  • http://networdblog.blogspot.com/ Christopher_Taylor

    Actually his resources were very limited because neither the Republican nor the Democratic party funded him. They funded his opponents. He ran a really lackluster campaign with little charisma, and wasn't very rural seeming in a rural district. With a better campaign and handlers… he wins. I realize you really don't want that to be true, but that doesn't make it so.

  • D-Vega

    The Yankees win!

  • CoolCzech

    The Yankees win!

    Posted by D-Vega

    2009-11-05 00:07:33

    I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that, D-Vega: it conjured up images of Hitler surrendering to MacArthur onboard the Arizona…

  • http://guardian.blogdrive.com/ CavalierX

    But he came from nowhere not of his own doing, but because of the very vocal endorsement and push from prominent members of the GOP.

    He came from nowhere because just a few weeks before the election, he was quietly working at his day job, having never run for political office before. And he still nearly beat both the Reps and Dems working together against him.

  • CoolCzech

    Scuzzy wasn't a loser or a thief either. She just shouldn't be a Republican.

    Posted by D-Vega 2009-11-04 10:05:29

    I think that was EXACTLY the point Sarah Palin and the conservative Republican base was making, D-Vega.

    So ditching her had very little to do with "rightwingnut extremism," right? Because it has EVERYTHING to do with making sure "being a Republican" actually means something, right?

  • RWNReader2

    C_T: The sum total to what Huck has to say on this issue amounts to nothing more than “Conservatism doesn’t work, you should switch to Democrat-lite.” Why bother beating your head against the wall?

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