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How will the health care “reform” bill affect the Democrats’ majorities?
Written By : TrogloPundit

Megan McArdle thinks it’s really, really bad for them:

Democrats are on a political suicide mission; I’m not a particularly accurate prognosticator, but I think this makes it very likely that in 2010 they will (lose) several seats in the Senate–enough to make it damn hard to pass any more of their signature legislation–and will lose the house outright. In the case of the House, you can attribute it to the fact that the leadership has safe seats. But three out of four of the Democrats on the podium today are in serious danger of losing their seats.

At the risk of seeming to “correct” the world’s tallest female econoblogger about economics: we’ve got to take the marginal rate of return into account.

Is that the right phrase? The marginal rate of return? Or should I say: we have to compare opportunity costs? See, this is why I shouldn’t argue economics with her. And I know I shouldn’t.

But: it’s highly likely that the Democrats will lose seats next year whether they pass the health care “reform” bill or not. Historically, the party in the White House does in the mid-term election. Unless the economy improves significantly or some world event creates a “rally around the president” effect…

So the question is: will passing the health care “reform” bill cost them more seats than they would have lost otherwise? Will it cost them a majority that they wouldn’t have lost otherwise?

If not, then damn the torpedoes.*

Another thought – just occurred to me – that whole “what’s going to happen between now and November” thing might explain why they’re straining so hard to pass this now. The general rule of thumb is: if you’re going to do something unpopular, do it early. That gives the electorate time to forget about it before they have to vote again – it gives you time to do a few more popular things to help them forget.

I’m not sure when the health care “reform” bill will start taking effect – most importantly, when will the new taxes and/or other costs start? If not until 2011, then this might not be the “suicide mission” Megan thinks.

* I know, that metaphor doesn’t really work here. The Senate is moving less like a determined warship, more like a pimply-faced teenager with a learner’s permit driving a manual transmission for the first time.

And one more thing: Republicans will do their best to tag the Democrats with their health care “reform” bill in 2010 whether or not they actually pass it. So there, too, we have to consider whether passing it will have a greater marginal effect on their majorities. I’m not so sure it will.

(I’m picking this fight here because my fight card is already full over at The TrogloPundit.)

0
  • http://troglopundit.wordpress.com/2009/12/20/the-senate-is-moving-less-like-a-determined-warship-more-like-a-pimply-faced-teenager-with-a-learning-permit-driving-a-manual-transmission-for-the-first-ti “The Senate is moving less like a determined warship, more like a pimply-faced teenager with a learning permit driving a manual transmission for the first time.” « The TrogloPundit

    [...] a manual transmission for the first time.” That, and other brilliant observations, over at Right Wing News, where I make the very, very wise move of arguing economics with Megan [...]

  • http://networdblog.blogspot.com/ Christopher_Taylor

    I expect the Democrats to have their minority reduced, but they’ll still be in charge after November.

  • Dave C

    You raise a very good question. My take is that while w/o the health care takeover, many would vote against dems, by hiding the bill up u til the vote and passing it with a large majority against it, dems will see a virtual insurrection. Before this session I rarely gave $$ to a party much less a candidate. In 2010 I’ll be sending money to non incumbent candidates across the country to unseat dems. After 2010, Obama will be a lame duck and unelectable in 2012. Hillary will beat him in the primary but wi only have a 50/50 shot at winning. Progressives don’t seem to realize they make up only 20% of the electorate. This fight really isn’t about health care, it’s about big government versus individual liberty. I happen to think liberty will win in the end.

  • http://networdblog.blogspot.com/ Christopher_Taylor

    Typically the party in power doesn’t run anyone against their sitting president. In fact I can’t remember the last time it happened; I don’t think even Carter had opposition in 1980. So I don’t see President Obama losing in a primary.

    And if the GOP runs some loser like McCain against him, he could win again.

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  • Toastrider

    Looks like it’s time to improve the filters again, John!

  • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

    What we should consider is that this Obamacare is a vehicle to get more conservative republicans past the primaries and get less rinos. We have to hold every candidate to a pledge to try and undo or at least significantly change Obamacare.

  • tblrk2006

    We have to hold every candidate to a pledge to try and undo or at least significantly change Obamacare.
    Posted by kyle8
    2009-12-21 07:34:47

    I think it will be under constitutional review in the SCOTUS from the get go. Lets just hope it begins that way. Otherwise it will be “too big to fail” from the get go.

  • TheBaud

    I think it will be under constitutional review in the SCOTUS from the get go.
    Posted by tblrk2006 2009-12-21 10:18:44

    Unless the idiots on SCOTUS decide that legal precedence of other nations trumps American law or the Constitution.

  • tblrk2006

    Unless the idiots on SCOTUS decide that legal precedence of other nations trumps American law or the Constitution.
    Posted by TheBaud
    2009-12-21 10:24:29

    That is 100% true. I never said WHOS constitution.

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