Some Very Early Educated Guesses About The 2006 Elections
The conservative base is completely demoralized right now and furthermore, the President and the Republicans in Congress have terrible polling numbers. However, assuming things don’t get any worse, I think the GOP will still retain control of the House and the Senate.
It’s still early yet, so don’t hold me to these numbers down the road, but at the moment, I’m seeing 6 Senate seats for the GOP that appear, to be in the “danger zone.”
Santorum in Pennsylvania
Burns in Montana
DeWine in Ohio
Talent in Missouri
Chafee in Rhode Island
Frist’s seat, which will be open, in Tennessee
However, chances are, the GOP won’t lose all those seats. They’ll also have a decent chance to pick up a few seats from the Dems. In the House, there are too many races to list, but at the moment, I’d put the Dems in the 5-11 seat pick-up range and they need 15 for a takeover. The Dems are also probably on track to pick-up 2-5 governorships.
Those are not pretty numbers.
But, could the GOP do worse? Yes, especially the way they’re handling illegal immigration, but now’s the time to cross your fingers and hope they’ve sunk about as low as they’re going to get. On the other hand, is there room for improvement? Sure. The Democrats have a knack for self-destructing shortly after they open their big yaps on the campaign trail and the potential is there for big GOP gains at the polls on the economy, Iraq (as troops come home in the summer), and even spending and illegal immigration if we play it right.
You’ve got to hope the Republicans in Washington understand the situation, realize the clock is ticking, and are getting ready to take some substantive steps to shore up support before the elections. If they’re going to make it work, now’s the time to get it going.