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Q&A Friday 104: What Will Obama Do If Libs Take A Beating In 2010?
Written By : John Hawkins

Question: “If the republicans take the House next year, do you think that Obama will moderate and work with republicans, like Clinton, and have a shot at reelection at 2012; or he is just too liberal for that and will continue with his policies, risking defeat at 2012?” — gustn

Question: “Having proven yourself over the last few election cycles to be a better-than-average political handicapper, how many seats do you think the GOP will pick up next year in the House and Senate?” — President_Friedman

Answer: These are both very interesting questions, but I can’t give definitive answers to either. It’s too early in the cycle.

However, the most likely outcome at this early date is that the GOP will pick up a few Senate seats and a considerable number of House seats — but probably not enough to take over either chamber. In the Senate, it would be almost impossible to pull it off and although theoretically, the GOP might be able to take the House back — wow, we would really need to have a hell of a year.

So if that happened, the question would be what next for Obama? Would he take it as a message from the country that he was pulling too far to the Left?

The intriguing thing is that my guess is that the analysis from the Left would be that they lost because they didn’t go FAR ENOUGH to the Left. The stimulus wasn’t big enough, Obama was too soft on conservatives, he didn’t push hard enough to get liberal legislation through, etc. That would seem to fit with Obama’s natural inclination, too, which is to veer way off to the Left and to send his lackeys out to launch a lot of attacks on the opposition. In addition, Obama might be thinking that he’d need his base to win in 2012 — and so, he might be tempted to ramp up the leftism to fire them up, instead of moving to the middle, to try to recapture voters who’ll have already pegged him as a radical lib.

On the other hand, after getting spanked, Clinton moved to the middle. That was politically smart and since Obama would have a very difficult time getting his agenda through without catering to Republicans, he might choose that path as well.

It’ll be enthralling to see which way Obama turns when the heat is on.

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  • RtWingNtCase

    Winning enough seats to stop the agenda but not enough to be on the blame line as the party in control of Congress would be the best thing for us as we move towards 2012.

  • http://www.superdickery.com mightysamurai

    I think Obama will whine and moan, hold lots of press conferences lamenting those awful Republicans who keep blocking his agenda, and be generally ineffective for the remainder of his term.

  • Corperate_Cabana

    It ALWAYS comes down to that fundamental rule of professional politics: Keep your seat….at any cost.

    With Democrats (and lately only them) history defines it pretty clearly for them even when there was no change in the leadership/majority in Congress.

    Jimmy Carter was never going to change even (call it his natural stupidity or whatever) when it was clear the path he was on had failure written all over it. Maybe he knew Ronald Reagan was going to cream him anyways, but the last few decades have shown that Jimmy still hasn’t changed. Good to stick to your principals, but bad if you want to hold onto your seat.

    Bill Clinton didn’t wait until the 1994 elections to change: the moment HillaryCare died he began to slow tick toward the middle. By the time the Republicans took over the House Clinton had one foot already in the moderate doorway. By 1996, against a weak Bob Dole and a third party candidate distorting the election, Clinton secured his second term at the expense of his base and the loss of many Democratically-held seats.

    Although it did not effect him in 2004, the moment George W. Bush departed from the right to head towards the middle in 2005 spelled down for many Republicans in 2006. Unlike George Senior who waited one month into his Presidency to piss off every Conservative in America, Dubya waited five years: a bad miscalculation nonetheless.

    Now whether the ObamaCare vote passes or not, Democrats will be heading into defeats next year: it’s certain. I say if it passes there will be major Democrat loses; if not, it won’t be so bad so long as Barrack Obama decides what’s good for his party and not for himself. Unfortunately for the rest of his party, if Obama pulls off a Clinton, they’re done.

  • RWNReader2

    Wrong wrong wrong, all of you. Obama has something Clinton never had. Not only will Obama ratchet up the liberal line to energize the ideological base, but you will see a full court press of the race card. The MSM will be left with attempting to downplay racial violence against whites as “local issues” driven by “a poor Bush economy” while desperate Obama operatives canvass black neighborhoods sewing the seeds of revolt against the “white party” trying to take down “their” president. The playbook you saw this Summer was nothing more than a sophmoric warmup to what we have coming if this happens in Congress.

  • RWNReader2

    remember people, these are extreemist radicals playing for keeps. They will gladly sacrafice defeat in 2012 to teach the next generation how to take down the free enterprise system.

  • rmiller

    Question: “If the republicans take the House next year, do you think that Obama will moderate and work with republicans, like Clinton, and have a shot at reelection at 2012; or he is just too liberal for that and will continue with his policies, risking defeat at 2012?” — gustn

    One of Obama’s failures is that he has been trying to work with republicans. They clearly have no interest in working with him, so even though he might lose the majority in the mid terms, there is no motivation for him to work with them. Why should he? They haven’t worked with him.

    “So if that happened, the question would be what next for Obama? Would he take it as a message from the country that he was pulling too far to the Left?”

    Depends on the scale of the defeat. We all expect the opposition party to gain seats in an off- year election. If it is on a monumental scale….perhaps he needs to reconsider his agenda. If the defeat is within reason….that’s the price of doing business in politics. We’ll have to wait and see the outcome.

    Personally, even if the Republicans gain well in the mid-terms, I would like to see the President draw a bright line between his policies and those of the opposition.

    It would give the country a clear choice in 2012. We are faced with clear choices in our politics and I would hate to see the President muddle them by trying to work with an opposition dedicated to defeating his policies.

  • BIG

    One of Obama’s failures is that he has been trying to work with republicans. They clearly have no interest in working with him
    Posted by rmiller
    2009-11-22 13:33:01

    There are two medical doctors in the US Senate. Not only has Obama not met with either one of them, he has refused their requests for a meeting. If you believe inviting a Senator from Maine to the White House is working with Republicans, then there is no hope for you. Obama has no interest in reaching an agreement with Republicans on healthcare. He would have to include tort reform, selling insurance across state lines, and othe things that might actually reduce the cost. The current legislation does nothing to lower costs, it is only an attempt to take over the healthcare industry. What makes you think that insurance companies can survive when their competition is also their regulator and their competition can print funny money at will. Private health insurance will not be able to compete in that kind of environment and will go the way of the Dodo.

    I just hope that no one you care about needs a mammogram.

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