The GOP’s Top 18 Pick-Up Opportunities In The House For 2006

by John Hawkins | September 8, 2006 4:41 pm

It’s not shaping up to be a great year for the GOP, the Democrats definitely have a big edge, and quite frankly, this is a lean field. Still, the GOP does have some opportunities that we may be able to exploit.

At the moment, as of Sept 8, 2006, here are the best pick-up opportunities the GOP has in the House, split up into 3 tiers:

Tier 1

District: (IL-08)
Seat Currently Held By: Melissa Bean (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: David McSweeney ($473,615)
Opponent + cash on hand: Melissa Bean ($2,175,474)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 44% vs. 56%
Polling: Constituent Dynamics For Aug 27-29:[1] Bean 48% Vs. McSweeney 45%
Webpage: here[2]

District: (GA-12)
Seat Currently Held By: John Barrow (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Max Burns ($733,000)
Opponent + cash on hand: John Barrow (1.3 million)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 49.6% vs. 50.4%
Polling: Internal Poll:[3] Barrow 44% Vs. Burns 43%
Webpage: here[4]

District: (SC-5)
Seat Currently Held By: John Spratt (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Ralph Norman ($733,600)
Opponent + cash on hand: John Spratt ($1.5 million)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 42% vs. 57%
Polling: None Found
Webpage: here[5]

District: (VT-at large)
Seat Currently Held By: Bernie Sanders (Socialist Democrat / Independent)
Candidate + cash on hand: Martha Rainville ($339,221)
Opponent + cash on hand: Peter Welch ($815,988)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 59% vs. 39%
Polling: American Research Group In Late July:[6] Rainville 42% vs. Welch 41%
Webpage: here[7]

District: (TX-17)
Seat Currently Held By: Chet Edwards
Candidate + cash on hand: Van Taylor ($454,453)
Opponent + cash on hand: Chet Edwards ($1,576,787)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 30% Vs. 70%
Polling: None Found
Webpage: here[8]

District: (WV-01)
Seat Currently Held By: Alan B. Mollohan (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Chris Wakim ($318,306)
Opponent + cash on hand: Alan B. Mollohan ($674,593)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 42% vs. 58%
Polling: Constituent Dynamics For Aug 27-29:[1] Mollohan 52% Vs. Wakim 42%
Webpage: here[9]

Tier 2

District:(Oh-6)
Seat Currently Held By:Ted Stickland (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Chuck Blasdel ($290,441)
Opponent + cash on hand: Charlie Wilson ($277,1553)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 49% vs. 51%
Polling: Constituent Dynamics For Aug 27-29:[1] Wilson 56% Vs. Blasdel 40%
Webpage: here[10]

District: (GA-08)
Seat Currently Held By: Jim Marshall (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Mac Collins ($794,256)
Opponent + cash on hand: Jim Marshall ($1,206,784)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 44% vs.55%
Polling: None Found
Webpage: here[11]

District: (IA-03)
Seat Currently Held By: Leonard Boswell (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Jeff Lamberti ($775,105)
Opponent + cash on hand: Leonard Boswell ($1,093,465)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 50 vs. 50
Polling: Constituent Dynamics For Aug 27-29:[1] Boswell 54% Vs. Lamberti 41%
Webpage: here[12]

District: (NC-13)
Seat Currently Held By: Brad Miller (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Vernon Robinson ($466,768)
Opponent + cash on hand: Brad Miller ($540,736)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 52% vs. 47%
Polling: None Found
Webpage: here[13]

District:(LA-03)
Seat Currently Held By: Charles J. Melancon (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Craig Romero ($958,990)
Opponent + cash on hand:Charles J. Melancon ($1,651,630)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 42% vs. 58%
Polling: Anzalone-Lizst Research In Mid-July:[14] 51% to 27%
Webpage: here[15]

District: (CO-3)
Seat Currently Held By: John Salazar (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Scott Tipton ($342,905)
Opponent + cash on hand: John Salazar ($1,177,634)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 44% vs. 55%
Polling: Survey USA In Mid-August:[16] Salazar 53% vs. Tipton 42%
Webpage: here[17]

District: (Il-17)
Seat Currently Held By: Lane Evans
Candidate + cash on hand: Andrea Lane Zinga ($186,783)
Opponent + cash on hand: Phil Hare ($225,747)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 51% vs. 48%
Polling: None Found
Webpage: here[18]

Tier 3

District: (UT-2)
Seat Currently Held By: Jim Matheson (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Lavar Christensen ($102,234)
Opponent + cash on hand: Jim Matheson ($1,029,402)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 31% to 66%
Polling: None Found
Webpage: here[19]

District: OH-13
Seat Currently Held By: Sherrod Brown
Candidate + cash on hand: Craig Foltin ($151,454)
Opponent + cash on hand: Betty Sutton ($194,037)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 56% vs. Bush 44%
Polling: None Found
Webpage: here[20]

District: (LA-02)
Seat Currently Held By: William Jefferson (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Joe Lavigne ($198,462)
Opponent + cash on hand: William Jefferson ($321,633)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 75% vs. 24%
Polling: Mercury Public Affairs:[21]: Jefferson 31.3% vs. Lavigne 29.4%
Webpage: here[22]

District: (WA-02)
Seat Currently Held By: Rick Larsen (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Doug Roulstone ($383,994)
Opponent + cash on hand: Rick Larsen ($886,431)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 51% vs. 47%
Polling: None Found
Webpage: here[23]

District: (PA-12th)
Seat Currently Held By: John Murtha (D)
Candidate + cash on hand: Diane Irey ($159,138)
Opponent + cash on hand: John Murtha ($1,804,695)
Kerry vs. Bush in 2004: 51 vs. 49
Polling: None Found
Webpage: here[24]

* No polling done prior to Mid-July was included since, at this late date, it’s virtually meangingless.

PS: You can donate to many of these candidates through Rightroots[25].

Endnotes:
  1. Constituent Dynamics For Aug 27-29:: http://www.constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/pdf/racesummary.pdf
  2. here: http://www.davidmcsweeney.com/
  3. Internal Poll:: http://www.constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/pdf/racesummary.pdf
  4. here: http://www.burnsforcongress.com/
  5. here: http://www.ralphnorman.com/
  6. American Research Group In Late July:: http://www.scudderparker.com/viewarticle.php?id=121
  7. here: http://www.martharainville.com/
  8. here: http://vantaylor.com/
  9. here: http://www.chriswakim.com/
  10. here: http://www.blasdelforcongress.com/
  11. here: http://www.collinsforcongress.com/
  12. here: http://www.jefflamberti.com/about_jl.asp
  13. here: http://www.vernonrobinson.com/
  14. Anzalone-Lizst Research In Mid-July:: http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache:2zS4BoOXyj8J:www.melanconforcongress.org/81805.htm+romero+melancon+poll&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=3
  15. here: http://www.craigromero.com
  16. Survey USA In Mid-August:: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=e97d354a-be6d-4738-b713-2be80bd7bf3a
  17. here: http://www.tiptonforcongress.com/
  18. here: http://www.andrealanezinga.com/
  19. here: http://www.lavarforcongress.com/site/index.php
  20. here: http://www.foltinforcongress.com/content.aspx?PID=1
  21. Mercury Public Affairs:: http://www.joelavigne.com/newspages/2006/08/poll-numbers-show-joe-lavigne-tied.html
  22. here: http://www.joelavigne.com/
  23. here: http://www.roulstone4congress.com
  24. here: http://www.irey.com/
  25. Rightroots: http://www.abcpac.com/rightroots/

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