The GOP’s Demographic Drop Of Doom In 2006

The New York Times has a fascinating breakdown of exit polling data that goes from 1982 all the way to the present. Here’s how the GOP did this time around with some of the key demographic groups, compared to last mid-terms in 2002 (The first number is the percentage of that group’s vote that the GOP received. The 2nd number in parenthesis, is the percentage change from 2002).

Men: 48% (-8%)
Women: 44% (-6%)
Whites 52% (-8%)
White Protestant: 62% (-8%)
Catholic: 44% (-1%)
Jewish: 12% (-24%)
Black: 11% (+2%)
Hispanic: 30% (-8%)
Asian: 38% (+4%)
Republicans: 92% (-2%)
Democrats: 7% (-3%)
Independents: 41% (-10%)

So if you smooth off the rough edges, the GOP basically had about an 8 point dip across the board in 2006. While that was bad news for the GOP, most of the Democrat wins in the House were in districts that leaned towards the GOP by 3 or 4 points. If the numbers swing back to where they were in 2002 by 2008, which may be very possible with the Dems in charge of Congress, you see the GOP gain back a lot of the ground that they lost this year in the House next time around. In the Senate, there will be a lot more vulnerable Republican seats than Democratic seats, but with the Dems holding the Senate by such a small margin, who knows? Any way you slice it though, those numbers in 2006 for the GOP were just brutal.

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