Question: "What happens to social conservatives if Rudy is the nominee, the "base" stays home, and he wins anyway?" -- RtWingNtCase

Answer: I think it would mean that people would pay a lot less attention to the wants and desires of social conservatives because they'd assume that they were unable to make an impact during an election.

Two things about that though.

#1) The fact is that social conservatives aren't toothless and if they stay home, Rudy probably won't win the election. This is why the whole "Rudy is the most electable candidate" meme is a myth.

#2) If Rudy does become the nominee, social conservatives will have a very strong incentive to stay home because a victory by Rudy would be treated as a signal that their concerns would no longer have to be taken seriously.

This is why Rudy would be such a dangerous nominee for the GOP. Having him as our standard bearer would create a situation where an important part of the Republican base would either have to torpedo him or become largely irrelevant.