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Are North Korea And South Korea Going To War? Probably Not.
Written By : John Hawkins

Twitter’s all abuzz with the news that North Korea has launched artillery shells at a South Korea island,

North Korea shot dozens of rounds of artillery onto a populated South Korean island near their disputed western border Tuesday, prompting South Korea to return fire and scramble fighter jets, military officials said. At least one South Korean marine reportedly was killed.

The skirmish came amid high tension over North Korea’s claim that it has a new uranium enrichment facility and just over a month after North Korean leader Kim Jong Il unveiled his youngest son Kim Jong Un as his heir apparent.

South Korea’s YTN television said one South Korean marine was killed and that two people were injured. The report said several houses were on fire and shells were still falling on Yeonpyeong island, which is about 60 miles (100 kilometers) west of the coast. The station broadcast pictures of thick columns of black smoke rising from the island.

Yonhap news agency, quoting a military official, said four soldiers were wounded.

President Lee Myung-bak ordered officials to make sure that the firing wouldn’t escalate, according to Yonhap, quoting a presidential official. YTN said between 1,200 and 1,300 people live on the island, citing an island resident.

Shelling South Korean civilians is certainly an act of war, isn’t it? So, does that mean war is about to break out? Probably not.

What you have to understand is that the Korean Peninsula is one of those troubled places in the world where this sort of crazy violence tends to happen ever so often. In that respect, it’s a little like Israel or the border between India and Pakistan. As a matter of fact, a peace treaty was never signed after the Korean War; so both of these countries are still officially at war with each other and there have been a number of small, violent clashes through the years. I’m not really a big fan of using Wikipedia for posts like this one, because it’s sometimes inaccurate, but it’s the only place I’ve run across with a well organized list of border incidents — and even if it gets a couple of these wrong, it still gives you a good general idea of the situation:

1980s

March 1980: Three North Koreans are killed while trying to cross the Han River estuary.

March 1981: Three North Koreans try to enter the South in Geumhwa-eup, Cheorwon, Gangwon-do; one is killed.

July 1981: Three North Koreans are killed trying to cross the Imjin River to the South.

November 1984: Three North Korean soldiers and one South Korean soldier die, and one American soldier is wounded during the firefight that erupted when a North Korean security detail chased a defecting Soviet citizen (Vasily Matusak) across the MDL into the southern-controlled sector of the Joint Security Area.

1990s

May 1992: Three Northern soldiers in South Korean uniforms are killed in Cheolwon, Gangwon-do; three South Korean soldiers are wounded.

May 1995: North Korean forces fire on a South Korean fishing boat, killing three.

October 1995: Two armed North Koreans are discovered at the Imjin River; one is killed.

April 1996: Several hundred armed North Korean troops cross repeatedly into the Demilitarized Zone.

May 1996: Seven Northern soldiers cross south of the Demilitarized Zone, but retreat after warning shots are fired.
May & June 1996: North Korean vessels twice cross the Northern Limit Line and have a several-hour standoff with the South Korean navy.

April 1997: Five North Korean soldiers cross the Demilitarized Zone in Cheolwon, Gangwon-do, and fire on South Korean positions.

June 1997: Three North Korean vessels cross the Northern Limit Line and attack South Korean vessels two miles (3 km) south of the line. On land, fourteen North Korean soldiers cross 70 m south of the center of the DMZ, leading to a 23-minute exchange of fire.

June 1999: A series of clashes between North and South Korean vessels take place in the Yellow Sea near the Northern Limit Line.

2000s

2001: On twelve separate occasions, North Korean vessels cross the Northern Limit Line and then retreat.

November 27, 2001: North and South Korean forces exchange fire without injuries.

June 29, 2002: Renewed naval clashes near the Northern Limit Line lead to the deaths of four South Korean sailors and the sinking of a North Korean vessel. The number of North Koreans killed is unknown.

November 16, 2002: South Korean forces fire warning shots on a Northern boat crossing the Northern Limit Line. The boat retreats. The incident is repeated on November 20.

February 19, 2003: A North Korean fighter plane crosses seven miles (11 km) south of the Northern Limit Line, and returns north after being intercepted by six South Korean planes.

March 2, 2003: Four North Korean fighter jets intercept a US reconnaissance plane over the Sea of Japan.

July 17, 2003: North and South Korean forces exchange fire at the DMZ around 6 AM. The South Korean army reports four rounds fired from the North and seventeen from the South. No injuries are reported. [8]

November 1, 2004: North Korean vessels, claiming to be in pursuit of illegal fishing craft, cross the Northern Limit Line and are fired upon by the South. The vessels retreat 3 hours later.

July 30, 2006: Several rounds are exchanged near a South Korean post in Yanggu, Gangwon.
Wikinews has related news: Korean navies exchange fire

November 10, 2009: Naval vessels from the two Koreas exchanged fire in the area of the NLL, reportedly causing serious damage to a North Korean patrol ship.[9] For more details of this incident, see Battle of Daecheong.

2010s

March 26, 2010: A South Korean naval vessel, the ROKS Cheonan, was sunk by an explosion near Baengnyeong Island in the Yellow Sea. A rescue operation recovered 58 survivors but 46 sailors were lost. On May 20, 2010, a South Korean led international investigation group concluded that the sinking of the warship was in fact the result of a North Korean torpedo attack.[10][11] North Korea denied involvement.[12] The United Nations Security Council made a Presidential Statement condemning the attack but without identifying the attacker.[13]

Why do these incidents continue to occur? The Norks shift the blame, deny they occurred, claim they were provoked — it’s always something. In other words, they use every excuse in the book. Here’s the reality: North Korea is a starving hermit kingdom that is only able to continue to function as a state because the rest of the world tosses money and aid in its beggar bowl. Ever so often, in order to try to get more goodies, the Norks act a little cRaZY. That then leads to a flurry of diplomatic activity, attention, and they hope, more aid agreements.

In other words, think of a belligerent, deranged homeless guy on a street corner. Now imagine that guy running a country and having access to nukes. Congrats! You now understand why it’s important to get nuclear weapons out of North Korea.

PS #1: Many people tend to assume that America is in South Korea to keep it from invading North Korea. There’s some truth to that. However, the reverse is also true: We want to make sure that South Korea doesn’t flip out after being provoked in this fashion and invade North Korea. This is unlikely because the Norks could probably devastate Seoul right off the bat if there were a war, but it’s not impossible to imagine things getting out of hand.

PS #2: That being said, if North Korea were to get rid of their nukes, I’d personally like to see the United States pull out of South Korea. It’s a prosperous modern country that’s significantly more populous than North Korea and it really shouldn’t need to rely on us for its defense. Of course, there’s always the possibility that China might get funny ideas about South Korea, but it seems unlikely given that South Korean trade is important to the Chinese economy and that we could still ally with South Korea without parking 25,000+ American soldiers in the country.

0
  • http://www.uncoverage.net GoldenEagle4444

    All I really care about at this particular moment in time is those “25,000+ American soldiers in country”. Obviously, we have high ranking diplomats there as well, but the North can never be trusted….not for a moment, and it won’t take much more for all Hell to break loose. The Chinese have already intervened at the diplomatic level. Let’s hope they can keep a lid on it.

  • Don_cos

    I doubt that it will actually come to war. The North is posturing. If they were serious about attacking, they would not be giving the South any warning. This is rooster strutting.

    • guest

      Don’t under estimate the NK for even a second, yes they are technology out matched but they have numbers and tactics and to me these attacks on SK and then them denying it was them is to slow, anything from happening, down. there testing the SK and the US observing the reaction gaining intel waiting for right moment could also possibly waiting for a retaliation to try and play off as the victims to try and gain support and backing. It disappoints me when people say its not our problem let them deal with it and lot of people say this. i swore an oath to defend those in need of defending whether its foreign or domestic by rights if the SK don’t want our intervention then that’s there chose and we respect it and we take step back, but if they call and ask im packing my bags grabbing my rifle. and that goes for any country in the world.

  • Anonymous

    The Norks fight Soviet style. If the curtain does go up on a renewed war, it will begin with a massive artillery barrage from the North that levels DMZ defenses then starts in on Seoul. You’ll know it when it happens. It’s also unlikely that they nuke Seoul. Start dropping explosive and chemical rounds by the tens of thousands into a city of 10 million people and the ensuing panic will do far more damage than nuking them would.

    We’re well past the time when South Korea needs our troops, and into a time where having them there at all no longer makes sense. The South doesn’t need our ground forces in a war, and the Cold War “tripwire” policy serves up 25,000 US troops on a silver platter for the promise of retaliation that would almost certainly come anyways. Japan makes a good enough Airstrip One in the event we find ourselves in a future Korean or Chinese war.

    • Good Ol Boy

      Thats an excellent assessment of the situation, sir.

  • Anonymous

    Couldn’t South Korea just build their own nukes?

    We could sell them a few hundred (reduce our stockpiles to a reasonable amount and make some much needed cash) to tide them over while they get their reactors online.

    North Korea is a small place with most of it’s population concentrated in a few areas. A handful of nukes would devastate them.

    Or if not, well it’s not our problem. I’d rather see South Koreans dying to defend South Korea than US marines.

    Also; haven’t they technically been at war this whole time?

  • Lilplayer555

    are you in korea???? how can you act like this is not a big deal. there a tens of thousands of us mittalry there and if war brakes out it will be hell on earth for those man and females.

    • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

      If war breaks out, and that’s a big IF, NK will be the target of saturation bombing inside 24 hours. US and SK air power from Alaska, SK, Okinawa, and Naval forces will begin pounding NK forces before the Nork infantry crosses the DMZ.

      This same crap has been ongoing since 1955. It’s not new and not likely to end anytime soon.

      • Anikitos

        Yeah, but problem with NK is how well they are entrenched. Mountains ranges, and thousands fortified bunkers, AA installations, NORAD styled installations, and not so weak presence as a naval-force. On top of that, NK is ready to mobilize 4 million people in a 2 weeks that were bred to be ready to die for their insane leader. BTW, NK gov is more afraid of China than USA.
        Plus one of our biggest Allie – Japan is just 2 hours away.

        • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

          The Taliban was well entrenched and fortified too. We’ve pounded many caves to rubble with bigger and better bunker busters. and much was said about the Republican Guard of Iraq, in TWO wars. They fell apart twice under US air power.

          Numbers don’t mean much when you can wipe out half a battalion with a MOAB, and break their morale. If we can crush one of the most feared units in the ME in a matter of days, NK doesn’t stand a chance, they’re less well trained, their equipment is older, and they are conscripted.

          • Anikitos

            Why don’t you read this. http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm

          • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

            So we’re to take a North Korean’s word for their strength?

          • Anikitos

            Listen bthewolf. We both know that neither Russia or China will get involved. Neither country will let USA use their airspace or airbases. We are left with SKorea, and Japan. Both countries will be shelled to high heaven by NK. There is not a city in Japan that NK missiles cannot reach. Japan is not ready for war, neither is their population. USA cannot have a supply line of personnel, hardware or support to wage war on NK its simple as that. Can USA bomb the shit out of NK? Yes they can, then what? Watch NK destroy 2nd and 3rd largest economies in Asia?

          • josh

            well if we (the U.S.) is so on top of things, then how is it the middle east conflicts have been continuing now for 8+ years, or did you forget about Vietnam and how we believed fire power can outwit smart tactics, conflicts are still continuing. I have a buddy in the armed forces, and the problem stems from our false perception that America is strong defensively and other countries are weak. We must take into account that other countries are connected with NK and to undermine that would be a huge mistake on our part!!!

          • Anikitos

            You don’t win wars with superior firepower, or technology. ALL wars are fought with soldiers’s stomachs. Literally and metaphorically speaking. Just like any fight, the person that has less to lose will probably be the last to stop fighting. Short of leveling (nuking) NK, USA cant do much.

          • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/ELCWV5ANDUEJ5D5PB35FL2LZ6Y Bildo

            Why do Liberals bring up Vietnam in every military conversation?

            To answer your questions:

            1. “well if we (the U.S.) is so on top of things, then how is it the middle east conflicts have been continuing now for 8+ years…”

            Iraq is pretty much won. If you talk to people who know what’s going on over there, the insurgents have lost their allies and have had to pull out of the neighborhoods. That’s not to say that there aren’t still issues, and Al Queda in Iraq is still operating over there, but the political entities are talking instead of shooting.

            Afghanistan is a different ball of wax. Obama mismanaged the war from the day he took office, and by establishing a definite time table, has pretty much told the enemy how long they have to hold on for until we’re gone. Gen Petraeus does have a good strategy for winning the war, but time is an issue.

            2. “…or did you forget about Vietnam and how we believed fire power can outwit smart tactics, conflicts are still continuing.”

            Vietnam was lost in Washington, not in Vietnam. N Vietnamese Generals have been quoted multiple times as saying that they wouldn’t have been able to sustain the war if Washington had simply fought it as a war instead of just trying to hold ground in S Vietnam. Cutting the Ho Chi Minh Trail, invading the North, carpet bombing the North (as Nixon ordered later in the war,) any of these tactics would have won the war, and saved millions of S Vietnamese people from despotism and for many hundreds of thousands, re-education camps.

            “I have a buddy in the armed forces, and the problem stems from our false perception that America is strong defensively and other countries are weak. We must take into account that other countries are connected with NK and to undermine that would be a huge mistake on our part!!!”

            Honestly, I don’t know what branch your buddy is in, or what his role is, but no nation could stand toe to toe with the U.S. for very long in a conventional war. This could change as China develops their military, but even they got very concerned when the U.S. rolled up Iraq’s army in less than three weeks.

            I don’t think for a second that NK has a weak army. It’s far more capable than Iraq’s, and larger as well. It’s problem is technology. U.S. air power is so much more advanced than anything the Norks have, and if we control the sky, we control the ground through smart bombs. Mobility is everything, and the Norks just wouldn’t be able to move their armies without them being wiped out.

          • Anikitos

            Sorry, Bildo but American air superiority would not make a difference. Read the article I linked.

          • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

            China won’t fight for NK neither will Russia. And despite Anikitos link our ability to wage total as a counter to a NK attack is several orders of magnitude greater.

          • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

            No you win wars by taking away the enemies will to fight. A few strikes on NKS limited infrastructure and food supplies and upwards of 75% of NKs forces will be surrendering. They are not as loyal and fanatical as most people think, they’re oppressed, starving, and miserable. They won’t fight as hard you think.

          • http://www.patriotpost.com bthewolf

            No you win wars by taking away the enemies will to fight. A few strikes on NKS limited infrastructure and food supplies and upwards of 75% of NKs forces will be surrendering. They are not as loyal and fanatical as most people think, they’re oppressed, starving, and miserable. They won’t fight as hard you think.

  • Anikitos

    North Korea is like a mentally ill child. What do you do with a mentally ill child that constantly pokes his brother with a fork?

    • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/ELCWV5ANDUEJ5D5PB35FL2LZ6Y Bildo

      Shoot him?

      • Guest

        No you nuke him

      • Guest

        No you nuke him

  • Dustin

    All North Corea is trying to do is push the US and SK to war. They are trying to push our limits.

  • Richard Cranium

    Kim Jong-Il is feeling “ronery,” so he needs to stir things up: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0W5w691w0jE

    As for their newly discovered nuclear facility, send Hans Blix to take care of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSXNJMP8ir4&feature=related

  • Richard Cranium

    Kim Jong-Il is feeling “ronery,” so he needs to stir things up: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0W5w691w0jE

    As for their newly discovered nuclear facility, send Hans Blix to take care of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSXNJMP8ir4&feature=related

  • http://www.wordaroundthenet.com Christopher Taylor

    I think things are building up there more lately than it has been for ages. North Korea has nothing to lose over war.

  • http://www.wordaroundthenet.com Christopher Taylor

    I think things are building up there more lately than it has been for ages. North Korea has nothing to lose over war.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/ELCWV5ANDUEJ5D5PB35FL2LZ6Y Bildo

    A couple of things.

    1. How did the Administration not know about the massive atomic weapons plant that was discovered by a western scientist visiting NK last week? Is the CIA too busy looking for evidence of global warming to notice a 2000 centrifuge facility being built?

    2. The UN will promise the Norks a ton of food and this will blow over like it never occurred. It’s pathetic. The only way to end it is to halt all aid whenever the Norks go off the reservation. Reward them for good behavior, not bad.

  • Lupus Solitarius

    The North would not invade the Chinese may support them economically but they would never back them militarilly. The Norks are trying to push the South and the US to war so they can look like the victims and gain some support. Four million troops is nothing when we have total air superiority we could wipe half of them out in under a week, 4 million is old school human wave tactics and you need alot more than 4 million for that, in WWII the Russians fought like that and lost 16 million against the Germans who had nowhere near our technology.

  • Anonymous

    I agree with the guy that said he’d rather see south korea defend south korea than us troops im tired of our militia dying over some conflict we didnt start or have any part in, after the korean war i’d imagine that south korea is more technilogically advanced and would hope they’d be able to defend themselves and as for north korea’s nukes i believe that they wouldn’t dare use them. China and south korea do alot of trading and they know that so out of fear of retribution i’d hope they’d be smart enough to not use them not to mention the fact that the blast effect would also effect north korea after wind comes in and spreads nuclear debri eveywhere

  • Grahamjorgi

    I just hope my life long dream of killing communists comes true! I ship out to Marine boot camp in 215 days, I wanna get some like they did in 1952!!!

    • Uiu

      you are an idiot

  • Office

    The news mumble jumble things with really no clear reason to all this. This clears all my question up….THANKS

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