Analysis Of The Democratic Race Post-Indiana/North Carolina

Yesterday, Hillary won a squeaker in Indiana while Obama blew her out in North Carolina.

What does that mean?

It is being spun by Obama’s supporters in the mainstream media as a huge “Game Over” moment, but the truth is that the situation essentially remains unchanged unless Hillary shocks everyone and decides to drop out of the race or a large number of superdelegates use this as an excuse to come out en masse for Obama.

Put another way, Obama’s “egg heads and African-Americans” coalition is still turning out for him, but he’s not making significant inroads with the voters he’ll need to win the election and the Democrats are getting ever more divided. The exit polls tell the tale,

Clinton received the support of 60 percent of white voters in both states, while Obama got 40 percent of the white vote in Indiana and 36 percent in North Carolina. Obama won the overwhelming majority of black voters: 92 percent in Indiana and 91 percent in North Carolina.

…Looking ahead to the general election, CBS News exit polling showed that the majority of voters said that they would not be satisfied if the Democratic candidate they did not support were to become the nominee. Only 35 percent of Clinton voters in Indiana and 34 percent in North Carolina said they would be satisfied with Obama. Forty percent of Obama voters in Indiana and 45 percent in North Carolina would be satisfied if Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee.

So, once again, it’s Hillary’s supporters, not Obama’s, that are more likely to sit at home or vote for McCain in November if their candidate doesn’t get the nod. Moreover, Obama is still losing the white vote by a landslide and since, unlike the black vote, white voters are actually up for grabs in November, that’s a big deal.

Those are very troubling trends for the Democrats indeed, if, as expected, Obama ends up as their nominee.

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