Predictions For Iowa
As you probably know, after a year plus of campaigning, the first caucus in the nation, in Iowa, occurs today.
Although it’s notoriously difficult to predict who’s going to win and lose in Iowa because of the number of candidates still in the hunt, the tiny percentage of Iowians who actually vote, and because of the unpredictability of the caucuses, here are some predictions about who’s going to win.
First off, let me start off with mine (if I get at least half of these right, I’m going to be feel lucky given how tough this is to predict).
1) Mike Huckabee
2) Mitt Romney
3) John McCain
4) Fred Thompson
5) Ron Paul
6) Rudy Giuliani
1) Barack Obama
2) John Edwards
3) Hillary Clinton
Now on to everyone else,
The most likely outcome appears to be:
1st Place: Mitt Romney
2nd Place: Mike Huckabee
3rd Place: Fred Thompson
4th Place: John McCain
…The Democratic field looks to shake out this way:
1st Place: Barack Obama
2nd Place: John Edwards
3rd Place: Hillary Clinton
4th Place: Bill Richardson — Robert Novak
“A couple of notes, though: despite the Des Moines Register poll, Romney should win. Public polls are mixed, but one campaign’s internals put him four to seven points ahead of Huckabee. Romney’s people are playing the expectations game by predicting a tie, but they will not admit the possibility of a loss. The candidate himself has predicted a win, which demonstrates that he is not trying to game expectations by portraying himself as the underdog. And then there’s the fact that Huckabee has sort of done his “going-negative-by-not-going-negative” thing. This could be read in any number of ways, I admit, but campaigns go negative late when they feel they are losing.” — David Freddoso at The Corner
“Iowa Prediction: Edwards 1st, Obama 2nd, Hillary 3rd.” — Justin Gardner at Donklephant
“What the hey…with polls showing both parties completely up for grabs in Iowa, I’ll put my two cents in with predictions.
Republicans: Mitt Romney
Democrats: Hillary Clinton
Second will go to Huckabee and Edwards, respectively. Big losers on the day will be Obama, with a tough-to-swallow third, and Fred Thompson, who will begin the slink off the stage very quickly. Biggest spin will come from Giuliani, who will have to ride through a tough early stretch with enough of his former luster intact to win Florida and stay alive…” — Decision ’08
“The order … Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich. And it will be the last state John Edwards ever carries.” — Dan Conley at Political Insider
“Barack Obama 33
John Edwards 22
Hillary Clinton 20
Mike Huckabee 25
John McCain 20
Mitt Romney 18” — Armstrong Williams at The Hill’s Pundit Blog
“Obama by 3 over Hillary 3 ahead of Edwards.
Gravel and Kucinich last.
The spin? A HUGE win for Obama and he rolls on to the nomination.
Update (Jeralyn): From the plains (and they look like plains to me) — I think Hillary comes in first and Edwards second.
More . . .
Update [2008-1-2 18:14:8 by Big Tent Democrat]: I forgot that those Republicans not crossing over to vote for Obama will also be caucusing tomorrow.
Here I defy the Gold Standard poll and predict Romney winning easily, Huckabee second, and NOT McCain third, infuriating the Media, thus they will ignore it and no positive spin for Romney.” — TalkLeft
“Well, the January 2008 edition of my Punditology Challenge is closed – and 562 folks participated. It’s a group of folks that includes elected officials, local and national political consultants, journalists, bloggers, and plenty of political junkies, activists, and blog readers.
…As a group, 45% believe that John Edwards will win the Iowa caucus, followed by 34% who think Barack Obama will, and 21% who are sure it’s Hillary Clinton.” — BlueOregon
“Barack Obama will win Iowa with 39% of the vote. I believe second choices will break evenly between he and Edwards, but new voters will put him over the top.
John Edwards will perform at the same pace as 2004 and take a strong second with 34% of the vote. While he will do stronger in Eastern Iowa than last time, his numbers in DM will suffer at the hands of Clinton and Obama.
Hillary Clinton will carry 31% of the vote. She will pick up little support on the second vote, but will be in second place on the first vote. Her negatives will drag her down on the second vote. Her support will be strong across the state, but she will not do as well in SE Iowa where Vilsack was to have delivered for her.” — MyDD
7 Hunter” — Michael Illions
Update #1: Election Projection has another round-up of Iowa predictions which you can read here.