The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (6th Edition)

It’s time to reevaluate the Senate races again for next to last time before the election. The higher the rating is, the greater the chance is that the seat might change parties.

Dark Horse Races: (These are real long shot races)

15) Mark Kennedy (R) vs. Amy Klobuchar (D) (Dem Seat)
14) Maria Cantwell* (D) vs. Mike McGavick (R)
13) Jon Kyl* (R) vs. Jim Pederson (D)
12) John Ensign* (R) vs. Jack Carter

Competitive: (The challengers are behind, but within striking distance.)

11) Debbie Stabenow* (D) vs. Mike Bouchard (R)
10) George Allen* (R) vs. James Webb (D)
9) Michael Steele (R) vs. Ben Cardin (D) (Dem Seat)
8) Robert Menendez* (D) vs. Tom Kean (R)

Dogfights: (If election were today, it would be a coin flip.)

7) Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford (D) (Rep Seat)
6) Jim Talent* (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D)

Danger Zone: (If the election were today, there would be a take-over.)

5) Conrad Burns* (R) vs. John Tester (D)
4) Lincoln Chafee* (R) vs. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
3) Mike DeWine* (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
2) Rick Santorum* (R) vs. Bob Casey (D)
1) Joe Lieberman* (I) vs. Ned Lamont (D) vs. Alan Schlesinger (R)

PS #1: Incumbents are marked with an asterisk.

PS #2: Lieberman’s seat would flip if he won, since he is running as an independent.

PS #3: A Senate seat wild guesstimate based on the numbers that are out today: Republicans (51), Democrats (47), and Independents that would vote for Democratic control of the House (2).

PS #4: Burns seems to be showing some positive momentum and has a decent cash advantage, but will enough undecideds break his way in a conservative state for him to pull out the surprise victory? Talent has an enormous cash on hand advantage which bodes well for his chances in a toss-up race. Bouchard and Steele have single polls showing they’ve closed, but we need more data to see how real the movement is. Ominously, Ford has a cash on hand advantage over Corker.

Also see,

The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (1st Edition)
The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (2nd Edition)
The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (3rd Edition)
The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (4th Edition)
The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (5th Edition)

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