Will The GOP Take The Senate Today? See The Predictions From Pundits & Pollsters

Will The GOP Take The Senate Today? See The Predictions From Pundits & Pollsters

The GOP needs to capture 6 seats to reach 51 votes in the Senate. That seems well within reach given that MOST people seem to be projecting that…

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…The GOP will win in Alaska (Sullivan), Arkansas (Cotton), Colorado (Gardner), Iowa (Ernst), Louisiana (Cassidy), South Dakota (Rounds), Montana (Daines), West Virginia (Capito)

…Republicans hold in Georgia (Perdue) & Kentucky (McConnell).

…Democrats will hold in New Hampshire (Shaheen), North Carolina (Hagan), Virgina (Warner).

…Pretend Independent Greg Orman will win in Kansas.

Election Projection: 7
The Washington Post’s Election Lab: 8
Erick Erickson: 8
Sean Hannity: 8
John Hawkins: 8
Larry Sabato: 8
Nate Silver: 8

What are the biggest potential surprises?

Well, Hagan has consistently led Tillis by a small margin in North Carolina, but she’s also a well known, incumbent senator who seems to be topping out at about 44-45% in the polls. That could very well mean that undecided voters will break hard for Tillis and put him over the top.

In Kansas, Orman would seem be in almost the same position as Tillis in North Carolina. He’s up against an incumbent senator who’s topping out well below 50%. On the other hand, Kansas has sent Republicans to the Senate since 1932 and you have to wonder if Roberts is short of 50% because a lot of bitter Milton Wolf supporters have been making him sweat it out. That makes Kansas the toughest race overall to predict.

You also can’t count Scott Brown out in New Hampshire. Shaheen has been consistently ahead by a small margin, but Brown has been surging at the end of the race and if Shaheen is ahead, it’s by the skin of her teeth.

That means in a perfect world, the GOP could win 11 seats. Since seats often tend to break one way or the other in wave elections like this, that’s not outside the realm of possibility.

On the other hand, to hold the Senate, the Democrats would need to win all the races they’re favored in AND they’d need a couple of surprises. Their best bets would be for Braley to knock off Ernst and for Begich to surprise Sullivan in Alaska, a state that’s notorious for having unreliable polling data.

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