by William Teach | March 8, 2013 9:18 am
(NY Times) Scientists say that if natural factors were still governing the climate, the Northern Hemisphere would probably be destined to freeze over again in several thousand years. “We were on this downward slope, presumably going back toward another ice age,” Dr. Marcott said.
Instead, scientists believe the enormous increase in greenhouse gases caused by industrialization will almost certainly prevent that.
As Open Blogger at Ace of Spades points out “can someone explain to me again why mile thick glaciers over the northern states are desirable again? I missed that explanation the first time.”
This is all in conjunction with the new and breathtakingly alarmist report about “The Scariest Hotcoldwetdry Graph Just Got Scarier“. Of course, Mother Jones climate astrologer calls it “climate change”, not hotcoldwetdry. All sorts of other Warmists are freaking out and saying Something Has To Be Done, yet none are calling for Warmists to change their own behavior and give up fossil fuels. Strange that, eh?
Even if the temperature increase from human activity that is projected for later this century comes out on the low end of estimates, scientists said, the planet will be at least as warm as it was during the warmest periods of the modern geological era, known as the Holocene, and probably warmer than that.
So, it was actually warmer during the Holocene?
That epoch began about 12,000 years ago, after changes in incoming sunshine caused vast ice sheets to melt across the Northern Hemisphere. Scientists believe the moderate climate of the Holocene set the stage for the rise of human civilization roughly 8,000 years ago and continues to sustain it by, for example, permitting a high level of food production.
Humans have done better during this warmer period than during a glacial period? Who would have thought that?
In the new research, scheduled for publication on Friday in the journal Science, Shaun Marcott, an earth scientist at Oregon State University, and his colleagues compiled the most meticulous reconstruction yet of global temperatures over the past 11,300 years, virtually the entire Holocene. They used indicators like the distribution of microscopic, temperature-sensitive ocean creatures to determine past climate.
Anthony Watts has a few things to say about the data and methods, and is not impressed. The GWFP notes
In the paper, and in the many press reports of it, it said that the climate has been warming since the industrial revolution kicked into gear, and that the two are related via greenhouse gas emissions. But prior to 1950 anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions were to weak to have an a significant effect on the atmosphere. It is implausible to suggest that mankind’s greenhouse gas emissions in the 19th century were changing the climate causing global temperature rise.
And there’s the rub of the matter: CO2 and other GHG emissions were at low levels when this “spike” started, not enough to have any sort of real effect. In fact, some have suggested that all the smoke and other particulates from the industrial revolution (which has given Warmists the cushy lifestyles that allow them the time to decry Other People’s modern lifestyles) would have blocked sunlight and decreased temps. What we have here is a casual link without proof of anthropogenic causation. It simply implies that Mankind is at fault without definitive proof.
What caused the end of the last glacial period? The study says the Sun and other natural factors. What caused the other warm periods during the Holocene, interspersed with cool periods? The study says the Sun and other natural factors. Why can’t that be the answer now, with a small percent caused by anthropogenic factors (many of which are localized, not global)?
But, again, if you Believers truly believe, you’ll make your own lives “carbon neutral.”
Crossed at Pirate’s Cove. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach.
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