UN IPCC 95% Sure That All Warming Is Caused By Humans

Unlike during the 99.9999999% of the history of the planet Earth

(Climate change: forecast for 2100 is floods and heat … and it’s man’s fault )

Climate scientists have concluded that temperatures could jump by up to 9F (5C) and sea levels could rise by up to 2ft 8ins (82cm) by the end of the century, according to a leaked draft of a United Nations report.

Interesting. Does this mean that the 17 year pause in statistically significant warming, which some data shows has actually been flatlined and even going down since 2000, is Mankind’s fault? Knowing Warmists, the answer would be “yes”. No matter what happens with the weather, they’ll jump in their fossil fueled vehicles to head to a rally to Blame Mankind.

I do enjoy their prognostications, though. There’s been an increase of about 1.74F since 1850. During the 20th Century, the IPCC itself states that the increase was only 1.33F (.76C). Yet now they expect up to 9F, after a 17 year pause? Sea level has been completely within the average of the last 7,000 years of 6-8 inches per century. Remember, we get averages by adding various numbers. There have been hot and cool periods flipping back and forth during the Holocene, so we should have seen more sea rise, and accelerated sea rise, during the 20th, and especially the late 20th. We haven’t.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also said there was a 95 per cent likelihood that global warming is caused by human activities. That was the highest assessment so far from the IPCC, which put the figure at 90 per cent in a previous report in 2007, 66 per cent in 2001, and just over 50 per cent in 1995.

Of course they have. And then they’ll jump in potentially hundreds of fossil fueled private jets to fly off to the COP19 in Warsaw this year to complain about Other People using fossil fuels. Anthony Watts is surprised they haven’t gone for “97%”. But, they have to keep the money train going, and need to attempt to keep “climate change” relevant, so they have to Blame Man in ever increasing percentages while ignoring what effects nature has.

It will also say evidence of rising sea levels is “unequivocal”. The report projects seas will rise by between 1ft and 2ft 8ins by the late 21st century. In 2007 the estimated rise was between 7ins and 23ins, but that did not fully account for changes in Antarctica and Greenland.

Antarctica has been cooling, except for one small area. The melt from Greenland has been very much overestimated. Furthermore, a warmer Greenland is nothing that hasn’t happened before, many times, during the Holocene.

The IPCC will try to explain why global temperatures, have risen more slowly since about 1998 even though greenhouse gas concentrations have hit record highs in that time. It could be due to a combination of ash from volcanoes dimming sunlight, a decline in heat from the sun during the solar cycle, and the possibility that the climate may be less sensitive than expected to carbon dioxide build-up.

Got that? When it’s not warming, they’ll blame it on nature. When it’s warming, it’s all Mankind. Expect, though, for the Warmists at the UN to find more and more, as well as creative, because they are fiction writers, ya know, ways to Blame Mankind. We should probably see more of the “the heat is doing a Where’s Waldo? in the deep oceans” meme.

And it will be based on computer models, which have failed spectacularly, and can’t even predict past warming, rather than empirical real world data.

Anyone want to guess what the Gore Effect will be on the day that they release the report?

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach.

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