State: Virginia
Seat Currently Held By: John Warner (R)
Competitors: Mark Warner (D) Vs. James Gilmore (R)
RCP Spread: Warner +28.6
My Analysis: Warner wins. Dem takeover.
State: New Mexico
Seat Currently Held By: Pete Domenici (R)
Competitors: Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R)
RCP Spread: Udall +14.6
My Analysis: Udall wins. Dem Takeover
State: Alaska
Seat Currently Held By: Ted Stevens (R)
Competitors: Ted Stevens (R) vs. Mark Begich (D)
RCP Spread: Begich +10.3
My Analysis: Begich wins. Dem Takeover.
State: Colorado
Seat Currently Held By: Wayne Allard (R)
Competitors: Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D)
RCP Spread: Udall +12.5
My Analysis: Udall wins. Dem Takeover
State: New Hampshire
Seat Currently Held By: John Sununu (R)
Competitors: John Sununu (R-NH) vs. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
RCP Spread: Shaheen +9.6
My Analysis: Shaheen wins. Dem Takeover.
State: Oregon
Seat Currently Held By: Gordon Smith (R)
Competitors: Gordon Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D)
RCP Spread: Merkley +5.3
My Analysis: Edge to Merkley (75/25)
State: North Carolina
Seat Currently Held By: Elizabeth Dole
Competitors: Elizabeth Dole (R) vs. Kay Hagan (D)
RCP Spread: Hagan +4.3
My Analysis: Edge to Hagan (75/25)
State: Minnesota
Seat Currently Held By: Norm Coleman (R)
Competitors: Norm Coleman (R) vs. Al Franken (D) vs. Dean Barkley (I)
RCP Spread: Coleman +2.8
My Analysis: Slight edge to Coleman (60/40)
State: Georgia
Seat Currently Held By: Saxby Chambliss (R)
Competitors: Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D)
RCP Spread: Chambliss +3.0
My Analysis: Edge to Chambliss (75/25) (If nobody hits 50%, which is possible because of a Libertarian in the race, there will be a runoff. That's something Chambliss should really try to avoid if at all possible.)
State: Mississippi
Seat Currently Held By: Trent Lott (R)
Competitors: Roger Wicker (R) vs. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
RCP Spread: Wicker +10
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention (90/10)
State: Kentucky
Seat Currently Held By: Mitch McConnell (R)
Competitors: Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D)
RCP Spread: McConnell +5.7
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention. (90/10)
Final projection: The GOP seems likely to lose 7 seats. That number will be less if Elizabeth Dole in NC or Gordon Smith in Oregon can pull off upsets. On the other hand, the GOP could lose 8 if Norm Coleman doesn't pull it out -- and as always, there's a reason they hold elections instead of just looking at the polls -- that's because there can be surprises.
PS: After the election, what happens with Joe Lieberman could be huge. The Dems are dying to kick him out of their caucus, but in retaliation, he could refuse to help them shut down filibusters and refuse to go their way on key votes.
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