Senate Race Analysis

02 Nov, 2004 by John Hawkins

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State By State Breakdown

State: South Dakota
Seat Currently Held By: Daschle (D)
Competitors: Daschle (D) Vs. Thune (R)
Last Poll: Zogby Thune +3
Latest RCP poll spread: Thune +1.3
October Polling: Thune wins 3. Daschle wins 1. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Edge to Thune (75/25)

State: Florida
Seat Currently Held By: Graham (D)
Competitors: Martinez (R) Vs. Castor (D)
Last Poll: Fox Castor +6
Latest RCP poll spread: Castor +0.5
October Polling: Martinez wins 9. Castor wins 7. 7 ties.
My Analysis: Toss Up (50/50)

State: Colorado
Seat Currently Held By: Campbell (R)
Competitors: Coors (R) Vs. Salazar (D)
Last Poll: Zogby Salazar +8
Latest RCP poll spread: Salazar +4
October Polling: Salazar wins 7. 3 ties. Coors wins 2.
My Analysis: Edge to Salazar (75/25)

State: Oklahoma
Seat Currently Held By: Nickles (R)
Competitors: Coburn (R) Vs. Carson (D)
Last Poll: Coburn +8
Latest RCP poll spread: Coburn +6.7
October Polling: Coburn wins 10. Carson wins 4.
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention (90/10)

State: Alaska
Seat Currently Held By: Murkowski (R)
Competitors: Murkowski (R) Vs. Knowles (D)
Last Poll: McLaughlin Murkowski +5
Latest RCP poll spread: N/A
October Polling: Knowles wins 2. Murkowski wins 1.
My Analysis: Toss Up (50/50)

State: North Carolina
Seat Currently Held By: Edwards (D)
Competitors: Burr (R) Vs. Bowles (D)
Last Poll: SurveyUSA Burr +5
Latest RCP poll spread: Burr +2.0
October Polling: Burr wins 8. Bowles wins 1. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Edge to Burr (75/25)

State: Louisiana
Seat Currently Held By: Breaux (D)
Competitors: Vitter (R) Vs. Kennedy (D) Vs. John (To avoid a run-off, the winner must crack 50%)
Last Poll: MRI Vitter 47% Vs. Kennedy 15% Vs. John 21%
Latest RCP poll spread: Vitter 43% vs. 33% opponents vs. 24% other/undecided
October Polling: Vitter 44% VS. 33% opponents vs. 23% other/undecided
My Analysis: Edge To Vitter (75/25 chance of hitting 50%)

South Carolina: DeMint (R) picks up a seat held by Hollings (D)
Georgia: Isakson (R) picks up a seat held by Miller (D)
Illinois: Obama (D) picks up a seat held by Fitzgerald (R)

Final Analysis:The GOP is likely to add 3 seats with 1 Republican and 1 Democratic seat that are toss-ups. So the GOP should add +2 to +4 seats in the Senate.

Hat tip to Real Clear Politics for the polling data.