Poll Of The Day: Where’s That Netroots Nedmentum?
Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, gets 53 percent of likely voters, with 41 percent for Democratic primary winner Ned Lamont and 4 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Update #1: Just to toot my own horn a little here, from Quinnipiac:
“In this latest survey, Lieberman leads 75 – 13 – 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 – 36 – 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 – 35 percent. Two percent are undecided, but 28 percent of those who name a candidate might change their mind before Election Day.”
Now from RWN, on August 10th:
“If Joe Lieberman gets 60% of the Independent vote, which seems entirely plausible given Joe’s popularity with them and the fact that he’ll be running as an independent, that’s 25.8% of the electorate for him and 17.2% of the electorate for Lamont.
If Lieberman gets 75% of the Republican vote, which seems entirely plausible given that Joe is fairly well liked among Republicans and Lamont is very liberal, that’s another 17.2% of the electorate for Joe, which brings him up to 43% of the electorate. Let’s assume the rest goes to Libertarians, third party candidates, Schlesinger (if he stays in), etc. Now, we’re up to 43% of the electorate for Joe and 17.2% for Lamont.
If Joe Lieberman can get 24% of the Democratic Vote, which seems entirely plausible given that he got 48% in the primary and only 1 in 5 Lieberman supporters thought he shouldn’t pursue an independent run, that would give Joe another 8.2% of the electorate while Lamont would capture another 26.0% of the electorate.
Final tally? Lieberman 51.2% and 43.2% for Lamont. Are those plausible numbers? You bet. Will it work out that way? Well, that’s why we have elections, instead of just relying on number crunching. But, from where I’m sitting, Lieberman is still in the catbird’s seat for the general election.”
The Independent and Republican numbers match up extremely well. The only difference, for the moment, is Joe’s Democratic support which will probably continue to drop as big name Democrats campaign for Lamont and pound away at Lieberman. The big problem that the Democrats have is that there is little they can do to influence Republican voters and the harder they work to pull Democrats into the fold, the more they’ll probably turn off independents. Moreover, it seems to me that Lamont, who has been campaigning as the “real Democrat,” in the race is going to have a lot of trouble turning right around and beating a viable Independent candidate like Joe Lieberman, with Independent voters.
That doesn’t mean Joe has this thing sewed up yet, but again, Lamont has a real uphill climb here to try to catch up unless, perhaps, Schlesinger drops out and a more viable Republican candidate gets in. Would the CT. Republicans be dumb enough to run a more prominent candidate without being sure that he could be competitive (And so far, no one like that appears to be on the horizon)? At the moment, it doesn’t look like it — and that’s the right way to go. An Independent Joe Lieberman isn’t as good as putting a Republican into office, but he is certainly still preferable to Ned Lamont.