District By District On The Undecided Obamacare Votes: Why The Dems Are Still In Big Trouble

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District By District On The Undecided Obamacare Votes: Why The Dems Are Still In Big Trouble

Written By : John Hawkins

If you look at the best whip count out there, at The Hill, the Dems have 36 votes that are “Firm No, Leaning No, Likely No.” After losing lefties Dennis Kucinich and Luis Gutierrez from that list, the remaining 36 votes look pretty solid. That’s problematic for the Dems because they can only have a maximum of 37 defections and despite the fact that the vote is supposed to be on Sunday, there are still 47 undecided votes (The Hill lists 48, but last night one of them, John Salzar, came out in favor of the bill).

I’m of the opinion that they’re not going to get the votes by Sunday and may not be able to get them at all. Part of the reason for that is because of the number of Democratic congressmen representing Republican leaning districts that remain in the undecided category.

This year, having a (D) beside of your name will probably cost these candidates 5-7 points off of the totals they’d otherwise get. In competitive districts, particularly Republican leaning districts where this legislation is likely to poll even worse than it does nationally, a vote for this bill is probably a political death sentence. So, let’s take a look at the remaining undecided votes and the Cook Partisan Index scores for each district:

Earl Pomeroy: R+10
Alan Mollohan: R+9
Brad Ellsworth: R+9
Zack Space: R+7
Nick Rahall: R+6
John Tanner: R+6
Glenn Nye: R+6
Baron Hill: R+6
Harry Mitchell: R+5
Tom Perriello: R+5
Bill Foster: R+5
John Boccieri: R+4
Ciro Rodriguez: R+4
Suzanne Kosmas: R+4
Jerry McNerney: R+3
Kathy Dahlkemper: R+3
Jason Altmire: R+3
Bob Etheridge: R+3
Solomon Ortiz: R+1
Mary Jo Kilroy: R+1
Henry Cuellar: R+1
John Hall: R+1
Melissa Bean: R+1
Debbie Halvorson: R+1
Bill Owens: R+1
Brian Baird: D+0
Jim Costa: D+1
Kurt Schrader: D+1
Dina Titus: D+2
Scott Murphy: D+2
Sanford Bishop Jr.: D+2
Ron Kind: D+3
Dennis Cardoza: D+3
Tim Bishop: D+3
Chris Murphy: D+4
Ron Klein: D+4
Loretta Sanchez: D+5
Paul Kanjorski: D+5
Jim Cooper: D+6
Adam Smith: D+6
Paul Tonko: D+9
Shelley Berkley: D+9
Marcy Kaptur: D+10
Richard Neal: D+13
Bobby Rush: D+33
Marcia Fudge: D+33
Michael Capuano: D+33

Yes, you’re reading that right. To get to 216 by Sunday, Pelosi will have to flip 24 out of 25 undecided congressmen in Republican leaning districts to yes — and that’s assuming she picks up every member of Congress in a Democratic district, which is not a safe assumption in a post Scott-Brown world. After all, Stephen Lynch, who just came out strongly against the bill is in a +8 Democratic district.

To me, that almost certainly looks like a heavier lift than Obama and Pelosi can manage by Sunday and looking at how things are breaking down, I think the odds are still against the bill passing at all.

CoolCzech

I have to say, John, you’re the most optimistic analyst out there at the moment, though Barone is pretty upbeat, too.

Let’s hope we’re right, ’cause the alternative is unthinkable: do we really want a world, ten years from now, when teens can’t remember a time when you could see your own doctor the same week you made your appointment? When grandma wsn’t told she couldn’t have her surgery? When healthcare wasn’t the equivalent of visiting the Motor Vehicle Department?

I saw Dean on MSNBC, gloating about how “this will increase up to 90 percent, this up to X percent.” HELL, you friggin lunatic, why don’t we just increase spending by 500 percent and get it over with?

I just pray that the Chinese tell us No, we’re not lending you any more money.
Mike_M

Yeah, this is where the Democrats either try to keep or say goodbye to their 2006 gains. A lot of these guys were elected pre-Obama so they didn’t ride his coattails to victory, and aren’t likely to place a lot of stock in his campaigning being from right-leaning districts.

The pressure is on too. Kilroy and Space are being targeted with anti-Obamacare ads in Ohio, and are already going to have an unpopular governor dragging the Democrat ticket down. They vote for Obamacare and they may as well not even bother to run in the fall.

But Pelosi doesn’t have the votes. Never did. This Sunday nonsense is just her latest attempt to create a fait accompli for the Dems. The vote won’t even happen. Now that the price of a vote has been raised to personal visits from Obama, hefty state kickbacks, and personal bribes, there are just too many votes to flip in too little time. With the pressure mounting and the price increasing, Obama and Pelosi won’t be able to hold the coalition together and it’s going to crumble from fatigue and infighting. We’ll be having this same conversation a month from now, and probably every month for the rest of the year. Pelosi’s only chance might be a lame duck session in December after the bloodbath at the polls has already played out and the Dems leaving office decide to pass the bill out of spite.
Power_System_Oper

You are playing mind games with yourselves gentlemen. When people have to start fantasizing over intricate end game scenarios which lead to victory for their side, their team is usually a huge underdog.

I’m one conservative who posts on RWN who has the guts to tell it like it is. Obamacare is a done deal. The way to defeat Obamacare in the long run is to get behind GOP Rep Paul Ryan who has a detailed plan of specific spending cuts which will balance the budget without raising taxes. The first step in that direction starts with booting out a lot of Rep Ryan’s GOP House peers in the upcoming election. There are about 150 gutless wonder GOP members of the House who refuse to sign on as co-sponsors of Rep Ryan’s plan and thus demonstrate that they are still willing to throw conservatives under the bus. Its time to send those spineless creatures packing from the halls of Congress.
Mike_M

“When people have to start fantasizing over intricate end game scenarios which lead to victory for their side, their team is usually a huge underdog.”

Like “deem-and-pass”? I agree entirely. The Dems can’t pass Obamacare with a simple vote so these unconstitutional procedural tricks are all they have left.

Obamacare is like Aeris in Final Fantasy 6…no matter how much you fanboys hope and plead, she’s dead.
Bill_Dalasio

Posted by Power_System_Oper
2010-03-19 09:39:22

No one cares what you think, hoggo.
http://PatriotPost.US bthewolf

Posted by Power_System_Oper
2010-03-19 09:39:22

Since you are not a conservative your entire post is FICTION, try again piglet.
whats_up

Like “deem-and-pass”? I agree entirely. The Dems can’t pass Obamacare with a simple vote so these unconstitutional procedural tricks are all they have left.

Posted by Mike_M
2010-03-19 10:12:39

Actually the one time there was a court challenge to “deem-and-pass” ironically by the Dems, it was unanimously upheld.

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