Bush Vs Kerry: Final Analysis & Predictions

01 Nov, 2004 by John Hawkins

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States In Play

State: Florida
Electoral Votes: 27
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Bush
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +2
Latest RCP poll spread: Bush 1.9
October Polling: Bush wins 14. Kerry wins 11. 3 ties.
My Analysis: Slight Edge for Bush (60/40).

State: Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +3
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry +2.5
October Polling: Kerry wins 19. Bush wins 2. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)

State: Ohio
Electoral Votes: 20
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Bush
Last Poll: Zogby Bush +5
Latest RCP poll spread: Tie
October Polling: Kerry wins 13. Bush wins 11. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50).

State: Michigan
Electoral Votes: 17
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +1
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry +2.4
October Polling: Kerry 13 wins. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)

State: Minnesota
Electoral Votes: 10
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +3
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry + 1.2
October Polling: Kerry wins 8. Bush wins 5.
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50).

State: Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +8
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry +2
October Polling: Bush wins 8. Kerry wins 7. 2 ties.
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50).

State: Iowa
Electoral Votes: 7
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +1
Latest RCP poll spread: Bush +1.1
October Polling: Bush wins 11. Kerry wins 5. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Leaning towards Bush (75/25).

State: New Mexico
Electoral Votes: 5
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Arg Kerry +1
Latest RCP poll spread: Bush +3.8
October Polling: Bush wins 6. Kerry wins 4.
My Analysis: Leaning towards Bush (75/25).

State: Hawaii
Electoral Votes: 4
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: SMS Research Bush +1
Latest RCP poll spread: Bush +0.9
October Polling: Bush wins 2. Kerry wins 0.
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)

State: New Hampshire
Electoral Votes: 4
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Bush
Last Poll: Arg Tie
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry +2.0
October Polling: Kerry wins 8. Bush wins 2. 2 ties.
My Analysis: Leaning towards Kerry (75/25).

Final Breakdown

The election has tightened up in the last week or so. In fact, only 7 states truly appear to be in play. Kerry is threatening in Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire while Bush is putting the pressure on Kerry in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.

Because of that, I’d say that Kerry is probably going to need to take Florida and New Hampshire if he’s going to win.

That’s because I believe Bush is going to take New Mexico and Iowa which would be enough to get him to 270 if Kerry took Ohio.

If Kerry managed to capture Ohio and New Hampshire or even just Florida, Bush would need New Mexico, Iowa, and either Wisconsin or Minnesota to trump him. Since I think both Wisconsin and Minnesota are toss-ups, the odds are in Bush’s favor if that were the scenario that occurred.

However, if Kerry took Florida and New Hampshire, the odds shift in Kerry’s favor and of course, if Kerry takes Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire, Bush would have to win at least Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa, PLUS, he’d have to pull off a major surprise Pennsylvania or Michigan. That’s highly unlikely.

That being said, everything I’m hearing seems to indicate that the undecideds are either breaking even or for Bush. Furthermore, the entire last week has revolved around explosives in Iraq and Osama Bin Laden, which means that security issues have been spotlighted. Since Bush has a large lead on Kerry in security related issues, that works in W’s favor.

Taking all that into consideration, here are my final predictions for the election….

My Popular Vote Prediction

Bush 51% vs. Kerry 48%

Electoral College Prediction #1

Bush 296 Vs. Kerry 242 (Kerry takes NH, Bush takes IA, NM, & either MN or WI)

Secondary Electoral College Prediction

Bush 276 Vs. Kerry 262 (Kerry takes Oh & NH, Bush takes IA, NM, & either MN or WI)

Odds Prediction

75% chance of Bush winning — 25% chance of Kerry winning.