Q&A Friday #75: Hillary In 2008

Question: “Hillary seems to have a commanding lead for the Dem nomination from national polls, yet her lead seems to vanish when the polls go to state by state breakdowns. She also doesn’t perform as well as Edwards in most head-to-head polls versus Republicans, even though Edwards is still last among the Dem frontrunners in national polls. This result is consistent across polling outlets so it doesn’t seem to be a function of poll bias. What’s your explanation for this?” — Mike_M

Answer: Well, first off, after looking at a lot of head to head state polls, I can tell you definitively that if the election were today and Hillary were the Democratic nominee, she would handily defeat any of the top tier Republican nominees. So, her lead doesn’t really “vanish.”

That being said, John Edwards does considerably better than Hillary or Barack in head to head state match-ups against Mitt, Fred, or Rudy.

Why?

I tend to think that it’s because he has a completely unearned reputation as a moderate, Southern Democrat while Hillary and Obama are perceived by the general public to be well to his left.

As to why Hillary is beating Obama, well, aside from the fact that he has slightly less experience than Hillary, black Americans make up roughly a quarter of Democratic voters, but there are only a handful of black Democrats in Congress who’ve been elected in Democratic districts that aren’t majority black. In other words, liberals support programs like Affirmative Action because they think blacks are inferior to whites and they don’t want people they regard as their inferiors representing them in Congress — or as their nominee in 2008. Obama has been a rock star during the primary season, but the racists in the Democratic Party will probably prevent him from getting elected.

Then there’s Edwards. Quite frankly, he’s really not all that impressive when you take a hard look at him. He doesn’t come across as a strong, masculine leader and his shtick about “Two Americas” and little girls without coats comes across as faintly ridiculous given how prosperous this country is in general and how wealthy Edwards is, in particular.

Still, it’s ain’t over until it’s over and after Howard Dean’s last minute tailspin into the pavement back in 2004, Hillary would be wise not to count her Spotted Owls until they’re hatched.

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