Rightblogs Congressional Candidates
(PA-12) Bill Russell: Murtha (58)% vs. Russell (42)%
(CA-04) Tom McClintock: McClintock 50% vs. Brown 50%
(PA-11) Lou Barletta: Kanjorski (52%) vs. Barletta (48%)
(MD-01) Andy Harris: Kratovil (49%) vs. Harris (49%)
(PA-04) Melissa Hart: Altmire (56%) vs. Hart (44%)
(WI-08) John G Gard: Kagen (54%) vs. Gard (46%)
(TX-22) Pete Olson: Olson (53%) vs. Lampson (45%)
(GA-08) Rick Goddard: Marshall (57%) vs. Goddard (43%)
(PA-10) Chris Hackett: Carney (56%) vs. Hackett (44%)
(AZ-05) David Schweikert: Mitchell (53%) vs. Schweikert (44%)
(CA-11) Dean Andal: McNerney (55%) vs. Andal (45%)
(OH-15) Steve Stivers: Stivers (48%) vs. Kilroy (43%)
(Fl-16) Tom Rooney: Rooney (60%) vs. Mahoney (40%)
Summary: Once again, this was another tough year for the GOP and it was definitely reflected in the mediocre $4,621 take we had compared to the almost 300k we took in last year. Unfortunately, this time around, we (this was a collective effort amongst a group of bloggers) began our fundraising effort right as the bailout hit. That simultaneously deflated the conservative base AND made people worried about their financial future, so it really killed our numbers.
All in all, 4 out of our 13 candidates won. That's not a great ratio, but given that we chose no incumbents and the GOP once again got spanked on the congressional level, it's not horrible either.
My Senate Race Predictions
State: Virginia
Competitors: Mark Warner (D) Vs. James Gilmore (R)
My Analysis: Warner wins. Dem takeover.
Result: Warner (64%) vs. Gilmore (34%)
State: New Mexico
Competitors: Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R)
My Analysis: Udall wins. Dem Takeover
Result: Udall 61% vs. Pearce 39%
State: Alaska
Competitors: Ted Stevens (R) vs. Mark Begich (D)
My Analysis: Begich wins. Dem Takeover.
Result: Stevens (48%) vs. Begich (47%)
State: Colorado
Competitors: Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D)
My Analysis: Udall wins. Dem Takeover
Result: Udall (52%) vs. Schaffer (43%)
State: New Hampshire
Competitors: John Sununu (R-NH) vs. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
My Analysis: Shaheen wins. Dem Takeover.
Result: Shaheen (52%) vs. Sununu (45%)
State: Oregon
Competitors: Gordon Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D)
My Analysis: Edge to Merkley (75/25)
Result: Merkley (48%) vs. Smith (47%)
State: North Carolina
Competitors: Elizabeth Dole (R) vs. Kay Hagan (D)
My Analysis: Edge to Hagan (75/25)
Result: Hagan (53%) vs. Dole (44%)
State: Minnesota
Competitors: Norm Coleman (R) vs. Al Franken (D) vs. Dean Barkley (I)
My Analysis: Slight edge to Coleman (60/40)
Result: Coleman 42% vs. Franken 42% vs. Barkley (15%)
State: Georgia
Competitors: Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D)
My Analysis: Edge to Chambliss (75/25) (If nobody hits 50%, which is possible because of a Libertarian in the race, there will be a runoff. That's something Chambliss should really try to avoid if at all possible.)
Result: Chambliss (50%) vs. Martin (47%)
State: Mississippi
Competitors: Roger Wicker (R) vs. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention (90/10)
Result: Wicker (55%) vs. Musgrove (45%)
State: Kentucky
Competitors: Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D)
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention. (90/10)
Result: McConnell (53%) vs. Lunsford (47%)
Summary: Assuming Franken doesn't steal the race from Coleman when they do the recount, I called 10 out of 11 Senate races correctly.
I do have to admit that the Stevens win is a bit of a mystery, but I'd theorize that he was helped by the enormous victory margin Palin helped provide in the state and that a lot of Republicans were embarrassed about supporting him and as a result, they lied to the pollsters.
My State Predictions In The Presidential Race
State: Arizona
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention (90/10)
Result: McCain (54%) vs. Obama (45%)
State: Montana
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention (90/10)
Result: McCain 50% vs. Obama (47%)
State: Georgia
My Analysis: Leaning McCain (75/25)
Result: McCain (52%) vs. Obama (47%)
State: North Carolina
My Analysis: Slightly leaning McCain (60/40)
Result: Obama (50%) vs. McCain (49%)
State: Indiana
My Analysis: Slightly leaning McCain (60/40)
Result: Obama (50%) vs. McCain (49%)
State: Florida
My Analysis: Toss-up (50/50)
Result: Obama (51%) vs. (49%)
State: Ohio
My Analysis: Toss-up (50/50)
Result: Obama (51%) vs. (47%)
State: Missouri
My Analysis: Toss-up (50/50)
Result: McCain (50%) vs. Obama (47%)
State: Colorado
My Analysis: Leaning Obama (75/25)
Result: Obama (53%) vs. McCain (47%)
State: Virginia
My Analysis: Leaning Obama (75/25)
Result: Obama (52%) vs. McCain (47%)
State: Minnesota
My Analysis: Leaning Obama (75/25)
Result: Obama (54%) vs. McCain (44%)
State: Nevada
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Pick-up (90/10)
Result: Obama (55%) vs. McCain (43%)
State: New Mexico
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Pick-Up (90/10)
Result: Obama 57% vs. McCain (42%)
State: Iowa
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Pick-up (90/10)
Result: Obama (54%) vs. McCain (45%)
State: Pennsylvania
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)
Result: Obama (55%) vs. McCain (44%)
Summary: Out of the non-toss-up states, I got 10 out of 12 right. I did miss Indiana and North Carolina, both of which I thought had a 60% chance of going to McCain.
In retrospect, I think I underestimated the "craptacularness" of McCain's get-out-the-vote effort. Although the campaign was claiming it had a better GOTV effort than 2004, they were so short on money and grassroots enthusiasm, that it had to have just killed them. I suspected it wouldn't be a great effort, but I thought they might have been able to make up for it with more voter contacts early on. In the end, it didn't happen and McCain underperformed.
I predicted the final electoral count would be Obama 311 vs. McCain 227. However, that was based on Obama losing Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina.
The actual final count was 364 vs. 174. Congrats to Larry Sabato for nailing it.
On the Senate side, I predicted 7 seats. Because of the Stevens surprise, it looks like the Dems are going to pick-up 6 if Coleman hangs on. Nobody I know of called that right.
I predicted the final vote percentage would be Obama 52% vs. McCain 47%. It looks like it's actually going to be Obama 53% vs. McCain 46%. So, I missed a 1% shift or so there.
Also see,
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Score:
John Hawkins | 11:02 AM |
