StopDemocrats.com & The Senate Breakdown

StopDemocrats.com & The Senate Breakdown: Tomorrow night I’m going to watching Fox News with the sound off and listening to election coverage via an internet feed at Stopdemocrats.com. As an added bonus, they’re supposed to be doing a radio spot for RWN in return for my promotion of their election coverage. Tune in to Stopdemocrats.com and check out the coverage.

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Let me give you an idea of what to expect tomorrow night. The GOP will probably pick-up a few seats in the House and lose some governorships. But, the real action is going to be in Senate where it’s a virtual dead-heat. Currently, it’s 50-49-1 with a lot of tight races that could change the balance of power in the Senate. The polls are flying hot and heavy with sometimes contradictory results. Here’s the current breakdown…

Dem Controlled Seats

Georgia: Chambliss (R) Vs. Cleland (D) — Most polls I’ve seen give the incumbent Cleland a lead of between 3-5 points with very few voters undecided. A last minute stop by GWB still gives Chambliss hope, but Cleland has the edge. ***Update***: New polling data puts this race neck and neck and I received an email from an acquiantance on the Chambliss campaign who told me that he thinks they’re going to pull it off. Race changed to a toss-up.

Louisiana: Cooksey (R) & Terrell (R) Vs. Landrieu (D) — This is a weird situation. Three Republicans are splitting the vote right now while Landrieu is sitting at 45%. Landrieu will definitely win, but if she doesn’t get 50% of the vote there will be a December run-off that control of the Senate may hinge on. However, Landrieu looks to have an excellent shot of getting 50% and retaining the Democratic seat. edge to Landrieu.

Minnesota: Coleman (R) Vs. Mondale (D) — The Dems bungled this one with grotesque Wellstone memorial rally. The sickening campaigning at the memorial service will allow Coleman to turn it loose for the last few days and a Bush visit will help. This is a seat that currently belongs to the Dems and it is a toss-up. Ventura has pledged to appoint an independent to fill out Wellstone’s term in the lame duck session so even if Mondale wins, it’s possible that Ventura’s appointee could vote with the Republicans and give them control of the Senate. If Mondale loses, expect a court challenge over the absentee ballots.

Missouri: Talent (R) Vs. Carnahan (D) — Talent has pulled out to a small 4-5 point in the last two weeks but some polls show Carnahan closing. Talent has the edge in the race for this Democrat controlled seat. If Talent wins and there are no Dem dirty tricks after the election to keep him from being immediately confirmed (ha-ha), the Republicans would take control of the Senate for the lame duck session because Talent would IMMEDIATELY replace Carnahan.

South Dakota: Thune (R) Vs Johnson (D) — This one has been a dogfight for months with neither candidate able to pull away. This state which is currently controlled by the Dems is a toss-up

GOP Controlled Seats

Arkansas: Hutchinson (R) Vs. Pryor (D) — Pryor currently has at least a 5 point lead on incumbent Tim Hutchinson. Hutchinson could still pull it out but he is playing catch-up. The edge goes to Pryor.

Colorado: Allard (R) Vs. Strickland (D) — This race is still a toss-up with the last 3 polls I’ve seen showing Allard ahead, behind, and tied with Strickland.

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) Vs. Shaheen (D) — Latest poll shows Sununu up by two, but reports out of Colorado say Shaheen has the momentum in this race for a Republican held seat. This one is a toss-up.

If I absolutely HAD to make picks for all these races, even the ones that are too close to call, I’d guess that…

Coleman, Talent, and Thune pick up seats for the GOP & Pryor, Strickland, and Shaheen pick up seats for the Dems leaving the Senate at 50-49-1 (assuming Lincoln Chafee doesn’t switch to the Dems). However, do keep in mind that calling these races is very hard to predict and conventional wisdom could be off…

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Here is something I found on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire that you might find interesting.

USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll results & Zogby came up with some contradictory poll numbers in some of the races they covered. Take a look at these results…

USA Today/CNN/Gallup

Colorado: Allard 47, Strickland 45
Missouri: Talent 48, Carnahan 44
South Dakota: Thune 48, Johnson 45

Zogby

Colorado: Strickland 53, Allard 44
Missouri: Carnhan 49, Talent 48
South Dakota: Johnson 52, Thune 47

While I haven’t written him off completely, I have started to question some of Zogby’s numbers lately because he’s such an outspoken advocate for the Palestinians. Anytime a supposedly impartial pollster starts very publicly taking sides on a divisive issue, any issue, I have to wonder if it’ll start to show up in his work. If you buy into Zogby’s numbers, you should be VERY optimistic about the Dems chances tomorrow. But, if a lot of these Democrat candidates that Zogby has polling higher than everyone else crash and burn on election day, I’m going to really start taking Zogby’s polling data with a grain of salt from now on.

***Update***: My best guess before the election is that Coleman will have to win & Allard will have to retain or Chambliss will have to pull off the upset with all other races going as expected for the GOP to take the Senate. Here’s a breakdown of how some people are calling those three races…

Colorado: Allard (R) – Strickland (D) –
Strickland Wins – David Broder, Ronald Brownstein, Lisa Myers, Charlie Cook, Hawkins, Zogby Poll
Allard Wins– Real Clear Politics, USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll

Georgia: Chambliss (R) – Cleland (D)
Cleland Wins – David Broder, Ronald Brownstein, Charlie Cook, Hawkins
Chambliss Wins – Lisa Myers, Real Clear Politics
Even – Zogby Poll

Minnesota: Coleman (R) – Mondale (D)
Coleman Wins – Real Clear Politics, Hawkins
Mondale Wins – David Broder, Ronald Brownstein, Lisa Myers, Charlie Cook, Zogby Poll

Also, Stopdemocrats.com invited me to do a guest spot on tomorrow nights show and I agreed. They told me they’re planning to talk to me between 8 – 9 PM but there’s a possibility it could be pushed back until 11. Make sure to listen in for me tomorrow night.

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