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Paul Krugman: World War II was a miracle!
Written By : TrogloPundit

Thank God for the Nazis, says New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, for saving FDR from his own timid, cowardly, tight-fisted economic policies!

The president in question is Franklin Delano Roosevelt; the year is 1938. Within a few years, of course, the Great Depression was over. But it’s both instructive and discouraging to look at the state of America circa 1938 — instructive because the nature of the recovery that followed refutes the arguments dominating today’s public debate, discouraging because it’s hard to see anything like the miracle of the 1940s happening again.

I’m sure that, if asked, Krugman would express dismay at the millions of dead. Still, it was a miracle!

I’ll compress Krugman’s argument: the Great Depression hit. By 1938, FDR had done next to nothing – nowhere near enough – to revive the economy. Also by 1938 (like today). FDR’s whole lotta nothin’ (like President Obama’s whole lotta nothin’) had turned the public entirely against government overspending.

Once more: having done nothing, the President’s policies turned the public against the government doing more.

Logic, Krugman-style.

He continues:

Then came the war.

From an economic point of view World War II was, above all, a burst of deficit-financed government spending, on a scale that would never have been approved otherwise. Over the course of the war the federal government borrowed an amount equal to roughly twice the value of G.D.P. in 1940 — the equivalent of roughly $30 trillion today.

Had anyone proposed spending even a fraction that much before the war, people would have said the same things they’re saying today. They would have warned about crushing debt and runaway inflation. They would also have said, rightly, that the Depression was in large part caused by excess debt — and then have declared that it was impossible to fix this problem by issuing even more debt.

But guess what? Deficit spending created an economic boom — and the boom laid the foundation for long-run prosperity.

No: the war created a demand for manpower so great that, soon enough, domestic industry was reduced to recruiting women to run its factories.

Women! In the workplace!

It’s true: the war was financed with deficit spending. But that spending paid wages; it paid for materiel, which in turn created wages for workers to create that materiel. What was unemployment during WWII? Low, I’m betting. Five straight years of near-full employment, and the economy revives. Go figure.

Is Krugman suggesting that FDR – and Obama – should have made up enough jobs to fully employ nearly every able-bodied American for five full years? Just made them up?

Sure, the government created millions of jobs during WWII…because of the war. The war was a singularly unifying national experience. Everyone understood what we were doing and why. Everyone understood why we were sacrificing. There was purpose in it, beyond politicians in Washington D.C. handing out re-election pork.

Krugman thinks Americans don’t know the difference? He doesn’t know the difference?

He writes:

The economic moral is clear: when the economy is deeply depressed, the usual rules don’t apply.

President Obama should simply have created a U.S. Department of New Jobs and started handing out pre-approved applications. And I’m sure that, five years from now, the government would pull it all back. Lay off thousands upon thousands, pay down the massive debts. Because the “threat” would be over by then.

Via Memeorandum. And cross posted at The TrogloPundit, which I don’t usually do, but it’s a slow day and I don’t want to do a lot of blogging.

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  • UFKA_Smithwick

    Something I'm sure he doesn't want to talk about is that the economy didn't really start to boom until the late 40s/early 50s.

    The war covered it up (draft tens of millions of men and the unemployment problem is going to be solved), but didn't fix the economy.

    You know what did? Being the last remaining industrial power.

    Europe was in ruins, as was Japan and the USSR. India and China were still rural backwaters no where near industrializing. And South America and Africa were well, same as ever.

    So that left American industries to compete with Canada and Australia I guess. Any surprise we did so well economically under those conditions? If we were to annihilate all our competitors right now I'm sure that would boost the economy as well.

    • UFKA_Smithwick

      Oh yeah, almost forgot: we also had most of our manpower in tact after the war. We took heavy casualties but ultimately it did not make much of a dent in our labor force unlike many participants.

      And as a side bonus to having the only functioning economy left of any scale we were attractive to the remnants of Europeans educated elite.

  • Darren O'Connor

    Krugman's also forgetting to mention that while we did indeed have massive debt after the war, back then we could afford to service that debt because with most of Europe flattened, about half of the industrial output in the entire world of 1945 was American. People who needed manufactured goods had fewer alternatives to American goods. This huge disparity in Industrial output didn't start to go away until the seventies, and the money flowed into the US in rivers, enabling us to service the massive debt we had run up.

    We have no comparable ability to service the massive debt our government is creating for us today.

  • baoxian

    One point Krugman does have is that the war left the USA with a massive industrial base after the war. Of course, the need to do something with that base is what ultimately gave rise to the ubiquity of consumer credit and Madison Avenue mass marketing (which played a large role in the current crisis).

    Giant government projects can lead to national financial benefit. The Manhattan Project, Apollo Project. Initiatives that led to scientific and industrial breakthroughs that helped everybody.

    But what did Obama and the Democrats give us? A trillion dollars worth of window caulking and road construction. Poor results from boondoggles produced by small and insufficient minds on the left.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jayhoffer Justin Hoffer

    In a way, he's right, though not in the way he intends. As has been said by others, it was the destruction of Europe's industrial base that helped the American economy.

    If America can come back from the brink, this may very well happen again. China is now running into problems and Europe is imploding from its staggering debt with a populous that is too stupid to understand that debt can't increase indefinitely. Potentially, America could again become an industrial leader, but only if Europe collapses again.

    Frankly, if Europe does collapse, I'm just going to laugh, because it is completely and totally their own fault. Israel and America can then steamroll everyone else into the 21st century.

  • abcxyz

    It is good to read the first few comments here. Most people who study the Great Depression do not understand what pulled the US out of it. We were the last nation standing with no destruction on the mainland where majority of our productive capacity was located. A war today is basically a negative feedback loop for the US economy because we have very little of that productive capacity left.

  • http://www.wordaroundthenet.com Christopher Taylor

    Miracle? Yeah, it was a miracle FDR's idiotic economic policies and hard-left ideas didn't destroy the country entirely.

    • UFKA_Smithwick

      I suppose you could attribute it to leftwing policies: if it weren't for Hitlers National Socialists the war would never have started, we wouldn't have had the opportunity to turn all our economic competitors in to smoking ruin (or have our enemies do it for us) and we would never have emerged as the sole economic world power.

      So yes, I suppose leftwing politics did help us out of the depression.

  • billdalasio

    Mr. Krugman, Frédéric Bastiat on the line. He wants his windows fixed.

  • http://norunnyeggs.com steveegg

    Good post and good comments. One thing that everybody overlooked, however, is that consumer demand worldwide was non-existant for the 16 years between the start of the Great Depression and the end of World War II, with the last 4 in the US, the last 6 in Europe and the last 8 in Asia (or so, depending on where one was in relatoin to the expanding Japanese empire) all being throttled by governments as everything was diverted into the war effort. I don't care how well-built things were or are; use them constantly for at least 16 years with no opportunity to replace them and when the opportunity finally arises to replace the goods, they'll be replaced in record numbers.

  • Mr. Derp

    Oh man Baghdad Paul just keeps the hits rolling. The People's Cube is a little heavy handed, but they have ferret face nailed. How one man can have such a grip on math and so little grip on reality is sort of depressing.

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