Analyzing The Latest Gallup 2008 Poll
Gallup has a new poll out comparing the Democratic and Republican 2008 candidates on an “acceptable/not acceptable” basis. You can take a look at the numbers here.
A few things of note from the poll:
— First place among Republicans is Rudi, with 73% acceptable rating and only 23% calling him unacceptable. Those are nice numbers that have a lot to do with his charisma, leadership, and the well deserved tough guy rep he gained by cleaning up New York. But, can an adulterer who supports gay marriage, gun control, and abortion come out on top in a Republican primary? It seems highly unlikely.
— Condi came in 2nd place with a 68 percent acceptable, 29% not acceptable rating. It’s funny: the Democrats will tell you that Republicans are racists, yet a black woman who’s probably not even going to run is the 2nd most preferred candidate of Republicans. Compare that to how Al Sharpton did in the 2004 Democratic primaries.
— McCain was in 3rd, but his numbers weren’t so hot. 55% acceptable and 41% unacceptable. Wait until the blogosphere and talk radio spend a few months beating him up the way that the lefties are pounding Joe Lieberman now and those numbers will look even worse.
— Newt finished at 45% acceptable and 50% unacceptable. Unfortunately, he just has too much baggage to be a serious contender despite the fact that he’s probably the best man for the job.
— Jeb Bush did slightly worse than Newt. 44% acceptable. 52% unacceptable. I think people have had enough members of the Bush clan in the White House for a while.
— Cheney, who has said he isn’t running and has heart troubles, was at 34% acceptable and 61% unacceptable. Not surprising given the situation.
As far as the other Republican candidates go, if you look at how the numbers broke out, you can tell that a lot of people chose “not acceptable” for candidates they didn’t know a lot about instead of “no opinion”. At this early point in the race, before those candidates have had a chance to introduce themselves to the voters, that doesn’t mean much except that they need to try to up their name recognition.
On the Democratic side, surprise, surprise, John Edwards beat Hillary!
Edwards was at 71% acceptable and 25% unacceptable while Hill was at 69% acceptable and 29% unacceptable. Al Gore was just a touch behind both of them at 68% acceptable and 31% unacceptable.
Then there was Kerry at 59% acceptable and 40% unacceptable. So, is it fair to call John Kerry a 2nd tier candidate yet? Maybe not. The gap between Kerry and the three candidates on top is smaller than between Kerry and the other candidates.
Howard Dean is at 40% acceptable and 54% unacceptable and Wesley Clark is at 42% acceptable and 49% unacceptable. You could put Tom Daschle, who’s at 35% acceptable and 50% unacceptable into this category.
The other candidates don’t have the name recognition to really get an accurate reading of their popularity. It’s too bad they left out Barrack Obama. It would have been interesting to see what his numbers were.
So, what can we learn from this poll? Condi could be a legit contender if she ran, McCain is strongly disliked, Allen needs to get his name recognition up a lot, Edwards and Gore look to be about as popular as Hillary, Kerry isn’t one of the top 3 candidates right now, and a lot of Democrats really don’t seem to like Howard Dean a lot.
The primaries are still looking like they’re going to be a lot of fun!