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Are We Finally Going To Be In Position To Win On Illegal Immigration After November?
Written By : John Hawkins

This is an incredibly telling admission that should embolden people who’re serious about fighting against illegal immigration,

Rep. Luis Gutierrez let the cat out of the bag Thursday by acknowledging that the Democrats’ 77-seat majority in the House wouldn’t be enough to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year. The next Congress will look even worse:

A leading proponent of comprehensive immigration reform admitted Thursday that “there are an insufficient number of Democratic votes” to pass a bill this year.

Rep. Luis Gutierrez’s (D-Ill.) comments are significant because he has aggressively pushed President Barack Obama to pass immigration reform during this Congress.

The Illinois Democrat appeared at a press conference Thursday to tout that 102 lawmakers — all Democrats — have signed on to his reform measure.

“There are an insufficient number of Democratic votes to pass this in the Senate or in the House. I’ve said it. There are an insufficient number. We are 102 strong, we are 102 commitment, but we are insufficient,” Gutierrez said.

Incidentally, Gutierrez’s comments line up perfectly with what Roy Beck from NumbersUSA told me in April of last year,

Roy Beck: Just look at the Senate. It looks like there’s going to be a good chance that the Senate is going to have 59 Democrats. …There were about 15 Democrats who voted against the amnesty in 2007. I think we ought to get about half of those and maybe more. If you got 8 Democrats to vote against it, that means you’d need 9 Republicans. I don’t see it. At most, I see 6 and they might not get but 2 or 3 — especially if they offend McCain.

John Hawkins: What about the House? How does that look?

Roy Beck: I don’t think Pelosi thinks she has the votes. …She goes out and makes statements that get all of us all upset and gets her applause from the Hispanic caucus. But …there were right around 50 Democrats who co-sponsored the SAVE ACT last year, which was a very, very strong enforcement bill. This amnesty will not have nearly the strength of that. I think one of the reasons that those Democrats signed that bill is that they’re from districts whose constituents are pushing them hard on this. So, I think we’d have a good chance to get 60-70 Democrats in the House to vote against that and I don’t think we ought to lose more than a half dozen Republicans. If we did that well, then we’d beat it in the House.

If they can’t get the votes for comprehensive immigration reform AKA amnesty this year, it seems unlikely that they’re going to get it done in the next few years. Combine that with an informed and skeptical public, a GOP that has been chastised into taking a security first position on the issue, and credible allegations that Obama is deliberately refusing to secure the border to use it as leverage to get amnesty, and we may finally have a genuine opportunity to go on offense after November’s elections.

If we can take the House, we can pass a tough enforcement bill that completes the fence on the border, cracks down on crooked businesses that knowingly hire illegals, and that improves interior enforcement. Then, instead of conservatives desperately fighting to stave off amnesty, Obama and the Democrats will either have to cave on an enforcement bill or take a tremendous beating with the public. It has been a long, hard road to get to this point, but next year we may finally be in a position where we can “win” on this issue in Congress.

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  • http://www.cavalierx.com CavalierX

    I predict that starting about a week after the November elections, the lame-duck Congress will pass all manner of horrific bills, amnesty and cap-and-tax among them, with the help of the Liberal Republicans.

  • Lee

    If Obama tries to do it via an Executive Order, will anyone in Congress call him on it? Doing so would be a blatant disregard for the rule of law, but so was the takeover of GM and healthcare.

  • UFKA_Smithwick

    Completely unscientific of course, but from what I've seen public sentiment seems to be swinging significantly towards actually doing something about the border.

    It's easy enough to tout open borders when we have a booming economy and need unskilled laborers. A little more difficult when we have 20% unemployment that has hit the manual labor industries particularly hard.

    It could be a historic couple of years.

    • Trench_Raider

      I too have sensed that the public as a whole have become less tolerant on the illegal issue and want something…anything…to be done about it. The support for the AZ law and the rapid dwindling of the shrill, whinng from opponents of the law seem to support that.

      But I lost much of my faith in the Republicans to do anything about the problem during the last amnesty attempt. As I've often said, this is one of those cases were both parties are bad on an issue. It's just that the Republicans are “less bad” than the Dems here. ;-)

      And yes, as Cavx points out, should the Republicans take one or both houses in Novemeber the month or so before the change over will be very, very dangerous for the country.

      TR

      • UFKA_Smithwick

        The republicans have failed in their responsibilities here it's true.

        But part of that is because the voters have allowed. Nah, scratch that, the voters bear the entire blame because we allow them to screw us over and then vote for the same SOBs next year. I think with enough support, both in total number of voters and enthusiasm, it would be possible to force a major change on how we regulate our borders.

        In fact Obamas hamfisted approach to the whole subject may end up turning a number of moderate democrats away from that party, particularly in border states.

        Obviously we could still be let down, again. But for the moment I am optimistic that we'll get some real hope and change next election cycle.

    • baoxian

      It's hardly anecdotal. The left organized a major effort to isolate and punish Arizona for their immigration law, and it's rapidly becoming a farce. Obama can't move the meter on the issue at all any longer. Also with Ted Kennedy dead, nobody on the left seems willing to stick their neck out to sponsor new legislation.

      The media is doing its best to whitewash the situation, but America clearly knows the situation is serious and the government is derelict in its duty.

  • Sammy

    This is good news, but the reality is that we still have a de facto amnesty in place with the pathetic effort we have in place to return and encourage illegals to return to their rightful homeland. “Securing the border” whatever that actually means, is certainly a worthwhile goal but it will have little to no effect on those already here or with the future millions that will simply overstay a visa. Yes, let's secure the border, but we also have to get serious on denying employment to illegals and processing and deporting those already here.

    Whatever the case, amnesty must never be part of an official agreement even after we have supposedly “secured the border”.

  • baoxian

    This is why Obama is floating the trial balloon of Amnesty by Executive Order. If the expected response is anything short of open insurrection, he'll do it. More than likely early 2011 since he'll no longer have a rubber-stamp Congress and the rest of his socialist agenda will slam to a halt.

    I suspect it's little more than a bait and switch though. Obama is taking some genuine heat now for the collapsing border situation, and he's planning on blackmailing border states with an all-or-nothing fix which will include the worst abuses of amnesty, chain migration, entitlements, and instantaneous voting rights.

    They've seen the polls, and they know they need those extra 12 million votes to hold onto power.

  • D-Vega

    You guys do know the CompImigReform (what you guys ridiculously call amnesty) nearly passed when you had a Rep majority in the Senate and Presidency, right?

    • StanW

      Yeah, we do know that, Vega. That is one fo the reason that most of them are no longer there and we now have a Democrat majority.

      Do you have a point?

      • D-Vega

        Most of them are still there, Stan. Including McCain, who is the leader of the Republican movement on the issue. And he could have been President.

        Now, since the Dems are in control, none of the Reps will touch it so they can blame and whine about Dems.

        But if they were in control, watch how quickly they would compromise.

        • StanW

          Vega, we have all been on record here. The Republicans are almost as spineless on immigration as the Democrats. I have no faith that a President McCain would have done anything any different.

          But the American people want something done and the Democrats are currently in charge. And while you can guess about what the Republicans would or would not do it they were in charge, we know what the Democrats will do about the problem. The same thing they do about all the probelsm they face. NOTHING… and blame the Republicans for the problem AND their inability to solve it.

        • the_hawk

          McCain is only just now coming up for reelection since then, D. And he is in the fight of his life. Look at how he is trying to shift WAY right on the issues.

          • D-Vega

            He cannot pretend he did not support what you would call amnesty.

          • gfchicago

            Yeah Vega, that is exactly what is doing.

            For the record all of these so called immigration reform policies that both the Repubs an Dems support are NOTHING BUT AMNESTY.

          • D-Vega

            That's only a conservative meme. Most of the illegals here will stay here as part of any reform.

            If you think that in some way 8, 10, 12 million people are going to be rounded up and sent back, you are kidding yourself. It will NEVER happen. I don't care who is President or in control of Congress.

            And that “kidding” is part of the problem. The lack of compromise on the issue (from the right) is the biggest obstacle to fixing the problem.

          • Sammy

            You send the 8, 10, 12 (more like 20) million back by making it so difficult for them to work and live here that they decide to go home on their own. It is called attrition through enforcement and it will work if it is ever seriously tried. This method does not require some kind of armed gestapo to root through suspected households in the middle of the night according to a false picture that open borders types try to create against any attempt to reverse the situation. No job, no livelihood, no money = no reason to stay around. That's all it takes.

            We tried it your way back in 1986 and again with about a dozen miniamnesties since then, and the result has always been the same — Complete failure and a worsening of the situation. How is the latest amnesty going to be any different? Isn't the definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?

            The biggest obstacle to fixing the problem is the lack of enforcement at the workplace from Obama (and Bush before him). Fix that and you fix the problem. There's no reason that Conservatives should play Charlie Brown to the liberals Lucy once again and try to kick the amnesty football.

          • Trench_Raider

            Vega, don't try to attribute views and positions to those who don't hold them. It only makes you look like a fool. Even the most vocal of the anti-illegal alien voices on the right (folks like Tancredo and Pat Buchanan) do not call for rounding up and deporting every single one of these criminals. Personally I think given today's technology and given laws allowing state and local law enforcement to help it's possible, but impractical. In any event it's not required. I've said more than once here that the example of the 1950s crack-down (Operation Wetback) shows us how it can work. If you deport enough of them and create a hostile and fearful enough enviorment most of the remaining illegals will self deport. Will absolutely 100% of them leave? No. Border jumping is like any other crime in that you can never completely stamp it out because a certain percentage of people are simply lawless by nature. But you can curtail it to the point that it's no longer a major threat.
            The first step is to close the border and round up as many as you can.

            The biggest obstacle to solving the problem (and I'm suprised given your historic “soft” stance on illegals you even admit there IS a problem) is the fact that both political parties have an interest in keeping the flow of illegals coming. The Republicans wasnt cheep labor for their big business contributors and are pandering to the Hispanic vote. The Dems see third worlders as the perfect voter and (icorectly) see this as a “social justice” issue as well. So there is no real incentive to fix the problem in a meaningful way.

            Finally this is an issue that we on the Right should NOT compromise on. It's the biggest threat that we as a nation face today….far more than the threat posed by international Islamic terrorism. One only has to compre the numbers of people killed by terrorist attacks to those killed by illegals and the finantial cost of illegals compared to the War on Terror to see that. Also last I checked, Islamic terrorists were not demographicly and culturally damaging the US.

            TR

          • gfchicago

            Yeah Vega look what the '86 compromise got us, we started out with what 3 million illegals? Now we have anywhere from 12 to 20 million, that's the problem.

            Secure the damn border first then we will talk. You just can't trust our ruling elite in this country. Show us the money first.

          • UFKA_Smithwick

            So we can put a man on the moon but not deal with illegal immigration within our own borders? I disagree, I don't think so little of this country.

            It wouldn't even be that hard to get most to leave on their own. Simply crack down on business owners hiring them such that there is no longer a financial incentive to hire that.

            Couple that with increased enforcement within and along the border and we can have the situation in hand within a few years.

            It will mean that we will have to (gasp!) detain and deport people primarily belonging to a certain ethnic group. So we'll have to get over our nations obsession with race. And we will have to actually attempt it rather than continuing our policy of doing nothing and hoping for the best.

          • the_hawk

            My point on McCain was that the reason he is still there is because he wasn't up for reelection until now.

            And I never called the Bush bill an amnesty. I thought it would have been a good first step IF it had been enforced. The problem with immigration reform right now is that most people don't trust our government to enforce existing law. I've always said that we need enforcement, not reform.

    • Sammy

      Ridiculously call amnesty? How so? If anything, amnesty is way too generous a term since the illegals are essentially allowed to keep their ill gotten good (legal residency) on top of not having to serve any kind of true punishment for their crimes. A true amnesty would simply not prosecute the criminals for their crimes.

      • D-Vega

        Because amnesty is without penalty. And the way the bill was written before included penalties.

        Also, becoming a citizen would not be instant, it still would take years. But it would be a road to citizenship once they have proven committement.

        • Sammy

          Penalties? You're not serious are you? A slap on the wrist and other minor penalties that would probably never be enforced anyway does not eliminate the fact that the illegals essentially serve no real punishment. And again, the illegals are then rewarded with legal title to their ill gotten good.

          The whole thing is like stealing $1,000 dollars and having it legally resolved by the thief getting to keep the $1,000 while having to pay a $10 fee for their illegal activity. If you want to make the case that the $10 fee is a punishment and therefore there is no amnesty for the crime then knock yourself out.

          And it ain't about the citizenship. It's about the legal residency — that's all that matters here. And the legal residency is immediate and irrevocable.

        • baoxian

          Right. You mean a “fine” that would have been instantly stricken down as an ex-post facto law (you can't impose a new penalty for crimes committed in the past), and make the illegals take a vacation back home before being ushered to the front of the citizenship line.

          It was 100% amnesty, and the American people recognized it as the sovereignty-destroying, economy-killing, Ted Kennedy-written abomination that it was.

          Now Obamateur can't even rely on his rubber-stamp Congress to pass a bill, and he's going to try and implement it by dictatorial fiat.

        • Sammy

          And another thing…. The 1986 amnesty was referred to as an amnesty by both supporters and detractors alike both at the time and now as we talk about it historically. The 1986 amnesty had a similar mix of fees, fines, and procedures as what was proposed several years ago, yet everyone agreed that it was still an amnesty in 1986.

          The only thing that has changed between, 1986, 2007 and today is that Bush and other amnesty supporters a few years ago and today realized the unpopularity of the term “amnesty”; not to mention that it wouldn't make sense to propose the same policy/remedy that failed so miserably in 1986. So the marketing geniuses at the White House came up with new terms such as “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” and “Earned Citizenship” to describe what was exactly the same thing as what everyone previously agreed to call an amnesty.

        • UFKA_Smithwick

          “Because amnesty is without penalty. And the way the bill was written before included penalties. “

          Well I suppose if you consider, as many on the left do, that being a US citizen is a punishment then yeah, it comes with a penalty.

        • Christopher_Taylor

          I haven't read the old bill to know for certain like you apparently have but what I understood is that it wiped the slate clean for illegals in the country and gave them a chance to become citizens. I call that amnesty, don't you?

          • the_hawk

            As I understood it, the illegals here would have to pay back taxes and some fines, but they would have to leave and go to the back of the line and come back following legal means. I think the best place to start would be to build the fence and go after employers. Then, the Bush plan would be a very humanitarian way of dealing with those who are already here.

    • UFKA_Smithwick

      So because Republicans tried it that makes it ok for dems to likewise do it?

      I personally think it's possible for both parties to agree on an issue, and for both of them to be wrong.

      Actually when they do agree it's typically to the detriment of us little people.

  • http://www.cavalierx.com CavalierX

    Vega: if I walk into your house because the door was left unlocked and take your expensive HD tv, should I be allowed to keep it if I just pay a token $5 fine to your town council? If I steal your car, should I be given a registration in my name because you weren't driving it at the time? Illegal acts are still illegal, no matter how many people commit them and how many people ignored them before now.

  • Christopher_Taylor

    What part of “having more Republicans in congress” translates into “so something good will be done about the border” to you? Four years ago when they had power, they tried to ram amnesty through and ignored any real attempt to remedy the situation in favor of a big government “comprehensive” bill. What in the hell has given you the impression that the GOP leadership has in any slightest way changed on this issue, or any other?

  • huckupchuck

    In the past, I have often resorted to a silly reference to Winnie-the-Pooh's “blustery day” in the 100 Acre Wood to critique conservative histrionics over comprehensive immigration reform. Sometimes my silly little joke rubbed people the wrong way, but my intention with it was simply to point out that for all the bluster, I maintained that the only thing that would prevail in the immigration debate is the status quo ante. I still think this is true, which means that I think Hawkins is a bit premature to suggest a “win” on the issue post-November. I do agree that there is a shift in public mood somewhat, but I don't think it means a victory for the “security first” position. Yes, I think it means that Comprehensive Immigration Reform is a non-starter; but I don't think it means anything more than that. There is too much division among the Republicans and among the Democrats to move in any particular policy direction. So, even if the GOP takes back control of the House and the Senate come November, I still think any kind of immigration reform, including “security first,” will not prevail. All of which means that we will continue to have a lot of hot air and blustery rhetoric about the subject, but still suffer under the broken system we currently have in place.

  • D-Umbshit

    Oh, here you wingnuts go again, attacking the poor little brown people, mi gente, mi RAZA!

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