GOP Straw Poll Analysis

The GOP Straw Polls are my favorite online polls because of the cross tabs, the wide cross section of conservative blogs that participate, and because they allow people to pick their top choices and their “acceptable choices.”

Here’s a breakdown of the results of the latest poll,

First Choice

Gilmore (0.1%)
Brownback (1%)
McCain (1.4%)
Tancredo (4.2%)
Huckabee (5%)
Gingrich (6.5%)
Hunter (7.2%)
(none) (12.7%)
Giuliani (14.3%)
Romney (19%)
F. Thompson (28.7%)

Candidate Acceptability

McCain: -61%
Brownback: -39.1%
Tancredo: -11.9%
Giuliani: +3.3%
Gingrich: +7.4%
Huckabee: +10.9%
Hunter: +11.5%
Romney: +22.9%
F. Thompson: +31.3%

Breaking the numbers down from top to bottom by candidate acceptability

Fred Thompson: Unsurprisingly, “The Fred” is still at the top of the heap and he still has the most grassroots support.

Mitt Romney: Mitt is generally considered to be the 2nd most conservative member of the top tier or at least the 2nd most willing to pander to conservatives. So, it’s not a big surprise he holds the runner-up spot.

Duncan Hunter: My former employer has an agenda that conservatives love and if he was a top tier candidate, it’s not unconceivable that he would be coming in ahead of Fred in polls like this one. However, as of yet, his online support isn’t translating into real world polls.

Mike Huckabee: Huckabee is a charismatic moderate who has managed to get just enough traction to move himself between the two tiers. He’s not quite doing well enough to be in the first tier, but he’s doing better than any of the other 2nd tier contenders. You have to figure that he’s drawing some support from people who figure that if we’re going to have a not-particularly conservative candidate, better a charismatic governor without a lot of baggage than the other top tier candidates.

Newt Gingrich: The bloom is off the rose for Newt in the blogosphere and a lot of his support has drifted over to Hunter and Thompson. It’s not that conservatives don’t like Newt, it’s just that he has a lot of baggage and that few people actually expect him to run at this point.

Rudy Giuliani: Net savvy blog readers are very aware of Rudy’s moderate stances and his baggage. That could end up contributing to a “Howard Dean effect” for Rudy in the end. You know, people seem to like him, he looks strong, but the primary voters get cold feet when it’s time to close the deal.

Tom Tancredo: The Tanc seems to be generally well liked — just not as a candidate for President.

Sam Brownback: A very earnest, socially conservative fellow, but it’s not quite clear why he’s still running.

John McCain: The Rightroots doesn’t like McCain, has never liked McCain, and never will like McCain.

James Gilmore: Since he has dropped out, I assume his inclusion was an error.

Ron Paul: Happily, he wasn’t included, so his army of flying monkeys, trolls, and assorted truthers only showed up to spam the poll in small numbers instead of wrecking the whole thing as per usual.

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