Comparing RWN’s Pre-Election Projections To The Actual Results

I estimated the GOP would lose 5 seats in the Senate and 22-29 in the House. Unfortunately, it looks like I was a touch too optimistic. Here’s a short comparison of my initial analysis to the actual results:

State: Michigan
Competitors: Debbie Stabenow (D) vs. Mike Bouchard (R)
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Retention.
Result: Stabenow 57% vs. Bouchard 41%

State: Minnesota
Competitors: Mark Kennedy (R) vs, Amy Klobuchar (D)
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Retention.
Result: Klobuchar 58% vs. Kennedy 38%

State: New Jersey
Competitors: Robert Menendez (D) vs. Tom Kean (R)
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Retention.
Result: Menendez 53% vs. Kean 45%

State: Ohio
Competitors: Mike DeWine (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Pick-up.
Result: Brown 56% vs. DeWine 44%

State: Pennsylvania
Competitors: Rick Santorum (R) vs. Bob Casey
My Analysis: 90/10: — Likely Democrat Pick-Up.
Result: Casey 59% vs. Santorum 41%

State: Tennessee
Competitors: Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Republican Retention.
Result: Corker 51% vs. Ford 48%

State: Connecticut
Competitors: Joe Lieberman (I) vs. Ned Lamont
My Analysis: 90/10 — Lieberman retains and unfortunately, votes for Democratic control of Congress.
Result: Lieberman 50% vs. Lamont 40%

State: Washington
Competitors: Maria Cantwell (D) vs. Mike McGavick (R)
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Retention.
Result: Cantwell 58% vs. McGavick 39%

State: Maryland
Competitors: Michael Steele (R) vs. Ben Cardin (D)
My Analysis: 75/25 — Leaning Democratic Retention.
Result: Cardin 54% vs. Steele 44%

State: Missouri
Competitors: Jim Talent (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D)
My Analysis: 50/50 — Toss-up.
Result: McCaskill 50% vs. Talent 47%

State: Montana
Competitors: Conrad Burns (R) vs. Jon Tester (D)
My Analysis: 50/50 — Toss-up.
Result: Tester 49% vs. Burns 48%

State: Rhode Island
Seat Currently Held By: Lincoln Chafee (R)
Competitors: Lincoln Chafee (R) vs. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Last Poll: Mason Dixon: Chafee + 1
Latest RCP poll spread: Whitehouse +7.8
October Polling: Whitehouse wins 8, Chafee wins 1
My Analysis: 50/50 — Toss-up.
Result: Whitehouse 53% vs. Chafee 47%

State: Virginia
Competitors: George Allen (R) vs. James Webb (D)
My Analysis: 50/50 — Toss-up.
Result: Webb 50% vs. Allen 49%

Although I did say that I thought the Dems had a small edge in all the toss-up races, I thought the GOP had a good shot to pull out a couple of them — and who knows, maybe they will. There will be a recount in Virginia and Tester is up on Burns by less than 2000 votes with 1% of the vote left to be counted.

In the House, which was harder to call because of the scarcity of polling data, here was how I saw it playing out:

Republican Seats Leaning Democratic Takeover

AZ-08: Randy Graf (R.) vs. Gabrielle Giffords (D.) (Graf lost)
CT-05: Rep. Nancy Johnson (R.) vs. Chris Murphy (D.) (Johnson lost)
CO-7: Rick O’Donnell (R.) vs. Ed Perlmutter (D.) (O’Donnell lost)
FL-13: Vern Buchanan (R.) vs. Christine Jennings (D.) (Buchanan won)
FL-16: Joe Negron (R.) vs. Tim Mahoney (D.) (Negron lost)
FL-22: Rep. Clay Shaw (R.) vs. Ron Klein (D.) (Shaw lost)
IA-01: Mike Whalen (R.) vs. Bruce Braley (D.) (Whalen lost)
IN-2: Rep. Chris Chocola (R.) vs. Joe Donnelly (D.) (Chocola lost)
IN-8: Rep. John Hostettler (R.) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D.) (Hostettler lost)
NC-11: Rep. Charles Taylor (R.) vs. Heath Shuler (D.) (Taylor lost)
NY-20: Rep. John Sweeney (R.) vs. Kirsten Gillibrand (D.) (Sweeney lost)
NY-29: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R.) vs. Eric Massa (D.) (Kuhl won)
OH-01: Rep. Steve Chabot (R.) vs. John Cranley (D.) (Chabot won)
OH-18: Joy Padgett (R.) vs. Zack Space (D.) (Padgett lost)
PA-6: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R.) vs. Lois Murphy (D.) (Gerlach won)
PA-7: Rep. Curt Weldon (R.) vs. Joe Sestak (D.) (Weldon lost)
PA-10: Rep. Don Sherwood (R.) vs. Chris Carney (D.) (Sherwood lost)

Republican-Held Seats That Are Toss-Ups

AZ-05: Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R.) vs. Harry Mitchell (D.) (Hayworth lost)
CA-11: Rep. Richard Pombo (R.) vs. Jerry McNerney (D.) (Pombo lost)
CT-2: Rep. Rob Simmons (R.) vs. Joe Courtney (D.) (Still 50/50, no winner declared)
CT-4: Rep. Chris Shays (R.) vs. Diane Farrell (D.) (Shays won)
CO-04: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R.) vs. Angie Paccione (D.) (Musgrave won)
ID-01: Bill Sali (R) vs. Larry Grant (D) (Sali won)
IL-6: Peter Roskam (R.) vs. Tammy Duckworth (D.) (Roskam won)
IN-9: Rep. Mike Sodrel (R.) vs. Barron Hill (D.) (Sodrel lost)
KY-03: Rep. Anne Northup (R.) vs. John Yarmuth (D.) (Northup lost)
KY-04: Rep. Geoff Davis (R.) vs. Ken Lucas (D.) (Davis won)
NH-02: Rep. Charlie Bass (R.) vs. Paul Hodes (D.) (Bass lost)
NM-1: Rep. Heather Wilson (R.) vs. Patricia Madrid (D.) (Still 50/50, no winner declared)
NY-24: Ray Meier (R.) vs. Michael Arcuri (D.) (Meier lost)
NY-25: Rep. James Walsh (R.) vs. Dan Maffei (D.) (Walsh won)
OH-15: Rep. Deborah Pryce (R.) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D.) (Pryce won)
PA-08: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R.) vs. Patrick Murphy (D.) (Still 50/50, no winner declared)
TX-22: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R.) vs. Nick Lampson (D.) (Sekula Gibbs lost)
VA-02: Rep. Thelma Drake (R.) vs. Phil Kellam (D.) (Drake won)
WI-08: John Gard (R.) vs. Steve Kagen (D.) (Gard lost)

Key Competitive Seats Leaning Toward Republican Retention

AZ-01: Rep. Rick Renzi (R.) vs. Ellen Simon (D.) (Renzi won)
CA-04: Rep. John Doolittle (R.) vs. Charlie Brown (D.) (doolittle won)
CA-50: Rep. Brian Bilbray (R.) vs. Francine Busby (D.) (Bilbray won)
CO-5: Doug Lamborn (R.) vs. Jay Fawcett (D.) (Lamborn won)
MN-01: Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R.) vs. Tim Walz (D.) (Gutknecht lost)
MN-06: Michele Bachmann (R.) vs. Patty Wetterling (D.) (Bachman won)
NJ-07: Rep. Mike Ferguson (R.) vs. Linda Stender (D.) Ferguson won
NY-26: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R.) vs. Jack Davis (D.) (Reynolds won)
NV-02: Dean Heller (R.) vs. Jill Derby (D.) (Heller won)
NV-03: Rep. Jon Porter (R.) vs. Tessa Hafen (D.) (Porter won)
OH-02: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R.) vs. Victoria Wulsin (D.) (Schmidt won)
WA-08: Rep. Dave Reichert (R.) vs. Darcy Burner (D.) (Reichert won)
WY-AL: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R.) vs. Gary Trauner (D.) (Still 50/50, no winner declared)

Not Listed:

KS-02: Ryun (R) lost to Borda (D)
PA-04: Hart (R) lost to Altmire (D)
NH-01: Jeb Bradley (R) lost to Shea-Porter (D)

My projection of 22-29 seats lost appears to have been very close, but just a tad too optimistic.

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