Here We Go: Another Climatologist Prognosticates That World Will Warm Faster Than Feared

by William Teach | January 2, 2014 8:07 am

You do have to admire the stick-to-it-ness of Warmists, who are more dogmatic than followers of Charles Manson and Jim Jones, Heaven’s Gate Church or Westboro Baptist nuts

(Telegraph[1]) As the planet marked its fourth hottest year on record, a study published in the journal Nature found increasing levels of carbon dioxide will lead to thinner ocean clouds and reduce their cooling impact, causing temperature rises of at least 5.6F (3C) over the course of the century.

The team of scientists said the findings show some climate models have been too “optimistic” and previous estimates of a minimum temperature rise of only 2.7F (1.5C) could now be discounted. The optimistic models did not properly assess the impact of water evaporation, which sometimes rises only a short distance into the atmosphere and causes updraughts that reduce cloud cover, the study found.

”These models have been predicting a lower climate sensitivity but we believe they’re incorrect,” Professor Steven Sherwood, from the University of New South Wales, told The Sydney Morning Herald.

”The net effect of [climate change] is you have less cloud cover.”

This is truly hilarious. And typical garbage in-garbage out soothsaying

(No Tricks Zone[2]) Because of the huge uncertainties involved in climate modeling, Prof. Essex, a leading international expert in computer modeling, calls projections for decades and centuries ahead using even today’s state of the art “Welcome to Wonderland”. The climate system is just too complex and it would take even today’s most powerful computer billions of years to run through a proper algorithm.

The results that today’s models put out are based on the crude assumptions that get fed in. When a model maker guesses that the globe is going to heat up, then that’s what his model will show.

No Tricks Zone highlights this explanation of how well the models have worked so far (which I highlighted yesterday, as well)

87 0f 90 models have failed. The actual global temperatures have fallen outside the prognostication of the models. There’s been no statistically significant warming in 17 years. Since 1990 there’s been a miniscule increase of 0.28F. Since 1997 just 0.14F. No child born this century has seen warming. (see this chart of real world data[3] at Real Science)

Now, as P Gosselin at No Tricks Zone points out, maybe Prof. Sherwood ends up being correct. Because nature is a chaotic system. And previous warm periods during the Holocene were much warmer. What Warmists are doing is simply guessing based on very expensive computer models.

Nice to see one of them actually include water vapor. Of course, NASA satellite data actually shows a decrease in water vapor[4]. And cloud cover, while it can trap heat, is more associated with a long term cooling period. Anyhow, people in the North should have fun with all the global warming snow[5] and wind and cold and ice from Winter Storm Hercules (seriously, Weather Channel? Seriously?)

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove[6]. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach[7].

  1. Telegraph:
  2. No Tricks Zone:
  3. real world data:
  4. decrease in water vapor:
  5. global warming snow:
  6. Pirate’s Cove:
  7. @WilliamTeach:

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