Obama Can’t Vote Present On Pakistan

by John Hawkins | April 24, 2009 10:32 am

What’s going on in Pakistan right now[1] has the potential to be one of the most significant developments in world history.

The always shaky Pakistani government is teetering more precariously by the day and a motley collection of Taliban, Al-Qaeda thugs, random terrorist groups, and tribesmen are moving ever closer to getting their hands on an estimated cache of 60-70 nuclear weapons.

Obviously, this is an extraordinarily dangerous situation because it has the potential to lead to nuclear bombs being detonated by Al-Qaeda in cities around the world, including most importantly, here in the US.

This is not an entirely unexpected development. Pakistan has been unsteady for a long time although it seems likely that Barack Obama’s weakness has emboldened the worst elements in Pakistan to make their move now. So, what should we expect to see in Pakistan — and what should we do about it?

First off, I have yet to hear a good explanation of why Pakistan’s 1.4 million man army is being pushed back across the country by ragtag bands of tribesmen and terrorists other than that they’re deliberately choosing not to fight in hopes of letting the situation calm down.

That being said, given Pakistan’s history, you have to think that if the situation doesn’t improve soon, it could lead to the current government being replaced by a military coup. There are Pakistani generals with a lot of sway in that country and it’s hard to see them just standing by while the last bastions of civilization in that country are overrun by backwards savages. Granted, there are some elements of the military and ISI that are loyal to the radical Islamists, but they don’t make up the majority of the forces.

The real question may turn out to be: what is Barack Obama going to do to prevent Al-Qaeda from getting its hands on 60-70 nuclear weapons? We’re already training and advising the Pakistani government forces, but at some point we may have to do more.

We certainly don’t want to get into a Vietnam type situation where we’re pouring ground troops into that country unless we have no other choice, but if it’s requested, we should certainly be willing to use American air power to support Pakistani troops on the ground and destroy the supply lines of the terrorists and tribesmen.

That’s certainly not an option we should consider lightly, nor is it one that the Pakistani government would lightly consider asking for — given the amount of anti-American sentiment in that country, but we can’t afford to take anything off the table at this point.

If we get into a position where the government falls, we could end up with a nearly lawless state of 176 million people, barely controlled by terrorists and tribesmen, who’d immediately be a risk to launch nuclear weapons at India or send them across the world via terrorists to be detonated in major Western cities. If we did get into that situation, it would make for the strongest case for pre-emptive action since Germany in the 1930s.

That why, hopefully, despite all contrary indications, Barack Obama is on top of this potential disaster and is taking strong steps to effectively deal with this situation before it gets further out of hand.

Just to be clear, this is not a crisis Barack Obama can vote “present” on. It is his responsibility, as the President of the United States, to make sure we don’t end up with a situation where the world’s most dangerous terrorists have control of some of world’s most dangerous weapons while he stands idly by, giving speeches about change and hope. Millions of American lives, literally, could end up being lost if Barack Obama isn’t able to effectively deal with this situation.

PS: For all those kooky, pie-in-the-sky libs who say, “If the United States has nuclear weapons, why shouldn’t everybody” — how’s that idea looking right now? Still make sense to you?

Update #1: From Newsweek[2],

The prospect of turmoil in Pakistan sends shivers up the spines of those U.S. officials charged with keeping tabs on foreign nuclear weapons. Pakistan is thought to possess about 100 — the U.S. isn’t sure of the total, and may not know where all of them are. Still, if Pakistan collapses, the U.S. military is primed to enter the country and secure as many of those weapons as it can, according to U.S. officials.

That’s hopeful news, but you have to wonder how many we have the capacity to quickly move in and secure. If it were to end up taking us a few weeks to get it together, we could easily lose track of a number of nukes.