April GOP Straw Polls Results

by John Hawkins | May 3, 2007 9:34 am

The online GOP Straw Polls[1] had more than 12,000 votes cast this month from all around the blogosphere.

Here’s how the candidate acceptability numbers (the percentage of people who say the candidate is acceptable, minus the number who say the candidate is unacceptable) broke out.

First of all, here are the Right Wing News numbers,

Fred Thompson: +68.7%
Duncan Hunter: +48.9%
Newt Gingrich: +30.3%
Mitt Romney: +25.3%
Tom Tancredo: +23.2
Rudy Giuliani: 12.1%
Mike Huckabee: -8.2%
Sam Brownback: -12.7%
Tommy Thompson: -23.2%
James Gilmore: -25%
John McCain: -49%
George Pataki: -61.8%

Next, here are the numbers for the entire blogosphere with how much each candidate has gone up or down since last month in parentheses…

Fred Thompson: +65.7% (+17.4%)
Mitt Romney: +35.8% (+10.6%)
Rudy Giuliani: +30.7% (+17.5%)
Newt Gingrich: +22% (-5.6%)
Duncan Hunter: +13.8% (+4.0%)
Tom Tancredo: -4.8% (-3.4%)
Mike Huckabee: -7.5% (+2.2%)
Sam Brownback: -16.9% (-5.5%)
Tommy Thompson: -24% (-0.2)
John McCain: -28.1% (+19.2%)
James Gilmore: -30.7% (-0.9%)
George Pataki: -63.3% (-5.3%)

Thompson has been getting hyped as the “great conservative hope” and in all fairness, he has been writing some really good columns, so his bounce makes sense.

Romney won the “money primary” since the last poll and that probably convinced some people he has a good shot of winning, which explains his movement.

McCain’s little “bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” ditty and his steadfast defense of the war while the Democrats were trying to surrender probably explains his bounce with hawkish conservative primary votes.

But, Rudy? I’m not sure exactly why he took off.

Newt? His drop seems small, but in Feb, he was in first place with a +42.2% acceptability rating. Does that mean Fred has taken a bite out of him? Are people just starting to become convinced he isn’t running? Probably a little bit of both, but however you slice it, his momentum has dramatically slowed online.

Then there’s Duncan Hunter, the only 2nd tier candidate with positive numbers. For obvious reason, I’m going to skip any further analysis of that one.

On the negative side of the field, Tanc’s numbers have to be a real disappointment because he has a lot of online fans, myself included. I think a lot of people are just saying, “He’s a great Congressman, but I am not so sure he’d make a great President or that he would be a viable candidate.”

As to the rest, excluding John McCain, who has already been discussed, I have to say that I am little surprised Brownback and Huckabee haven’t done better. Huckabee did really well in some recent South Carolina straw polls, which shows that he at least knows how to appeal to conservatives when he gets in front of them. Huckabee’s problem may just be that he’s not doing much online. Does Huckabee even have someone handling blogs for him?

Brownback does have someone handling blogs for him, but he’s pro-immigration, anti-victory in Iraq, and I haven’t seen him doing a lot of outreach. It may just be that the campaign doesn’t put enough focus on the online element of the campaign to make a difference. Even if you have a blog sherpa, there’s not much he can do if you don’t give him some of the candidate’s time for his projects.

With Gilmore, Pataki, and Tommy Thompson — to be honest, I’m not sure they’re making an effort to get their message out online, which is understandable with Pataki, because I don’t think he’s running. But, Gilmore and Tommy Thompson? They should be making a major push online.

I consult for the Duncan Hunter campaign[2] through TCV Media[3].