A Conservative Crack-Up? Nah, It’s Just Rocky 3

Over at The Campaign Spot, Jim Geraghty is wondering about a “conservative crack-up.”

One of my readers suggested that, no matter who the Republican nominee is, the 2008 GOP primary will be marked by a tear between social conservatives and fiscal conservatives. Social conservatives have looked at Rudy Giuliani leading the national polls for much of the year, and asked in disbelief to their coalition partners, ‘how can you support that guy?’ Now fiscal conservatives, and perhaps hawks, are looking at Huckabee and asking the same question to social conservatives.

This reader contended that even if some consensus nominee wins, both factions will look at the other with greater suspicion. “Yeah, we’ve been through a lot of fights together since the 1970s, but how can I trust them as allies when they were eager to give the nomination to that guy?”

You want to know what the real problem is for the GOP right now?

It’s that politics in this country tend to be cyclical and at the moment, because Republicans have been in power longer, they’re crabby and complacent, just not as hungry as liberals are.

It’s like Rocky 3, when Rocky starts to enjoy being heavyweight champion a little too much and doesn’t train as hard as he should. Then, he runs up against Clubber Lang, who is determined to be champion, and Rocky gets destroyed.

You want to know what it will take to truly shake conservatives out of their torpor? Probably President Hillary Rodham Clinton slamming through socialized medicine, amnesty, or some massive new tax scheme to pay for global warming.

Then, out of the blue, conservatives will start to focus more on their similarities than their differences. It’s too bad that’s what it’ll probably take to get conservatives back on the same page, but it’s human nature.

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