You never know how much stock to put in the rumors that are flying around about big appointments like this -- actually, it's a good idea not to put too much stock in them. The ones about the Supreme Court picks for Bush were usually wrong.

However, at the moment, what's being said is that Romney and Pawlenty are out -- which is a bit of a scary prospect because those are the two "safe" picks that were most often mentioned on McCain's short list.

My first thought after hearing people say that Romney and Pawlenty were out (and how many people really know if they are besides John McCain?) was that it was going to be Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge...gulp!

But now, the hot name is Sarah Palin (Incidentally, last night it was Tim Pawlenty, who is supposedly now out). Palin is conservative, attractive, popular with the base, and would be an exciting, changey pick.

That being said, I really don't think someone with only 2 years of relevant experience (She was elected governor of Alaska in 2006) should be the Vice-President. I also think her selection would undercut McCain's "not ready to lead" attacks on Obama although, in all fairness, I think someone who has been a governor for 2 years is more qualified to be President than someone who has been a senator for 4 years. The bottom line, however, is that neither of them is really qualified.

If that's the case, why would McCain choose Palin? Well, she does have some real strengths.

* The conservative base would love her.
* She would strongly appeal to Hillary voters.
* She would help McCain go head-to-head with Obama on the "change" meme.
* She is probably the best of the women McCain could pick if the rumors about him and Kay Bailey Hutchinson not getting along are true.

In any case, we'll know soon enough whether it's Palin or someone else.

Update #1: For whatever it's worth, Palin is supposedly in Alaska, not Ohio. If it's Lieberman or Ridge, I am going to throw things -- heavy things.

Update #2: Confirmation is popping up everywhere that it is indeed, Sarah Palin. Via Lorie Byrd at Wizbang, here is "The Top 10 Reasons Mccain's VP Should Be Alaska Governor Sarah Palin."

Update #3: Vote in the RWN poll.

Update #4: Bill Kristol, who has outstanding sources and is in tight with the McCain campaign, says it's Palin. That's almost as good as an official announcement. (Campaign has now confirmed, too)

Update #5: A friend of mine was just asking me how Palin matches up with Biden in the experience department. The honest answer is that she doesn't. But, if it was all about experience and worthiness for the job, Biden would be in the top slot and Obama would be his VP.

On a similar note, Palin isn't experienced enough to be VP, but in my opinion, her 2 years as a governor is better preparation to be President than Obama's 4 years as a senator. So, if she ain't qualified, then he really ain't qualified.

Update #6: I wonder if Obama is having 2nd thoughts about having passed over Hillary as his veep now?

Update #7: RWN did a poll of right-of-center bloggers earlier this week on McCain's VP selections and 31% of them chose Sarah Palin. That tied her for first place with Mitt Romney.

Update #8: In case you're wondering if Palin is tough enough to hang in there with Biden on the campaign trail, her nickname in Alaska, "Sarah Barracuda," would suggest she is a lot more ferocious than she looks.

Update #9: Watching McCain's intro of Palin. This is the most excited I have seen a McCain crowd all year long -- by far! The choice of Palin is firing people up!

Update #10: Sarah Palin, "I told Congress, thanks but no thanks to that Bridge to Nowhere." The direct appeal to Hillary voters was magnificent. The Sarah Palin role-out was a complete home run.