Could Obama Win The Democratic Primary? Maybe. Could He Win The General Election? It Seems Very Unlikely.
From Kos at the Daily Kos:
“Standard caveats aside (it’s early, we don’t have a set field, blah blah blah), it’s hard to see how Barack Obama loses the nomination barring scandal or the mother-of-all gaffes.
I’ve been working up a few scenarios given the primary calendar (which isn’t set in stone, with states like California looking to move up), and really, it would be Obama’s race to lose.
….There’s one thing that could put a skid on Obama’s fast rise — an Al Gore entrance into the race. Other than that, I don’t see a way anyone stops him.
Again, we don’t know what the final field will look like, so things can dramatically change. But an entrance into the race would make Obama the prohibitive favorite. If politics is about seizing opportunities, it would seem a no-brainer for him to enter the race now.
What’s more, Obama would then be tough to beat in the general. He would very well be the favorite in that race, even against a McCain, and would probably be a net positive for Democrats running down the ballot. So it wouldn’t be a terrible thing by any means.”
Is Kos right about Obama being unstoppable in the Democratic primaries? I don’t know. But, I can tell you that he would be a terrible Democratic candidate in the general election.
Barack Hussein Obama jr. is charismatic and he has sort of a “moderate tone,” similar to the one that Joe Lieberman has, that people tend to like. So, he has that going for him.
But, on the other hand, he has only been in the Senate for two years and hasn’t accomplished anything of note yet. Moreover, he has an extremely liberal voting record and he can be plugged right into the same old “Northern liberal” template that Mike Dukakis, Walter Mondale, and John Kerry were in.
Furthermore, addressing the elephant in the room, black voters already come in for the Democrats — so Obama adds nothing there. Moreover, research has shown that, “In House races, white Democrats are 38 percentage points less likely to vote Democratic if their candidate is black.” (Incidentally, for Republicans, the number is 25%). Would the numbers be all that different for the presidency? The number of racist Democrats crossing the line might drop a bit because of the importance of the presidency to each party, so you might see a 25% loss of white Democrats for Obama instead of 38%, but that still would turn into an extra few points at the ballot box in every state for the Republican candidate.
Put the liberalism, his inexperience, and the racist Democrats all together and I think Barack Hussein Obama jr. would have an extremely difficult time becoming President unless the Republican candidate would completely melt down and essentially hand it to him on a silver platter.
PS #1: I still want to see him run for the nomination though and not just because he won’t win the general. The Democrats always act as if disagreeing with a black man is caused by some sort of racist impulse. That’s why, for the most part, they ignored anti-semitic crank Al Sharpton during the last Democratic presidential primary. However, Obama would be too much of a “rock stah” to ignore, so they’d have to beat him up and all the charges and counter charges of racism among Democrats would be just too delicious to miss.
PS #2: There will be a black President one day, but he’ll be a Republican. That’s because white Republicans are more willing to vote for a black candidate than Democrats and because a lot of black conservatives who are today voting for the Democrats just because it’s expected of them will cross the lines and vote for a conservative, black Republican.
PS #3: The first black Republican President will not, however, be Condi Rice. Setting aside her not particularly impressive performance as Secretary of State of late, here’s why.
Update #1: From the comments section:
“Barack Hussein Obama Jr.”
“I’ve always been a fan of your blog, despite being a Democrat. But if his middle name were anything other than Hussein, would you be including it in your posts? I think we can safely assume no, since you follow common practice of not including middle names.
I can only assume, then, that you’re including it because it’s Hussein, which of course reminds all of us of Saddam Hussein, who I’m sure we all agree was a dispicable dictator. If I am wrong about your motivation, please let me know, but if I’m write, don’t you think that making political hay out of what a candidate’s *name* is is rather below the belt?” — FairMindedLefty
Actually, after the 2006 election in which George Allen was called George Felix Allen jr. endlessly by liberals, the only reason I included Obama’s middle name was to expose the hypocrisy of liberals when they complained about the “Hussein” being in there.