Your 2008 Presidential Nominees Are…by W.C. Varones

20 Jun, 2006 by John Hawkins

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As conservatives, we believe in the wisdom of the markets. We believe that the free market is better at allocating capital than government planners. We note that communism caused the USSR to collapse, and socialism has caused stagnation in Old Europe, while the U.S. and other relatively free-market economies (Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, the UK) have thrived.

I also believe in the wisdom of the markets in predicting future events. I think stock markets are pretty hard to beat because they represent the sum of all views of all market participants. Similarly, I think that betting markets are good predictors of political outcomes. Any yahoo can spout an opinion on a TV show, but the betting markets are people putting actual money on the line.

Via Tradesports.com, an early look at the market’s view of the 2008 Presidential race:

For the Democratic Nominee:

Candidate Probability
Hillary Clinton 44%
Mark Warner 21%
Al Gore 15%
John Edwards 6%
John Kerry 4%

And for the Republican Nominee:

Candidate Probability
John McCain 40%
George Allen 17%
Mitt Romney 12%
Rudy Giuliani 10%
Condoleezza Rice 5%

Other points: Senate control is 81% to stay with the Republicans… House control is 50/50… 2008 Presidential race is dead even.

As I said, I think the markets are pretty efficient… but I still like to take a bet from time to time. If I had to bet, I’d short Hillary and McCain. I might even buy a little Obama, who is going for just 2 cents.

This content was used with the permission of Polipundit.

(Hawkins’ Note: I don’t agree with the way the Tradesports rankings are currently panning out, but it’s always interesting to see which candidates conventional wisdom says will carry the day.)