Amnesty Math

Estimates on the number of illegal immigrants in the US generally range between 12-20 million. Are all of those illegal Hispanics? No, but the overwhelming majority of them are.

Now, in the last election, only 30 percent of Hispanics voted for the GOP. Of course, legal Hispanics as a whole would be more assimilated and wealthier than illegals, so chances are, less than 30 percent of illegals would have voted for the GOP in 2006.

Still, let’s use that number as a starting point for illegals. We’ll say that 30 percent of illegals would vote for the GOP if they were citizens and 70 percent would vote for the Democrats. Ok, now we’ll extrapolate those numbers out and we get a net gain of 400k potential votes for the Democrats for every 1 million illegal immigrants that become citizens of the United States.

So, if there are 12-20 million illegal immigrants in the United States and they’re all given amnesty, that would mean that the Democrats would acquire another 4.8 – 8 million new potential voters.

Even if you set everything else aside, that amnesty is rewarding illegals for breaking our laws, that it will encourage more illegal aliens to come here in hopes of getting in on the next amnesty, etc., no Republican should ever support amnesty based on the sheer number of voters it would undoubtedly deliver to the Democrats.

Now, some people might argue that the very act of putting an amnesty in place would turn a lot of Hispanics into Republican voters. But, doesn’t that seem like a pretty illogical theory at this point when Democrats control the House and Republicans in the House and Senate are planning to fight against amnesty? How can anyone believe that if George Bush and the Democratic Party manage to put an amnesty in place over the objections of Republicans in the House and Senate and the GOP base, which will be fighting them tooth and nail, that the result of that will be an enormous groundswell of enthusiasm in the Hispanic community for Republicans? That just doesn’t make any sense.

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