Q&A Friday #106: Under What Conditions Do You See A Primary Challenger Emerging From The Democratic Party

by John Hawkins | May 20, 2011 4:05 am

Question: Under what conditions do you see a primary challenger emerging from the Democratic Party? — Martin Hale

Answer: If you’re talking about a Kucinich type protest candidate mounting a futile challenge, that might not take much. The Left is unrealistic, impossible to please, and who knows what sort of “last straw” could convince a publicity-hungry candidate to announce.

A serious challenge, on the other hand, is another matter entirely. That would probably require Obama’s approval numbers to completely collapse, much as they did for George W. Bush at the end of his 2nd term.

There are two reasons it would probably take that kind of implosion.

#1) Knocking off a sitting President in a primary would be EXTRAORDINARILY difficult, especially since there’s no stand-out candidate who’s going to be viewed as head and shoulders better than Obama by the Left.

#2) The race factor would be huge. Not only would the primary candidate be tarred as a racist by people on “her own side”, the black vote, which could be 25% of the primary voters, would go almost exclusively to Obama.

So, barring Obama’s presidency turning into the Hindenburg, he probably won’t face a serious challenge.