Election Day 2002

Election Day 2002: Today is the big day! I’d encourage everyone to go out and vote — well except the liberals who read this page. This might be a good day for you guys to listen to your Steve Earle CDs all day or dig into Michael Moore’s “Stupid White Men.”

But for the rest of you, here are a few things to keep in mind and watch for…

* If everything goes perfectly for the Democrats they’ll…

— Add a few seats in the House
— Add 2 or 3 seats in the Senate
— Have the majority of governorships

* If everything goes perfectly for the GOP we’ll…

— Add a few seats in the House
— Take control of the Senate
— Hold on to the majority of governorships

* Most of the polls seem to be trending Republican — except Zogby.

* Expect the Democrats to try to steal a lot of elections that are close in the courts this time around.

* If the Dems lose the Senate, expect them to turn on Daschle, Gephardt, and McAuliffe with a vengence. Traditionally in off-year elections, the party out of the White House cleans up. While the economy hasn’t been bad, it has been soft which should have also helped the Democrats. The Dems SHOULD BE picking up 20-30 seats in the House and 3 or 4 seats in the Senate. If the GOP takes back the Senate when the Dems should be dominating, expect heads to roll.

* If the GOP picks up Minnesota, it’ll be because of the Wellstone “Memorial Service.”

* The two most interesting governor’s races…

— Bush vs. McBride in Florida: “Terry McAuliffe” said that his No. 1 goal in the Nov. 5 elections was to defeat Gov. Jeb Bush in Florida.” But recent polls show that Bush is up in the high single digits (or 15 points if you buy into Zogby’s latest polling data). The Democrats have their hopes up about this one and having Jeb pull out a victory would sting…

— Davis vs. Simon in California: Everyone has written off Simon in this race but late polling data suggests this one may still be in play. Internal Republican polls put Bill Simon IN THE LEAD by 3 points. Moreover, the numbers from the California Field Poll show this one isn’t over yet…

“But even such public surveys as the California Field Poll, completed on Thursday with an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, had Mr. Davis ahead by only seven points, with 25 percent undecided — highly unusual in the closing days of an election.”

Davis still has the edge, but Simon still appears to be in the race. If Simon somehow manages to pull this one out, it would be HUGE.

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