State By State Breakdown For The 2004 Election

To get a better idea of which states will be crucial in the 2004 presidential election, I decided to see how the states voted in the last 4 elections. “R” means the state went Republican and “D” means it went for the Democrats.















































































































































































































































































































































































State

1988


1992


1996


 2000

Alabama (9)

R

R

R

 R

Alaska (3)

R

R

R

 R

Arizona (8)

R

R

D

 R

Arkansas (6)

R

D

D

 R

California (54)

R

D

D

 D

Colorado (8)

R

D

R

 R

Connecticut (8)

R

D

D

 D

Delaware (3)

R

D

D

 D

District of Columbia (3)

D

D

D

 D

Florida (25)

R

R

D

 R

Georgia (13)

R

D

R

 R

Hawaii (4)

D

D

D

 D

Idaho (4)

R

R

R

 R

Illinois (22)

R

D

D

 D

Indiana (12)

R

R

R


Iowa (7)

D

D

D

 D

Kansas (6)

R

R

R

 R

Kentucky (8)

R

D

D

 R

Louisiana (9)

R

D

D

 R

Maine (4)

R

D

D

 D

Maryland (10)

R

D

D

 D

Massachusetts (12)

D

D

D

 D

Michigan (18)

R

D

D

 D

Minnesota (10)

D

D

D

 D

Mississippi (7)

R

R

R

 R

Missouri (11)

R

D

D

 R

Montana (3)

R

D

R

 R

Nebraska (5)

R

R

R

 R

Nevada (4)

R

D

D

 R

New Hampshire (4)

R

D

D

 R

New Jersey (15)

R

D

D


New Mexico (5)

R

D

D

 D

New York (33)

D

D

D

 D

North Carolina (14)

R

R

R

 R

North Dakota (3)

R

R

R

 R

Ohio (21)

R

D

D

 R

Oklahoma (8)

R

R

R

 R

Oregon (7)

D

D

D

 D

Pennsylvania (23)

R

D

D

 D

Rhode Island (4)

D

D

D

 D

South Carolina (8)

R

R

R

 R

South Dakota (3)

R

R

R

 R

Tennessee (11)

R

D

D

 R

Texas (32)

R

R

R

 R

Utah (5)

R

R

R

 R

Vermont (3)

R

D

D

 D

Virginia (13)

R

R

R

 R

Washington (11)

D

D

D

 D

West Virginia (5)

D

D

D

 R

Wisconsin (11)

D

D

D

 D

Wyoming (3)

R

R

R

 R

Now once I finished that, I decided to break things down a bit further by using the past performance of each state to anticipate which way they’re going to go in 2004. The number of electoral votes each state had in 2000 is listed in parentheses…

Republican Gimmie (Won 4 Straight & Cracked 55% In 2000): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Indiana (12), Kansas (6), Mississippi (7), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (14) North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (8), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Texas (32) Wyoming (3), Utah (5) — 122

Lean Republican (Won at least 3 out of last 4 including 2000): — Arizona (8), Colorado (8), Florida (25), Georgia (13), Montana (3), Virginia (13) — 70

Toss-Ups: — Arkansas (6) Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Missouri (11), Nevada (4), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (21), Tennessee (11), West Virginia (5) — 79

Lean Democratic (Won 3 out of last 4 including 2000): — California (54), Connecticut (8), Delaware (3), Illinois (22), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Michigan (18), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (23), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (11) — 211

Democratic Gimmie (Won 4 Straight & Cracked 55% In 2000): — District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Massachusetts (12), New York (33), Rhode Island (4) — 56

Now at first glance, it would appear that the Democrats have the advantage. After all, the Republicans have to take all of their gimmies, GOP leaning states & the toss-ups to beat the Democrats whereas the Democrats simply have to take all of the states they should win anyway and 1 toss-up state to pull it out. However, because Bush is going to have a monstrous money advantage over the Democratic candidate, he’ll be able to dogfight it out in every state that’s close while the Democrats may have some tough decisons to make as to where to spend their dollars. Furthermore, Bush should be MUCH STRONGER than he was in 2000 and no Democratic candidate in the race currently is expected to be as a tough a challenge as Gore was in 2000. It’ll be interesting to see how the polling numbers look in the key states after the Democrats select a candidate…

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