JoeMentum? How About Some JoeMath?

A Breakdown Of CT. voters according to the 2006 Almanac of American Politics:

43% Independent
34.2% Democratic
22.9% Republicans

If Joe Lieberman gets 60% of the Independent vote, which seems entirely plausible given Joe’s popularity with them and the fact that he’ll be running as an independent, that’s 25.8% of the electorate for him and 17.2% of the electorate for Lamont.

If Lieberman gets 75% of the Republican vote, which seems entirely plausible given that Joe is fairly well liked among Republicans and Lamont is very liberal, that’s another 17.2% of the electorate for Joe, which brings him up to 43% of the electorate. Let’s assume the rest goes to Libertarians, third party candidates, Schlesinger (if he stays in), etc. Now, we’re up to 43% of the electorate for Joe and 17.2% for Lamont.

If Joe Lieberman can get 24% of the Democratic Vote, which seems entirely plausible given that he got 48% in the primary and only 1 in 5 Lieberman supporters thought he shouldn’t pursue an independent run, that would give Joe another 8.2% of the electorate while Lamont would capture another 26.0% of the electorate.

Final tally? Lieberman 51.2% and 43.2% for Lamont. Are those plausible numbers? You bet. Will it work out that way? Well, that’s why we have elections, instead of just relying on number crunching. But, from where I’m sitting, Lieberman is still in the catbird’s seat for the general election.

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