A Momentum Shift In The House

As regular readers of RWN know, I’ve been pessimistic about the GOP’s chances of holding the House. In fact, last week, I said the GOP would lose between 18-28 seats if the election were held on that day.

However, the wind has finally started to shift back in the GOP’s favor. The Fence bill has been signed. The New Jersey gay marriage ruling helped fire up socially conservative voters. Moreover, in the Senate races, which have been more heavily polled than the House races, we’ve seen definite movement towards the GOP.

Although there hasn’t been as much polling the House, there has been some good news in key races. Tom Reynolds, who was down in two consecutive polls by 15+ points and looked like he was toast, has gone up by 5 points.

Joe Negron, who is replacing Mark Foley, is now going to get signs at the polling place telling people that a Foley vote is a vote for him. That means a seat that was looking like a gimmie for the Democrats is now a toss-up.

Similarly, Shelley-Sekula Gibbs, who is replacing Tom DeLay as a write-in candidate, has been written off by everybody as a sure loser. But, guess what? Gibbs is now running almost dead even with Nick Lampson in a poll that simply identifies her as a “write in candidate.” When they actually tell people her name, she goes up 52% to 35%. Put it all together and you have another “goner” that’s a toss-up at worst and maybe even a seat that’s now leaning Republican.

Moreover, it’s important to remember that a lot of key races haven’t been polled in the last week or two. So, could there have been a lot of Republicans sky rocketing in popularity that just haven’t had a chance to show it at the polls, yet? Absolutely.

So, although we’re still behind and are going to lose a good number of seats no matter what happens, we have the momentum, the money, and a better Get Out The Vote program than the Democrats. So cross your fingers, folks, because we’re not out of the running to hold the House yet.

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